William M. Briggs

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Statistics

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…

Cary Cotterman on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
More than seventy years of experience with dog ownership has made the fact clear to me that dogs squat pointing…
Uncle Mike on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
The afterstory: three of the authors are now university presidents, and one is head of NSA.
shawn marshall on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
for sure you have identified a scienterrific study full of dog poop
Brian (bulaoren) on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
Well, a lot of current research product orients toward the left.
McChuck on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
Perhaps the dogs prefer not to stare into the morning and evening sun? How does one measure the "calmness" of…

William M. Briggs

Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?

Lewontin’s Other Fallacy: Race & Intelligence

Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The Species

A New Kind Of University: Your Comments Wanted

Bad Black Health Blamed On Slavery

Is Moral Certainty Possible?

We Passed Peak “Climate Change” (um) Research

Sweet Wee Ps Say Sugar Makes You Lose Your Mind

AI Is Neither Artificial Nor Intelligent

You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason Arday

Academics: Achieve Sustainability by Easing Population to 4 Billion by 2200

The Impossibility of Proposition Nations

Ugly Women Rulers Condemn Lookism

The Wee P Boogie: The Song That’s Sweeping the Nation!

Wolfgang Smith For Everyone

Death By Organ Donation

$7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?

Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap Hanekamp

Believing In God Makes You Crave Potato Chips, Say Academics

Hume’s Guillotine, Euclid’s Catapult: Induction, Axioms, and Objective Ethics

University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEing

Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?

Lewontin’s Other Fallacy: Race & Intelligence

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification