William M. Briggs

Asinine comparison of holocaust deniers and honest scientists

Some guy named Joel Connelly at the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has written another one of those "We must do something now" global warming articles. What makes his piece distinct is that…

Philosophy

Mr. Word’s definition of the day: to change

"To alter; to make different; to cause to pass from one state to another; as, to change the position, character, or appearance of a thing; to change the countenance." --…

Statistics

How much does winning Iowa and New Hampshire help?

On the earlier poll thread, a reader asked "What's your opinion about the statistical summary of past results of Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries?" pointing out data from Neatorama.com.…

Fun

Mr. Word’s definition of the day: to gush

"To make a sentimental or untimely exhibition of affection; to display enthusiasm in a silly, demonstrative manner." -- Webster, 1913. For example, this snippet from today's New York Times editorial.…

Statistics

73.2% of Likely Voters Believe Poll Results

Pollster: Who will you vote for? Civilian: Oh, I don't know; that guy, the tall one. Pollster: I'll put you down for Obama. The elections in Iowa are over and…

Oil prices through time: a well-done graph

Source: Wall Street Journal This image, shrunk 50% from it's original size, is a very well-done statistical graph. It shows, in the pale green line, the inflation-adjusted price of a…

Frank Furedi on the global warming apocalypse

Frank Fuerdi, of Spiked Online, has a delightful article on the daily barrage of panic we hear, in which he says, "In the past year, the threat of doom ?…

Book review

Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you: Gerd Gigerenzer

Gerd Gigerenzer, Simon and Schuster, New York, 310 pp., ISBN 0-7432-0556-1, $25.00 Should healthy women get regular mammograms to screen for breast cancer? The surprising answer, according to this wonderful…

Cary D Cotterman on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
I just read an article based on "studies" that attempted to panic me about the potential deadliness of down-filled pillows…
Brian (bulaoren) on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
Threat avoidance seems pretty instinctual. Threat awareness, on the other hand, depends upon the scope of information before us. Sadly,…
Tars Tarkas on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
"What are these airy indefinite words? Propaganda, that’s what." Propaganda is the default setting for the English language press. Most…
Tony Cooke on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
The description of the possible transfer of the Hanta virus reminded me of the woman who sang "I danced with…
The Errors of Mr. Coffin on the PP signature and Apostolic Blessings – Roma Locuta Est on Munus, Ministerium & Pope Emeritus Benedict — Guest Post by Fr John RickertMay 16, 2026
[…] However, for the record I will note that myself and others (e.g., Ryan Grant, and Fr. John Rickert, HERE…

William M. Briggs

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War