William M. Briggs

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Statistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…

Culture

Rioting Is An Ecstatic, Spiritual Experience: Or, Structural Sin Made Me Do It

"Rioting"---which is to say, looting, rampaging, vandalizing, engaging in wanton mayhem and violence, and generally acting very badly---"can be, literally, an ecstatic spiritual experience." So says the is-he Right Reverend…

Culture Fun

A Depressing [Real Sad] Churchill Quotation—Contest

As I this morning scanned Facebook, I ran across the image below. Read it through and pause for a moment before continuing. Notice anything strange? I was so intrigued by…

Statistics

Does Averaging Incorrect Data Give A Result That Is Less Incorrect? Climate Modeling

Another question from the statistics mailbag: Dear Matt: I recently got into a discussion with a CAGW "believer" and of course the discussion turned to global average temperature (whatever that…

spetzer86 on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025
I'm assuming they only asked pilots of fixed-wing aircraft and not those rotary-wing pilots flying in the Washington, DC area.
spetzer86 on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025
A person could still game your system by doing something complicated but not impossible. For example, repeatedly selecting one card…
hudbwu on New Definition Of Death To Increase Organ Harvest BountyAugust 7, 2025
> Today they take people who docs declare are in “irreversible coma” etc. and not “brain dead”. They are wheeled…
hudbwu on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025
A simple way to improve the study is to fire the subjects that don't fulfil some perfomance criterion. That would…
Lou on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025
Hello, Class 60: I am sticking with it, and its not at all too difficult. Please keep going at your…

William M. Briggs

Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1

Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The Science

Academics Say It’s Morally Obligatory To Bioengineer Ticks To Stop You Eating Meat

New Definition Of Death To Increase Organ Harvest Bounty

Class 59: The Hardest Hypothesis In The World

The If I Were God Fallacy & Evolution

Universities Need To Be Made To Lose Prestige

Only Credentialed Artists Can Appreciate This

Does Watching TV Cause Autism?

Peer-Reviewed Research: Men Find Looking At Nearly Naked Women Distracting

A Week’s Vacation

Class 58: Hypothesis Testing Is All Wrong

Vegetarians Crave Power And Success More Than Meat Eaters Do, Study Finds

Jung’s Synchronicity & Coincidence

Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?

Class 57: The Second Best Model

Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea

What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s Study

The Unseen Bias In All Science

The Sad End Of Radio

Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!