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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Posted by By Briggs April 27, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Does Barack Obama Have A Mandate? A Look At The Numbers

How important was Barack Obama's victory? By what measure can he be said to have secured a "mandate"? How does his election compares to others? And how do voters in…
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Posted inStatistics

Use And Abuses Of Decision Analysis: Global Warming Example

Suppose we have a simple decision to make1: implement a government-takeover of all energy companies, so as to regulate with thoroughness their carbon budgets, or leave these entities as they…
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Posted inStatistics

A Citizen’s Guide to Global Warming Evidence

Was it only me? I thought Chicken Little dead. After all, when was the last time we heard competent authority shouting "Only the government can stop the sky from falling!"?…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Genetic Engineering To Create New Super Moral Race: Savulescu Strikes Again

On the road, so here is a classic post from not too long ago. The appalling Julian Savulescu1 is back, this time staining the pages of the British edition of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A Statistician’s Lament

Regular readers (those wanting to catch up, click here) will know that the world is far too sure of itself, especially in areas which touch on human behavior, and most…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Changing Attitudes On Suicide And Euthanasia

We had such fun with abortion attitudes, today this: From the General Social Survey, a picture of the support for suicide and euthanasia by reason from 1977 until 20061. GSS…
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Posted inStatistics

Paul “Population Bomb” Ehrlich Asks, “Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?” Yes, Paul. Yes It Can

Paul Ehrlich in 1968 predicted that a devastating human Population Bomb would immanently wreak untold havoc upon the world. He was later derided, ridiculed, blasted, razzed, heckled, savaged, tweaked, tormented,…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Support For Abortion by Reason: Mother’s Health Tops List: Attitudes Are Inconsistent

From the General Social Survey, a picture of the support for abortion by reason from 1972 until 20061. GSS questions on abortions are asked of about 1,000 (order of magnitude)…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

  2. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…

  3. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I rephrased the question to remove "red" and "blue" priming words and asked the wife: "Space aliens create two buttons,…

  4. Cary D Cotterman on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    If the colors of the buttons reflect the same ideological sides they do in current discourse, then disappearing the blue…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    As you suggested, I have, so far, read nothing beyond the question. What is not clear to me is...Do the…

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