William M. Briggs

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Statistics

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…

Ultrarightist on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 29, 2026
Briggs, Thanks for the reply and the information. That is unfortunate. Hardbacks aren't made like they used to be, and…
McChuck on Class 99: Entropy Part IOctober 29, 2026
Entropy is described as a numerical rating of chaos. This is more confusing than not, and a poor descriptor, even…
Briggs on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026
Ultrarightist, Apparently not: They use case laminate (also called adhesive case binding or image-wrap) construction: The page block is glued…
Cary Cotterman on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026
Most book stores have a rack where employees put new books they've read, accompanied by short, usually hand-written reviews. It's…
Brian (bulaoren) on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026
Hi Doc' May your new volume be a great success! Meanwhile, I'm hoping someone will write a book called; "The…

William M. Briggs

Class 99: Entropy Part I

Book Update: Launch Date

Reading Bryan Johnson’s The Immortalism Manifesto

Class 98: Limitations of Genetic Associations With Personality

I’m Thinking Of A Number Between 1 and 5 (that you can’t guess)

Against Numerology: Some Basic Calculations

Class 97: The Goal Of Models

Book Update

Sexual Assault Galore At Cornell

Class 96: Can Bayesianism Quantify True Belief?

Top 10 Reasons AI Will Never Become Superintelligence: It Won’t Destroy Nor Save Us

Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?

Academics Call For The Killing Of Babies In “After-Birth” Abortions

Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the Ants

Class 95: Answering P-Value Good Uses Challenges

Whoring For Climate Change

Lady Academics Tire Of Being Judged By Peer Review

Class 94: Quantifying The Unquantifiable

PFAS and Preservatives: Entrenching Chemophobia through Everyday Stuff — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

The MRS Degree — Guest Post by Johnathan Edwards

Politicians Demand “Right” To Be Protected Against AI

Class 99: Entropy Part I

Book Update: Launch Date

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification