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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Posted by By Briggs April 27, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inFun Statistics

Predictions 2013—Register Yours Today!

Time for our annual guessing game about what's to come for 2013. The predictions we made for 2012 will be posted and analyzed tomorrow. We have one week to enter…
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Posted inStatistics

The Curious Case Of Professor Richard Parncutt; Or, Death To Deniers And The Pope!

Austrian professor Richard Parncutt1 has called for folks like me to hunted down and, for his pleasure, shoved into gas chambers. I jest not. He really did say that "influential"…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Is Anything Really Right or Wrong? Speech by Peter Kreeft

Lazy Friday, so here's a fun video from Peter Kreeft. In it Kreeft offers half a dozen refutations of moral relativism, and then a similar number of proofs of absolutism.…
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Posted inCulture Fun

Logan’s Run: A Progressive Utopia

I heard they were (possibly) remaking Logan's Run and I wondered why. It's not that the original was terrific or timeless, but it did tell one essential truth: what life…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

The Dismal Removing Freedoms Saves Money Argument

Here is an example of an argument which you will hear with increasing frequency. A month or so ago on the Fox News Special Report panel the participants were discussing…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

A Christmas Play In One Act

This post originally ran two years ago. Then current events inspired the post; events haven't changed much since then. Scene: Night Court, Manhattan; a date in the near future. Players:…
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Posted inStatistics

Shocking New Study: Males Play More Sports Than Non-Males

The peer-reviewed paper "A Sex Difference in the Predisposition for Physical Competition: Males Play Sports Much More than Females Even in the Contemporary U.S" by Robert O. Deaner and a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

In Defense Of Peter Kreeft: A Response To Brafford

Peter Kreeft, a philosopher whose surname does not sound like it is spelled, placed in Touchstone the article "Clashing Symbols: The Loss of Aristotelian Logic & the Social, Moral, &…
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  1. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  2. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

  4. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…

  5. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I rephrased the question to remove "red" and "blue" priming words and asked the wife: "Space aliens create two buttons,…

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