William M. Briggs

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper "Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety" by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph…

Culture

Why The Inexorable Increase In The Expertocracy: Examples

Our goal, no easy one, is to figure the trajectory of the Expertocracy. Their goal we know. Complete total full control of every aspect of all life under the guidance,…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Culture

What Are Your Best Theories For Carlson, Bongino, Lemon Firings?

My guess is that the oligarchs pushed out Don Lemon at CNN, and Tucker Carlson and Dan Bongino at Fox, in an effort to cool the flames the oligarchs lit.…

Culture

Virtue Signaling Proves Why Science Is Broken

Few years back some folks invited me to give a talk at Fermi Lab. Subject was how mistaken views of probability were holding particle physics back. (Which I still think…

Culture

Resetting Global Agriculture: The Destructive Road to Dystopia — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

Introduction A title that seems to carry conspiratorial overtones (some might conclude). Well, as my esteemed readers know by now, the so-called “Dutch nitrogen crisis” got me thinking; philosophically, scientifically,…

Statistics

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

A model---which I do not distinguish between a theory---can be useful to one man and useless to the next. "But Briggs, people don't treat theories the same as models." Right:…

Culture

The Woke’s Nice Book Burnings & The Absence Of Violence

I was reading about the woke's latest modern form of book burning; i.e. expurgating but not eliminating texts. And it struck me. You know what's strange? What's really puzzling? The…

Briggs on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 21, 2025
Uncle Mike, By a strange coincidence, you hit upon the very example I used in the class after Thanksgiving. Pr("loaded"…
Uncle Mike on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 21, 2025
What if you rolled a six-sided die 60 times and scored a 10 for each side (1-10, 2-10, 3-10, 4-10,…
Ronald Conneely on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 20, 2025
Great analysis as usual but be careful, you are bordering on that dreded (R----t) area. Would hate to lose your…
Williis Eschenbach on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025
Thanks, Matt, that's what I figured, just wanted to verify it. w.
Briggs on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025
Willis, Sure, you can change the model to remove the probability leakage. Careful modelers would. The vast majority would not,…

William M. Briggs

Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong Way

Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says Researcher

On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”

Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In Sports

Why Study Probability?

The Dysgenics Of IVF

In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s Argument

Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their Pillows

Class 71: Never Trust ‘Research Shows’ Headlines: We Bring Cause To Data

Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For Victims

Little Nate’s Plan To Save The World

Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education Causes Mass Squealing

Stay The Course: Have Some Class

Last Call For Alcohol-Cancer Papers

UFO Hits United Flight. All Survive. This Time!

Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970s

Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right Way

The Triumph Of The Feminine

At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?

The Superpower You Didn’t Know You Had

Class 69: Why Parameters Don’t Exist

Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong Way

Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says Researcher

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Why The Inexorable Increase In The Expertocracy: Examples

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

What Are Your Best Theories For Carlson, Bongino, Lemon Firings?

Virtue Signaling Proves Why Science Is Broken

Resetting Global Agriculture: The Destructive Road to Dystopia — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

The Woke’s Nice Book Burnings & The Absence Of Violence

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification