Search Results for “probability” – Page 4

Probability Is Not Frequentist, Nor Math, Nor Real, Nor Subjective

I once had a guy walk out on me at a scientific conference, full of my peers. He and I were disagreeing about the nature of probability. The exact words…

Philosophy Statistics

How “The Science” Is Created By Not Understanding Belief & Decision Are Not Uncertainty & Probability

Stick with me on this not-so-easy subject, because I'm going to reveal a trick used to make you "Follow the Science!" Belief is an act. Uncertainty is a state. Decision…

Statistics

Probability Doesn’t Exist: Nothing Has A Probability

I hope you'll forgive this minor repetition, my friends. But since the world has not yet converted to the truth, shouted by de Finetti and handful of others, that probability…

Philosophy Statistics

The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises

What is the chance that "Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election"? Impossible to say, says Richard von Mises, because the event is singular and must be embedded in an…

Statistics

The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2

My dad and I built a coin flipping machine. Then made this video (you might have to click the link): LINK FIXED. Link, because the embedding is not working. https://youtu.be/8XX0iRAN--8…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Statistics

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article "The Gambler Who Beat Roulette", and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose…

Philosophy

On The Logical Probability Of The Truth Of Mathematical Theorems

I was reading through some of James Franklin's papers on logical probability in an effort to not embarrass myself when I make my speech at the Broken Science Initiative event…

_Jim on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 14, 2026
And, just like that, he (apparently) self-exterminates. Found unresponsive and declared deceased where they found him today, Friday the 14th…
patrivk healy on Ugly Women Rulers Condemn LookismAugust 14, 2026
C-Marie. Look around you. Virtually all the ugly woman who have corrupted the western world in the last 50 years…
Cary Cotterman on Sweet Wee Ps Say Sugar Makes You Lose Your MindAugust 13, 2026
Every day there's some paper or article claiming that something is good for you, followed the next day by some…
spetzer86 on Sweet Wee Ps Say Sugar Makes You Lose Your MindAugust 13, 2026
Always fun watching the lectures.
JRob on Sweet Wee Ps Say Sugar Makes You Lose Your MindAugust 13, 2026
The epidemiologist fallacies are always enjoyable. It seems that there is a rash of scientists now saying that previous scientists…