William M. Briggs

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Statistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…

Culture

Rioting Is An Ecstatic, Spiritual Experience: Or, Structural Sin Made Me Do It

"Rioting"---which is to say, looting, rampaging, vandalizing, engaging in wanton mayhem and violence, and generally acting very badly---"can be, literally, an ecstatic spiritual experience." So says the is-he Right Reverend…

Culture Fun

A Depressing [Real Sad] Churchill Quotation—Contest

As I this morning scanned Facebook, I ran across the image below. Read it through and pause for a moment before continuing. Notice anything strange? I was so intrigued by…

Robert on The Sad End Of RadioJuly 12, 2025
Not only has AM radio declined, shortwave radio has too. Both were great as methods for receiving information using very…
Neil Upton on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 10, 2025
some time ago it was said that to ensure a research grant the proposal should make reference to global boiling.…
Uncle Mike on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025
The Climate Catastrophe paradigm is dead. RIP. The old adherents are howling at the moon, but Science has moved on.…
Cloudbuster on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025
"New York and Ohio, which are cool" Please explain to my sweat glands how Ohio is cool so I shouldn't…
Cary Cotterman on What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s StudyJuly 8, 2025
There is a significant correlation between golf and the wearing of ugly pants.

William M. Briggs

Class 57: The Second Best Model

Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea

What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s Study

The Unseen Bias In All Science

The Sad End Of Radio

Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!

Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Class 57: The Second Best Model

Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

Rioting Is An Ecstatic, Spiritual Experience: Or, Structural Sin Made Me Do It

A Depressing [Real Sad] Churchill Quotation—Contest

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification