William M. Briggs

Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example

Time series are the most abused statistics in the physical sciences. (It's an endless, raucous, peer-reviewed contest for the worst in the "soft sciences.") The Mann problem (is that a…

Philosophy Statistics

Physical Probability Doesn’t Exist

There have been many attempts to tie probability to physical chance. Here, briefly and for discussion, is why I think all of them fail. Ontology does not recapitulate epistemology Let…

Book review Philosophy

True Reason: Confronting the Irrationality of the New Atheism Reviewed

Answer me honestly. How rational is it to believe any of the following: Science can explain everything, even itself; The reason anything exists is because of the laws of gravity,…

Culture

Trigger Warnings And The Feminismization Of America

Update New & Improved title! I think it was Clint Eastwood who, as Dirty Harry, gave the world's most famous trigger warning: I know what you're thinking: "Did he fire…

Culture

Global Warming Update: Titanic Sunk! Contest Update: Other Historical Events. Update: Not Me!

Been a while since I looked out the climate window, because why? Because I figured there'd be nothing to see. After two decades of failed forecasts I assumed most modelers…

Culture Philosophy

Animals Suing People, People Suing Animals: Lawyers Rejoice

An increasing crime rate Regular readers will know both of my deep interest in animal rights and in the law. This is why, as a side business, but always pro…

Culture

Punishment Of Pre-Thoughtcrime On The Rise: You Could Be Next

Certain Canadians have been tried, convicted, and sentenced for pre-thoughtcrime. Bound to have happened, you will say, especially given events such as the howling drooling hate-filled mob that terrorized Brandon…

Culture Statistics

A New Possible Solution Of Fermi’s Paradox

What is the probability the following proposition is true? ``There are rational beings other than humans in the universe." Well, given the evidence of angels, who are rational non-human beings,…

Uncle Mike on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 25, 2026
C-Marie, for you to look up on this special day: "Chaire Kecharitomene"
C-Marie on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 25, 2026
Maybe sooner, is our individual going home to Heaven!! God bless, C-Marie
Brian (bulaoren) on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 24, 2026
@Lucy Tucker I'm not sure what your ?s refer to. My comment was related to an old doctor's joke; A…
Lucy Tucker on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 24, 2026
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Lucy Tucker on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 24, 2026
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William M. Briggs

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example

Physical Probability Doesn’t Exist

True Reason: Confronting the Irrationality of the New Atheism Reviewed

Trigger Warnings And The Feminismization Of America

Global Warming Update: Titanic Sunk! Contest Update: Other Historical Events. Update: Not Me!

Animals Suing People, People Suing Animals: Lawyers Rejoice

Punishment Of Pre-Thoughtcrime On The Rise: You Could Be Next

A New Possible Solution Of Fermi’s Paradox

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification