William M. Briggs

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Milton Hathaway on Good Vs Bad Science (Models) & How You Can Tell The Difference: Think Twice ScienceOctober 13, 2025
In the spirit of "all models are wrong, but some are useful", I'm willing to take a closer look at…
Mark Miller on Good Vs Bad Science (Models) & How You Can Tell The Difference: Think Twice ScienceOctober 13, 2025
This post my move you up on the Hague's list. If you were a betting man would you bet the…
Brian (bulaoren) on Class 68: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The WRONG WayOctober 9, 2025
47 > 46
Lou on Class 68: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The WRONG WayOctober 9, 2025
68 > 67
Johnno on The Lancet’s New Push To Ban MeatOctober 9, 2025
A short extract from "Remarks to the Commonwealth Club" by Michael Crichton, San Francisco, September 15, 2003. "Today, one of…

William M. Briggs

Good Vs Bad Science (Models) & How You Can Tell The Difference: Think Twice Science

Class 68: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The WRONG Way

The Lancet’s New Push To Ban Meat

‘Termination Shock’: Newest Entry In Science Doom Naming Contest

Changing Clocks In Fall Will Stroke You Out, Fatty: Research

Class 67: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The Right Way

Big Things Are Happening With Celebrities, The Pope & “Climate Change”!

The Main Barrier To Reproduction Is Ideas

How You Helped Academics Justify Sex With Children

Class 66: The Difference Between Uncertainty and Decision

Autism & Tylenol

The Charlie Kirk Killing Theories: The (Non)-Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories 2

In Which I Shockingly Agree With Sabine That Most Science Is Of Little Or No Value

Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like This

Lacent’s Vaccination Model Says What Its Told To Say

Chinese Scientists Pull Off Hilarious “Climate Change” Troll?

On The Myths Of Scientism

Use The Tools The Left Created Against Them

The Various Solutions To Black Crime Analyzed

The False Expectation Of Permanence

Astonishing Climate Change Predictions!

Good Vs Bad Science (Models) & How You Can Tell The Difference: Think Twice Science

Class 68: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The WRONG Way

True Value Of A Parameter

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification