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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples
May 14, 2026
The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!
May 13, 2026
The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?
May 12, 2026
Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty
May 11, 2026
How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power
May 6, 2026
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

Posted by By Briggs May 14, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

Posted by By Briggs May 13, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inCulture Statistics

Welcome-to-Saturday Links

My heart soared like a hawk this week after several readers sent in fascinating stories. Here are a few of them. Reader Sara C sent in a wonderful example of…
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Posted inStatistics

R Lecture 4: Help & Plotting

This is the fourth in a series of lectures on R. 10 minutes is a shockingly short period of time! Today, we learn the R way to create comments: start…
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Posted inStatistics

R Lecture 3: Our First Program!

This is the third in a series of lectures on R. (DAV, I kept the intro for one last time.) Open the myRcode.R file we saved in our myR folder.…
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Posted inCulture

Two-and-a-Half Millennia Don’t Change Much

Herodotus begins his history by telling us that some Phoenician traders came to Argos, Greece and, on a whim, abducted the king's daughter Io and took her to Egypt. Later,…
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Posted inStatistics

Create Tax Refunds That Must Be Donated To Political Parties?

In the State of the Union address, President Obama thought it would be pleasant to slam the Supreme Court, shaming them for their recent Citizens United v. FEC decision. Our…
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Posted inStatistics

R Lecture 2: Prepping a Folder

Main page for R Lectures. This is the second in a series of lectures on R. R is command-line software. We need to type in commands. These commands should be…
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Posted inCulture

State of the Union Snippets: Live Blog (update continuously)

Started by intimating: It's bad now, but when it was bad before, it got good. "Answer history's call." "These struggles are why I ran for President." Thought: It's tough to…
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Posted inBook review

Have You Seen My Country Lately? — by Jerry Doyle

Have You Seen My Country Lately? America's Wake-Up Call by Jerry Doyle Recommendation: Read There's no point in accusing me, because I admit it. I picked up the book because…
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  1. John Pate on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 14, 2026

    You haven't given any information the beast sizes of the women involved, this being an important factor (as demonstrated by…

  2. JRob on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 14, 2026

    Wow, Wow, Wow! Someone else used the exaggeration method! Years ago I tried to figure out the Monte Hall problem…

  3. McChuck on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 13, 2026

    There is a simpler, less math-intensive solution that gives the same answer. Knowing that it doesn't take two men to…

  4. R W Pearson on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026

    This is easy, go in the door he came out. Worse case only one young scold to give you a…

  5. Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026

    I asked an AI, and it had the same answer as me but with silly Bayes equations. Then out of…

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