William M. Briggs

Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example

Time series are the most abused statistics in the physical sciences. (It's an endless, raucous, peer-reviewed contest for the worst in the "soft sciences.") The Mann problem (is that a…

Philosophy Statistics

Physical Probability Doesn’t Exist

There have been many attempts to tie probability to physical chance. Here, briefly and for discussion, is why I think all of them fail. Ontology does not recapitulate epistemology Let…

Book review Philosophy

True Reason: Confronting the Irrationality of the New Atheism Reviewed

Answer me honestly. How rational is it to believe any of the following: Science can explain everything, even itself; The reason anything exists is because of the laws of gravity,…

Culture

Trigger Warnings And The Feminismization Of America

Update New & Improved title! I think it was Clint Eastwood who, as Dirty Harry, gave the world's most famous trigger warning: I know what you're thinking: "Did he fire…

Culture

Global Warming Update: Titanic Sunk! Contest Update: Other Historical Events. Update: Not Me!

Been a while since I looked out the climate window, because why? Because I figured there'd be nothing to see. After two decades of failed forecasts I assumed most modelers…

Culture Philosophy

Animals Suing People, People Suing Animals: Lawyers Rejoice

An increasing crime rate Regular readers will know both of my deep interest in animal rights and in the law. This is why, as a side business, but always pro…

Culture

Punishment Of Pre-Thoughtcrime On The Rise: You Could Be Next

Certain Canadians have been tried, convicted, and sentenced for pre-thoughtcrime. Bound to have happened, you will say, especially given events such as the howling drooling hate-filled mob that terrorized Brandon…

Culture Statistics

A New Possible Solution Of Fermi’s Paradox

What is the probability the following proposition is true? ``There are rational beings other than humans in the universe." Well, given the evidence of angels, who are rational non-human beings,…

shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…
Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…
Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
hudbwu, You could be right.
hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…
Lucy Tucker on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 5, 2026
I’m ready to give up the right to vote.

William M. Briggs

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series

Who Still Listens To AM Radio?

Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins

What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

Why The Drake Equation Fails

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example

Physical Probability Doesn’t Exist

True Reason: Confronting the Irrationality of the New Atheism Reviewed

Trigger Warnings And The Feminismization Of America

Global Warming Update: Titanic Sunk! Contest Update: Other Historical Events. Update: Not Me!

Animals Suing People, People Suing Animals: Lawyers Rejoice

Punishment Of Pre-Thoughtcrime On The Rise: You Could Be Next

A New Possible Solution Of Fermi’s Paradox

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification