William M. Briggs

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

John Pate on The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As SimulationDecember 8, 2025
…another way of putting it, more succinctly: consciousness does not have the halting problem.
John Pate on The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As SimulationDecember 8, 2025
The most straightforward indicator that computers don't have minds is that computers don't exist in the eternal now. They have…
gareth on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 8, 2025
Well, having made it all the way through, my takeaways were: 1. The answer to the question, "what is the…
NLR on The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As SimulationDecember 8, 2025
It can't be simulations all the way down because a simulation needs an underlying reality to simulate. But also, in…
McChuck on The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As SimulationDecember 8, 2025
There is only one reality. Our perceptions of it may differ. Reality is real. The map is not the territory.…

William M. Briggs

I Finally Read James Lindsay’s Manifesto (Yes, He Has A Manifesto)

The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As Simulation

Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad Dice

Academic Proposes Mushrooms To Avoid Compulsory Moral Bioenhancement

The Michigan Gun Violence Prevention Task Force Is Wrong: “Guns” are not the leading cause of death in kids

The Perfect Conspiracy Theory

Old Lodge Skins’ Prayer Of Thanksgiving

The Apples In A Sack Paradox: Solve It Or You Get No Pie Tomorrow

Antichrist, by Saint Robert Bellarmine

Donald vs Ishmael vs Esau — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong Way

Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says Researcher

On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”

Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In Sports

Why Study Probability?

The Dysgenics Of IVF

In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s Argument

Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their Pillows

Class 71: Never Trust ‘Research Shows’ Headlines: We Bring Cause To Data

Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For Victims

Little Nate’s Plan To Save The World

I Finally Read James Lindsay’s Manifesto (Yes, He Has A Manifesto)

The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As Simulation

True Value Of A Parameter

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification