William M. Briggs

My Failure To Purchase Something In The Market Subjects Me To Regulation

The title words were spoken to Solicitor General Verrilli by Justice Scalia in yesterday's oral arguments. Scalia was making the obvious point that because he might not buy a thing…

Book review Philosophy

The Universe Created From Nothing Says Lawrence Krauss

This fragment of conversation was reported to me by a reliable witness. It occurred between a gentlemen we will call "Daffy" and Lawrence M. Krauss upon the occasion of the…

Culture

Supreme Court To Check The Doctrine Of Unintended Consequences?

This country, like all other countries, has at times lost its mind. But this country, again like all others, since it is constituted differently than the others, goes insane in…

Culture

Why You Don’t Want Free Health Care: Supreme Court Hears Arguments On Obamacare

Our reading today is from the Constitution, first Act, eighth Section, third Clause: [The Congress shall have Power] To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist

In his shockingly neglected, A Treatise on Probability John Maynard Keynes put his finger on the difficulty people have with probability, particularly Bayes's Theorem: No other formula in the alchemy…

Culture Philosophy

Experts Say People Aren’t Smart Enough

Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen said recently, "The first lesson you learn as a pollster is that people are stupid." Jensen represents a common attitude among media denizens that ordinary…

Fun Statistics

Global Warming Feedback Confirmed!

Just some gentle teasing today. Every climate scientist knows that it's the feedback that counts, that the few squirts of carbon dioxide contributed to the atmosphere are powerless in isolation.…

Fun

This Page Intentionally Left Blank

I was, as regular readers know, in the U.S. Air Force. I was a crypto specialist. Top Secret stuff, code words, all that. Part of the job required reading and…

John Pate on Contest Winner Announced!April 17, 2026
The Austrian Painter is too milquetoast for me. I'm holding out for Vlad the Impaler.
John Pate on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 17, 2026
What is this rambling word salad. Grok could do better. Anyway, ZionDon is just doing his bit for the Great…
Alain Petit on Antichrist, by Saint Robert Bellarmine, ReviewedApril 16, 2026
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw&pp=0gcJCdMKAYcqIYzv
Klara Castagna on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 16, 2026
Ianto, I luv ya man, I bought and read your book ‘The Barbarian Bible’ - everyone should buy it and…
MikeW on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 16, 2026
There are many ways to reconcile alleged contradictions in the Bible, including the staff issue (which is not a particularly…

William M. Briggs

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI