William M. Briggs

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…

Fun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

Statistics

Last Night’s Republican Debate

Off in service today, so only a brief word. Debate results: Romney had an easy base hit to center field, Gingrich doubled but with no men on base, Santorum hit…

Philosophy

Santorum And The ‘S’ Word

President Obama has told us, and we can scarcely disbelieve him, that he is a Christian. At a recent prayer breakfast, Mr Obama said: [The prayer breakfast is] a chance…

Culture Philosophy

Why There’s No Point To Arguing About Abortion

I lifted that title, word for word, from (atheist, self-admitted man-of-the-left, City College emeritus Professor of Sociology) Steven Goldberg's article of the same name from his must-read Fads and Fallacies…

Culture Philosophy

American Atheist Association Modifies Lawsuit Against WTC 9/11 Museum

Those of you living in or around New York City might remember that the American Atheists Association was displeased that two iron girders had formed themselves serendipitously into the shape…

Statistics

Heartlandgate Versus Climategate

There are some key differences between Climategate 1.0 and 2.0, where emails from scientists and their hangers on were leaked, and Heartlandgate (am I the first to use this appallingly…

Tracy Platt on The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde BombshellFebruary 26, 2026
What I miss even more than the ticket is a day skiing at Brighton for $1.10. Carumba! O.K, i dont…
hudbwu on The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde BombshellFebruary 25, 2026
P.S. And don't for a moment think we've escaped from the crutches of oblivion that ate all those books! A…
hudbwu on The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde BombshellFebruary 25, 2026
Here's a video that talks about all the books you will never, ever read. Watch and weep. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fcb2oLSb7Cs
Johnno on Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of BlueskyFebruary 24, 2026
Not only must we Follow THE SCIENCE (tm), but we must LIKE and hit the Notification Bell to be updated…
Johnno on The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde BombshellFebruary 24, 2026
NLR - My favorite pet peeve are restaurants where there are no printed menus, just QR codes to the menu…

William M. Briggs

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series

Who Still Listens To AM Radio?

Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins

What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!