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Latest Articles
Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series
March 5, 2026
The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind
March 4, 2026
Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes
March 3, 2026
Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails
March 2, 2026
Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity
February 26, 2026
Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky
February 24, 2026
The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell
February 23, 2026
Class 79: Time Series Example
February 19, 2026
The Importance Of Not Making Decisions
February 18, 2026
Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously
February 17, 2026
AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic
February 16, 2026
Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series
February 12, 2026
Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance
February 11, 2026
Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions
February 10, 2026
Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI
February 9, 2026
Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well
February 4, 2026
Impossible LSAT Statistics Question
February 3, 2026
How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)
February 2, 2026
Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series
January 29, 2026
Who Still Listens To AM Radio?
January 28, 2026
Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins
January 27, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

Posted by By Briggs March 5, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Posted by By Briggs March 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Probability Of Nonsense In Science: Complexity & Verification

This is a work in progress, and today is a busy day. This is just for fun and for you to play with. The more complex the field of study,…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Sleeping Beauty Probability Problem

Update This has been moved up from its original 29 Feb 2012 date on 23 March 2012 to allow additional comments. Update This has been moved up from its original…
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Posted inPhilosophy

The Implications Of Moral Insignificance

In her piece "In Praise of Insignificance" in Scientific American, Jennifer Ouellette says, If one embraces an atheist worldview, it necessarily requires embracing, even celebrating, one's insignificance. It's a tall…
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Posted inCulture

Another Academic Says Climate Skeptics Criminals Against Humanity And Other Name Calling

In a talk at some "sustainability" something-or-other seminar---one this is sure: we're not going to soon run out of climate conclaves---academic Donald Brown told his audience (25 min. mark) that…
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Posted inPhilosophy

All Forecasts, Predictions, & Prophecies Are Contingent

Yesterday I made the point that Jim Hansen's latest threat of doom was a conditional one. I also said that there was nothing wrong with this. And there isn't. Nothing…
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Posted inStatistics

Boy Sues Government To Stop Global Warming. James Hansen Comes Out Of Hiding

I had thought the furor was over, that those who held ultramontane views about climatologists like James "Lock me up!" Hansen (see below the fold) had given up and gone…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Many Lie About Their Support Of Gay Marriage: Study

Thanks to New York Times's (yes) Russ Douthat who alerted us to the paper "Findings from a Decade of Polling on Ballot Measures Regarding the Legal Status of Same­ Sex…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

What The North Carolina Gay Marriage Vote Means To You If You Were Against It

North Carolina voted 61 to 39 to amend its constitution to read that marriage is solely a union between a man and a woman. This was, as far as democratic…
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  1. Jennifer on Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time SeriesMarch 7, 2026

    Ran across this and thought you could be interested: A Combat Scenario-Based Model for Quantifying Ethical Decision?Making in Military AI…

  2. William Wallace on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 6, 2026

    I believe that the anger which creeps into conversations about whether or not AI can become sentiment has nothing to…

  3. NLR on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 5, 2026

    I agree with the paper test; like the Chinese room argument, it is a way to illustrate that a mechanical…

  4. Briggs on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 5, 2026

    Eric, Darn similar, and (I hope) simplified.

  5. Eric Brown on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 4, 2026

    Isn’t this Searle’s Chinese Room argument? Not that I disagree with either of you…

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