William M. Briggs

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…

Culture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…

Fun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

Statistics

Last Night’s Republican Debate

Off in service today, so only a brief word. Debate results: Romney had an easy base hit to center field, Gingrich doubled but with no men on base, Santorum hit…

Philosophy

Santorum And The ‘S’ Word

President Obama has told us, and we can scarcely disbelieve him, that he is a Christian. At a recent prayer breakfast, Mr Obama said: [The prayer breakfast is] a chance…

Culture Philosophy

Why There’s No Point To Arguing About Abortion

I lifted that title, word for word, from (atheist, self-admitted man-of-the-left, City College emeritus Professor of Sociology) Steven Goldberg's article of the same name from his must-read Fads and Fallacies…

Culture Philosophy

American Atheist Association Modifies Lawsuit Against WTC 9/11 Museum

Those of you living in or around New York City might remember that the American Atheists Association was displeased that two iron girders had formed themselves serendipitously into the shape…

John M on Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!June 11, 2026
The picture on the video link shows how boring the game is. There are so many people yawning and a…
_Jim on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerJune 11, 2026
re: "How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power" Having skimmed the above post, I realize my…
_Jim on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 11, 2026
re: "The only question is capacity to recognize guilt. If the perpetrator was allowed to vote in national elections, the…
_Jim on The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of AnswersJune 10, 2026
One gains a better understanding of the underpinnings of the grist (the extensions to the 'maths') behind QM (Quantum Mechanics)…
_Jim on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 10, 2026
I echo Jean Lesperance's response ... overbooked to too many blogs these days!

William M. Briggs

Class 91: Try Not To Use the ROC Curve & AUC

Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!

The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of Answers

Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?

No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke Coders

How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?

Class 90: Simple (Optimal) Decisions

Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living Longer

Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You Wednesday

Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples