The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It isn’t sticking, […]
Here’s the headline: “AI can predict when someone will die with unsettling accuracy: This isn’t the first time experts have harnessed AI’s predictive power for healthcare.” Unsettling accuracy? Is accuracy unsettling? Has […]
Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is happening. The […]
Look at the picture, which is real data, but disguised to obscure its source. It is a physical measurement taken monthly by a recognized authority. The measurements are thought to have little […]
This was originally written for a normie audience. See updates below. Polls Predict Biden On the evening of October 29th, The Economist updated their poll-based election forecast model. It gave a 96% […]
These examples are from the BAMS article “Continental US Hurricane Landfall Frequency And Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks” by PhiliP J. Klotzbach, Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke JR., and Michael Bell. […]
We are finally at the most crucial part of the modeling process: proving if the damned thing works. Not “works” in the sense that we get good unobservable parameter estimates, but works […]
OHNOWE’REALLGOINGTODIE—AGAIN! Look at this plot, the number of daily COVID tests in the US, according to the COVID-19 tracking project. So far, since the start of the insanity, there have been 35,512,916 […]
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