William M. Briggs

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Statistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…

Culture

Rioting Is An Ecstatic, Spiritual Experience: Or, Structural Sin Made Me Do It

"Rioting"---which is to say, looting, rampaging, vandalizing, engaging in wanton mayhem and violence, and generally acting very badly---"can be, literally, an ecstatic spiritual experience." So says the is-he Right Reverend…

Culture Fun

A Depressing [Real Sad] Churchill Quotation—Contest

As I this morning scanned Facebook, I ran across the image below. Read it through and pause for a moment before continuing. Notice anything strange? I was so intrigued by…

Cary D Cotterman on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
No news source is perfect. Fox openly owns their conservative point of view. NPR lies about being unbiased. Even with…
Tars Tarkas on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
"(I have in the queue a story on confirmation bias of academic Experts that confirms my bias that academic Experts…
Stan on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
Around 2013, I obtained all death certificate data from the state of California for the years 2000-2012. I posted on…
Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026
Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…
Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026
Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.

William M. Briggs

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

Why The Drake Equation Fails

Canada Invents New Euphemism For Doctor Killings

Merry Christmas!

Complete List Of All Moral & Ethical Questions Answered By Science

Why British & EU Rulers Are Juicing War With Russia

Climate Models

Is Powerball A “Fair Game”?

No Class: But Here’s Some Homework

On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble Reviewed

How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is Environment

Class 74: Contra Effect Sizes

Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You Racist

I Finally Read James Lindsay’s Manifesto (Yes, He Has A Manifesto)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

Rioting Is An Ecstatic, Spiritual Experience: Or, Structural Sin Made Me Do It

A Depressing [Real Sad] Churchill Quotation—Contest

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification