William M. Briggs

Armed EPA Ignores Subpoena, Conducts Secret Science, More!

Call the EPA's rule-making Nancy-Pelosi science: you must first pass the regulations before you find out the evidence for them. No: That's not quite right. Because even after its regulations…

Philosophy Statistics

On The Evidence From Experiments: Part II

Read Part I first. Outcome 3. This sound like good news for you, since all treatment Bobs got better and no placebo Bobs did. Congratulations! The treatment might have caused…

Statistics

The Political Science Of The IPCC

Since the IPCC festival begins this week, I'm alternating posts like this with the series started yesterday. In this thing called Science, just as in other human affairs, one can…

Philosophy Statistics

On The Evidence From Experiments: Part I

This is going to start slow, unwind at a leisurely pace, and finish, for some, with a depressing conclusion, though we won't get there today. Here's the setup. You've invented…

Culture

Pope Francis’s Mega Interview: Music & Literature Recommendations

I liked this new pope from the beginning, and for the weakest of all reasons. He looks a bit like my (deceased) maternal grandfather (who taught me to fish). He…

Culture

On-Line Courses Not Faring Well—As Expected

Two months back I made the non-joke that MOOC's---massive off-line open courses---were not new, not "revolutionary", and were therefore not going to "change the face of education as we know…

Culture Statistics

Abortion Safety: Doctors V. Nurses & Physician Assistants & Midwives—Part II

Update 4 Too late. 10 October 2013. Update 4 Moved this to top because the bill allowing non-doctors to perform abortions is on Gov. Brown's desk. He'll likely sign, but…

Statistics

How To Mislead With P-values: Logistic Regression Example

Today's evidence is not new; is, in fact, well known. Well, make that just plain known. It's learned and then forgotten, dismissed. Everybody knows about these kinds of mistakes, but…

McChuck on Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death PenaltyMay 11, 2026
I firmly support the concept of "three strikes and you're out" as it applies to capital punishment for a series…
McChuck on Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death PenaltyMay 11, 2026
Capital punishment may or may not (although it almost certainly does) reduce criminality in the general sense. But it undeniably…
dadgervais on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 8, 2026
As I (computer engineer, retired) have always maintained: people who believe in mechanical inteligence suffer from "Clever Hans Syndrome". A…
NLR on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 7, 2026
It appears that Dawkins does not have a well thought out philosophy of consciousness and so he has psyched himself…
jgh on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 7, 2026
There's an episode of Golden Balls where one contentant understood how The Prisoners' Dilemma worked and succcessfully tricked his opponent…

William M. Briggs

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model