William M. Briggs

M. Night Shyamalan, Mel Gibson, and John Wayne

Part II of the Two-Envelope problem was not too friendly, so here's something that is. Via HotAir, I came across the site Marginal Revolution, in which was featured a graph…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II

Read Part I first. We are in the peek first game here. The distribution of N When X is odd, and all X are discrete, we know we should always…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…

Culture Fun

Four Chords Is All You Need: The Limited Nature of Pop Music

Coming tomorrow: the infamous two-envelope problem, solved! More mathematical constructivism. But today, as it's Sunday, something light and airy...and non taxing. A "comedy rock" group which bills itself as the…

Statistics

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…

Statistics

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…

Statistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

All statistics were gathered from this DOD site. 2010 numbers were current as of 5 June this year; they were not part of the plots below. In 1983, the year…

Culture Philosophy

‘The Most Dangerous Philosopher in the West’

Extremely busy day, today. I have time for only the merest sketch of a post. The title is not mine, but a label given to Slavoj Zizek, the rock-star communist…

Hagfish Bagpipe on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
The earth is a spinning ball orbiting the sun in a limitless vacuum. Maybe. But maybe not. After seeing how…
hudbwu on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 15, 2025
> you have posited that nothing has become a cause, and it is impossible the absence of anything can become…
Phil R on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
My earlier post was longish and probably wasn't that clear. I think two of the problems are a lack of…
Polybius on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
Now that I have thought more about this I think one of our biggest problems in all fields from climate…
C. P. Benischek on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025
Evolution. As Stephen Jay Gould once sort of said, the lack of a single example in the fossil record of…

William M. Briggs

Jung’s Synchronicity & Coincidence

Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?

Class 57: The Second Best Model

Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea

What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s Study

The Unseen Bias In All Science

The Sad End Of Radio

Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!

Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

Jung’s Synchronicity & Coincidence

Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?

M. Night Shyamalan, Mel Gibson, and John Wayne

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Four Chords Is All You Need: The Limited Nature of Pop Music

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

‘The Most Dangerous Philosopher in the West’

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification