William M. Briggs

Women Do Not Have A Right To Do Whatever They Want With Their Bodies

Over the weekend Yours Truly tweeted this: https://twitter.com/mattstat/status/262583368246497280 Within five minutes of posting, I lost seven Twitter followers, people presumably displeased with the entry. Since this is me, I first…

Statistics

Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?

It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…

Culture

The Downside Of Technology: Being On Call 24/7—Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell (with pic!)

Let me first say that I am a modest person with a modest existence. I have a job, which is nothing special, but I do it well. I have a…

Philosophy

Academic Philosopher Finds New Way To Dehumanize People; Calls For Beetroot Liberation

Update Now with new and improved title! (Title writing is a talent which your humble author possesses not.) In the classic 1978 documentary Attack of the Killer Tomatoes! we watch…

Statistics

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…

Culture

Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded

Do you feel that chill? It's from a fell wind issuing from an Italian judge's courtroom, where he has just sent a group of seismologists and one politician to the…

Statistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…

Philosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

The debate between the three views is ancient, and extremely complicated. It can also seem at first glance to be very dry, esoteric, and irrelevant to practical life. But nothing…

JH on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 19, 2025
Do you want me to deny the fact that a mathematical or probability model carries specific interpretations based on its…
Chaeremon on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 19, 2025
the current state of affair does not real world competition: all vendors only compete against dead examples; I suggest the…
Uncle Mike on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 19, 2025
Yeah well, this morning I caught Siri talking to Alexa about ChatGPT. They want to eat your electricity. They said,…
Pk on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 18, 2025
Suppose I wrote a program to perform multiple linear regressions of varying degrees and varying transformations. The program would return…
NLR on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJune 18, 2025
One might wonder why, after billions of dollars spent building up infrastructure, paying workers to program and "train" (calibrate) this…

William M. Briggs

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?

A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food

What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?

Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance

The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

Women Do Not Have A Right To Do Whatever They Want With Their Bodies

Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?

The Downside Of Technology: Being On Call 24/7—Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell (with pic!)

Academic Philosopher Finds New Way To Dehumanize People; Calls For Beetroot Liberation

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification