# Search results for ‘probability’

## The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was always, until […]

## How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty

It’s easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I’ll show you how. I’ll give you the procedure first, then work through an example […]

Repeat after me: all models only say what they are told to say. Here it is, right from the hole of Theresa Tam (you recall it was that Canadian official’s bright idea […]

## Young Anon Seeks Advice On Whether To Become A Mathematician

Got this terrific email with interesting questions from Anon. The obvious perspicacity of its young author caused my heart to soar like a hawk, and to have renewed hope of Renewal. Which, […]

## Random Means Unknown Cause — And Nothing More

I’ve used this gimmick many times, so regular readers, please, shhh. I’m thinking of a number between 1 and 4. What is it? To you the number is random, because you don’t […]

## Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]

## The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare

This article, which originally appeared 20 May 2010, was inspired by reading Fredwin On Evolution, as wisely suggested by reader Bob Ludwick. At the bottom of Fred’s piece, there appears a rough […]

## What Does It Mean To Assess Risk Wrong? Coronadoom Example

There is, as de Finetti said, no such thing as probability. So there is no such thing as risk, either, since risk relies upon probability. If there is no such thing as […]