Stats I Helped With In Sidney Powell’s Michigan Kraken

Stats I Helped With In Sidney Powell’s Michigan Kraken

Our Michigan report is in the system! It’s been put on line here. Part of it is repetition, and can be viewed in this original post: Stats I Did For the Sidney Powell Suits: 150 Thousand Missing Votes.

Part of it is brand new and presents striking evidence. Stick around until the end, which is the most visually impressive part.

Part One

Data from counties in Michigan where absentee votes by candidate were available were gathered. The counties were: (1) Eaton, (2) Grand Traverse, (3) Ingham, (4) Leelanau, (5) Macomb, (6) Monroe, (7) Oakland, and (8) Wayne. The data was dug up by Tom Davis, who did all the hard work of gathering it; he authored his own take on it, too. Apparently, these were the only sources he could find.

In Eaton and Oakland votes could be either straight party (e.g. choose all Democrats for all contests) or variable ballots (e.g. choose candidates individually). These were treated separately.

The data sources are:

Eaton (XML):
Grand Traverse (PDF):
Ingham (PDF):
Leelanau (PDF):
Macomb (HTML):
Monroe (PDF):
Oakland (XML):
Wayne (PDF):!electionsum_11032020.pdf

The percent of the total vote for each candidate (not the overall total, but the candidate total) that was absentee was calculated across each precinct or district within each county. The data within a county was sorted by the absentee percentages for Biden, low to high, for ease in display only.

Next, we plot the percent absentee votes for both Biden (D:blue) and Trump (R:red). This is in shown next. The precinct numbers are here arbitrary, and reflect the sorting of the data.

*Do not get hung on the blue line being smooth! It is merely an artifact of sorting the precincts by Democrat proportions. It shows how much the Rs tracks the Ds. The red line would be smooth if instead we sorted by Rs.

Almost never does the percent of absentee ballots cast for Trump exceed the percent cast for Biden. There are only rare exceptions, such as in very small precincts where we’d expect totals to be more variable.

If absentee voting behavior was the same for those voting for Trump and Biden, the chance that absentee ballots for Biden would almost always be larger would, given the large number of precincts here, be vanishingly small.

Thus, either the absentee voting behavior of those voting for Biden was remarkably consistently different, or there is another explanation, such as manipulation of totals.

More proof of this is had by examining the ratios of absentee ballot totals in each precinct. This is pictured next.

Again, the precinct numbers are arbitrary and reflect the same sorting as before. The ratios are amazingly similar across precincts.

Only 36 precincts out of the 2,146 examined had 0% absentee ballots. These are obviously not shown in the figure (because of divide-by-zero possibilities).

As mentioned, the ratio of Biden to Trump absentee votes is astonishingly consistent. The mean ratio inside each county is printed in the figure, along with the number of precincts.

If voting behavior was similar for both candidates, we’d expect this ratio to be 1, with some variability across precincts, with numbers both above and below 1. Instead, the ratios are almost always greater than 1, and with a tight mean about 1.5 to 1.6 or so. This indicates the official tallies of absentee ballots for Biden were about 50-60% higher almost everywhere, with very little variation, except in smaller counties were the ratio was slightly higher.

Naturally, such behavior could be genuine, but the possibility of programmatic changes in the tallies cannot be dismissed, either. The data is consistent with both hypotheses.

Part Two

Data from 2016 was next compared to that from 2020. Fewer counties were available.

The next picture compares the Democrat versus Republican absentee percentages for 2020 and 2016, with the precincts again sorted by Democrat absentee percentage. The precinct numbers are arbitrary, and the sorting helps aid a visual comparison. The Republican choppiness is only because of the sorting by Democrat totals.

Update Typos fixed in headers! They were all in the right order and numbers right. Yet another set of typos inserted by my enemies.

And the next looks at the ratio of Democrat to Republican absentee percentages, also for 2020 and 2016.

It is clear that in 2016 Republican and Democrat absentee ballot behavior was identical, or nearly so across all precincts. That is, it varied by precinct, but within precincts it was much the same or either party. The percent plots was almost the same for any precinct in 2016, and it rose for both parties in 2020; however, it jumped much higher, and at a consistent rate in 2020, only for Democrats.

This is proved in the ratio plot. The D to R absentee rate across precincts averaged about 1 in 2016. Behavior in precincts differed, just as you’d expect, but overall there was no consistent difference.

In 2020, however, there is a marked and consistent difference, with Democrat ballots being marked as absentee at rates about 50% higher than Republicans. This is very strange, and most unexpected and not explained readily by simple changes in voting behavior.

Yes, both Democrats and Republicans were likely panicked and afraid of the coroandooom, and so more voted absentee. But were Democrats exactly 1.5 times as panicked and afraid everywhere? It beggars imagination.

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  1. This is very convincing evidence.
    Too bad the Democrat judges don’t care.

  2. Sheri

    Do you mean “absentee” or “mail-in” ballots? Absentee means the Democrat went in personally and requested the ballot. Seems unlikely if Coronadoom was part of the explanation.

    If Republicans “helped” the elderly, senile, and uneducated vote the same way the Democrats do, this would not be a problem. It’s the Republican belief that voting is a one-person process that causes the problem.

  3. steve black

    Since the president spent a great deal of time before the election telling his supporters that postal voting was dodgy, it is no surprise at all that the behaviour of republican and Democrat voters were different.

    Perhaps the consistency of the change provides some evidence, but that is hard to judge from just one set of data. How about comparing the equivalent charts and analysis from states that were not swing states and where there is no expectation of manipulation? Assuming that consistency is a problem is not a very convincing argument unless you have comparable data from other places showing that consistency is not the expected result.

  4. vsm

    The labels for Oakland (straight and variable) for both the figures in part two seem to be mixed up. Could you please look into this? Thanks.

  5. DAV

    Would be nice to be able to enlarge the plots to full page.

  6. Fredo

    Well done Briggs! Seems pretty clear this should never be accepted by Trump or
    anyone else.

  7. Bryan H

    Do we have any control examples (ie. examples where we would not have expected manipulation to have taken place)?

  8. Jerry

    Excellent work as always, Briggs.

    I wonder though, what type or volume of evidence it will take to spur real action to fix it? The average American that voted for Biden truly doesn’t know any better – they fully believe in the narrative that the MSM has been pumping out non-stop 24/7/365/4 years+. They don’t listen to anything else. They have no interest in listening to anything that is not “of the faith.”

    Have you ever noticed that everything the Democrats publicly support, they do their own version of the opposite? They decry religion in the public square, and have created a new religion at the same time. “Theocracy” is an obscenity to them, yet they strive to create their own.

    We may somehow, some way win the Trump election battle, but the war has only begun. I see no other outcome.

  9. Dean Ericson

    [The radio crackles to life in Colonel Stat’s HQ…]

    “Colonel Stat, calling Colonel Stat — this is Sargent Briggs reporting in from sector” —

    […static, sounds of explosions, rifle fire, screams…]

    “What’s that Briggs? — you’re breaking up.”

    “Colonel, we located nest of vote rat zombies, have them pinned down with stats, graphs, and cluster numbers, we need — [“AHOOOOOOGAHHH!!!Rat-tat-tat-ratttta!!!–BURRRRRRT!-BURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRT!!!”]”

    “What the hell was that, Briggs?”

    “Sir, blue-haired whale breached our lines, almost crushed us with Pi, but Corporal Burt fractioned her by /10,000 — these vote rat zombies are bad crazy, Colonel — request aerial bombardment with Enumerator 666!”

    “Roger that Briggs, warming up Enumerator now, over your sector in x2 + 4, over”

    “Thanks Colonel Stat!’ [Rat-a-tat-tat – BOOM!!!–BURRRRRRRRRRRRRT!!!]

  10. V

    In the last set of plots, are the last four plots titles correct (all for Oakland)?

  11. Shecky R

    Matt, you and Sidney Powell (and maybe Bigfoot) absolutely deserve each other!…. may you live happily ever after… in La La Land.

  12. Francis

    I totally believe election was rigged/stolen, but have a sense that this is not a good “thread to pull”. I worked election day 15 hours from opening to completion in my small Michigan city (outside Ann Arbor) and saw both the finished in-person voting and absentee/mail-in vote totals.

    I can also vouch for the integrity of the process as absolutely no partisan nonsense was allowed in/around the building (housed two precincts); multiple witnesses across party lines handled/watched every phase of the voting/tabulation process, and both Republican/Democrat poll watchers/challengers were always in close proximity (I spend hours with electronic pollbook, and each R/D were typically right over my shoulder).

    There was MASSIVE correlation over the partisan divide: 2/3 of the city voted mail-in, and the results were around 3:1 for Biden. Of those that voted in-person, the results were much closer, with slight majority going to Biden. This mirrors the blanketing of lawns with Biden signs downtown, and with displays of Trump support more in the lesser, not-so-cute parts of town (and among those – like me – who had just flag on house, or nothing).

    Those that wanted Biden tend to take the Doom as an article of faith, and thought it there civic duty to cast their vote remotely. Those that are Doom cynical/suspicious, tended to want to cast their Trump vote in person. Also, those suspicious of the mail-in effort (that D’s had been pushing since HR1 introduced in Spring), thought that any election hinkiness was best deterred by voting in-person.

    Neither of these two huge issues were present in 2016. Yes, R’s have come to be more wary of election shenanigans, but this is increasingly because of the growing sense of their presence as a result of the 2016 election; then more in 2018; then more in the 2020 prelude…

    To reiterate: I think the hounds of a stolen/rigged election are barking like mad and ready to go. But, the one that’s looking at the D/R vs mail-in/in-person vs 2020/2016 proportionalities? No, that “dog won’t hunt”.

  13. MikeSinc

    Lol … seriously? OK…. Donald Trump told all his supporters for months ..DONT VOTE BY MAIL!!! ITS RIGGED!!

    Joe Biden on the other hand told all his supporters to vote by mail and told them remain safe.

    All the statistics of Registered voters who requested mail in ballots reflect the same skew. Everyone knew this going into November 3rd that the Dem Mail in ballots outweighed Rep mail in.

    In Florida Joe Biden actually had a huge lead before Nov 3rd because they counted Mail in Ballots early and Donald caught up there!

    This proves nothing!!! It says more Dems voted by mail!!! WHOOP DEE DOO!!! This isn´t the KRAKEN it´s damp squid

  14. JR

    Better double down on my tin foil

  15. Amateur Brain Surgeon

    Dear Briggs. Kudos.

    Because he seems to have known this level of fraud was going to happen this election cycle and because he has had Dempsey boots (Rudy Giuliani wears shoes that remind one of the boot handicapped NFL Kicker Tom Dempsey wore on his right foot) and his team making so many rational public arguments, it is ineluctable that Trump will either persuade the republican legislators to send republican electors from the battle ground states, not democrat ones, or invoke The Insurrection Act.

    There is NO WAY Trump has gone down this road only to concede

  16. BetterLateThanNever

    Agree with MikeSinc; why is this befuddling?

  17. Fredo

    “There is NO WAY Trump has gone down this road only to concede”….ditto
    They’ve been calling him Hitler, he might just as well make it the Insurrection Act.

  18. BB

    Interesting results, but not a knockout blow, since there are alternative hypotheses to explain the data. For example,

    1) Trump discouraged his supporters from using mail in ballots, while Biden encouraged his.
    2) Republicans tend to be less concerned about COVID than democrats (from my anecdotal evidence, most of the COVID skeptics I have encountered tend to be right-leaning, whileit also makes sense, since people on the political right are, almost by definition, less trustful of establishment authorities).

    What I would suggest is that you perform a similar analysis for other states. The alternative explanations mentioned above shouldn’t vary too much from one state to another. If you can find these results only apply to Michigan, or only to those states where there were irregularities in the poll-watching, or those states which used dominion software, then you would have something which is a bit harder to explain away. If, on the other hand, it is duplicated across the country, including in those states where there were no reported irregularities or accusations of foul play, then the case from this analysis would be weaker.

  19. Yancey Ward

    I am unconvinced of the meaningfulness of this analysis since the only comparison standard used is 2016. I think there is zero doubt that Biden voters in this election preferentially used mail-in voting- and when I say preferential, I mean 2 -3 to 1. All your data demonstrates, Briggs, is this partisan difference.

    What is really needed in all these states is signature matching along with a closely monitored hand recount of the ballots- no machine counting, by hand. As I understand it, the absentee ballots returned in Michigan don’t carry partisan registration numbers the way Pennsylvania does, but that is what one would need to do an analysis of the type done here. For example, when you look at Pennsylvania’s numbers, Biden won all the registered Democrats who returned an absentee ballot plus all the independents who returned a ballot- that fact is basically proof that at least 100K of Pennsylvania’s absentee vote for Biden is fake. This is the kind of analysis needed for Michigan, too, but I think it can only be gotten at by examination of the signatures.

  20. Yancey Ward

    Like BB above- one of the reasons I strongly suspect Michigan of containing massive absentee ballot fraud is that the win rate of Biden in the absentee vote is much higher that it is in the neighboring states, especially Ohio. Only Pennsylvania outdoes Michigan in this regard- they even outdo Biden’s absentee win rate in deep blue states. Something is clearly amiss in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but it is going to require a court ordered examination of the absentee ballot signatures- both states basically abrogated the law requiring matching- if the state courts won’t uphold their own clearly written laws in this regard, then it is left up to the legislatures do enforce it, and they can do this without the consent of the governors. This actually should be the point given to the Republican legislatures- that they order a recount and an audit.

  21. V

    Does plotting sorted by precinct size show structure?

  22. vetrani sui sunt circuli

    Well done Mr. Briggs.

    This appears to be as insulting to the intelligence as the trucked in 0400 AM ballots and the Dominion software hack – which would have been a state of the art hack say…1990 at the latest.
    For Dem readers: Fraud, blatant Fraud on all Fronts. Full Frontal Fraudulent Transparency.
    Truly, your Presidency and Residency will be the most transparent ever, we all see right through you.

    It will not be enough, the Dem Judges and GOP controlled opposition are a winning combination.
    This is a rearguard action by Trump to make him less a target, perhaps it will work but probably not.

    Trump failed because he did not act, because he did not uphold the law starting in January 2017 when he should have arrested Comey and Brennan for attempting to Blackmail a President with the Russia dossier. He has shown his limits all year, if his lawyers can’t win he can’t win. He utterly failed to defend the Constitution all year, he took no steps to quell dissent beyond twitter and guarding Federal buildings. In fairness he only promised peace and prosperity, and all was sacrificed for a shameful and false peace …but no preparedness or alliances for what was on his own doorstep. Trump has no stomach for even the chance of blood – a disqualifier in any executive or head of government at any level.

    And his lawyers, no lawyer saves us. If he remains in America they will not save him.

    If anything good comes from all this – perhaps at last ‘Heritage Americans’ see how hollow and false the law is, how it serves only the ends of the enemy.
    These are not our laws.
    Biden is not our President.
    This is not our government.

    It is however our country, and we now have only one recourse to even survive.
    And it’s not voting.

    In 2020 they took away your business, your right of worship, tens of trillions of more money, forced you to wear submission masks – our very own Yellow Star Armbands – and now of course they took the vote.

    There is one option left, and it isn’t submission – that will be death.

  23. Dear Dr.Briggs:

    I’m sorry to say that I do not find this argument convincing because all I think you’ve shown here is that the advance vs day-of patterns are different both between partisans of the two parties and between 2016 and 2020. There are explanations for this that don’t involve fraud so.. Occam etc.

    However.. there may be something you can do to make your case: compare behavior between the two major parties and the minor ones. If the people who voted for the minor players acted in ways that are roughly comparable, in terms of advance vs day-of voting, to the way rep partisans acted but very different from the way biden voters acted, then we can reasonably ask why that might be – and the standard explanation for the differences you show, that biden voters were more influenced by dem vote-early demands and covid fear than reps, would not apply because the minor players reflect the fringes of both major parties.

  24. Janet Schooley

    Raises questions. Your recommended actions seem reasonable enough. The real problem. The twisted part of this whole plot that needs to change is winner-take-all. The majority nullifies the votes of the minority in every state. R in CA? Your vote for president doesn’t count. D in WY or WV? Same deal. Winner-take-all and the associated phrase “will of the people” are destructive to the republic. Disregarding those that got just less than half of the votes in a state is resentment fuel. Swing states are gamed before, during, and after the election. That’s the consequence of majority rule. It’s why we have the electoral college and the weight given in representation despite lower populations to the less populous states — so that majorities can’t steamroll the rest of the population with their ideologies and dumb ideas. Yet, we practice it at the state level. End that and lots of these other issues deflate quickly. Apportion those votes. Give the winner the remainder of a fractional EC vote. No change to the Constitution required and in the best interests of the R’s since states like TX are slowly turning purple and may shift to the blue at some point in the next decade. Make votes count.

    Any fraud needs to be swiftly, fully, and severely corrected. This requires investigating the questions being asked. By the same token, if the allegations are a pumped up wet-dream, those purveying that story also need to be swiftly, fully, and severely corrected. Can’t have it both ways. Cheating and lying about cheating or exaggerating are both destructive to a civil society. Perhaps in equal measure.

    I’ve got no dog in this fight. May the best unfit candidate win. But may they win fairly. Shrugs.

  25. Jeanne Arias

    I read what Sidney Powell presented as evidence to the Georgia courts and the first one was your stats, you said that there were anomalies because you were able to talk to 500+ people and some said there votes weren’t counted. Did you follow up to see if they had been counted? I checked and my vote was counted, I guarantee if it hadn’t been I would not be waiting for a phone call to tell someone. But even that aside, you base your fraud on surveying 500 in a 5,000,000 vote election. and those surveyed were not verified as to even telling the truth. But you concluded that there had to be massive fraud.

    In this article you say that the mail in votes had to be fraudulent because there were so many more %wise for Biden but you are ignoring the fact that your illustrious leader told his followers NOT to vote by mail while the dems told there people it would be less dangerous to their health to vote by mail so why would you conclude that there should be more mail in votes?

  26. Jeanne Arias

    And by the way, even trump appointed judges are throwing this stuff out, with prejudice. Give it up you lost, well you didn’t because I’m sure you were smart enough to get paid up front for your work. You know, as well as I do, stats can be manipulated to almost anything you want to prove.

  27. Johnno

    Jeanne Arias

    You and several others entirely missed the point.

    The point is NOT that more Democrats voted by mail than Republicans.

    The point is that Brigg’s seems to have found that the total increase in every area is roughly almost exactly the same ( 1.5 -1.6% ) increase.

    In other words the increase in mail-in ballots for Biden votes is mathematically consistent across the board.

    This is statistically extremely unlikely. Close to spinning a roulette wheel several times and having the ball land consistently within the same 5 numbers multiple times over and over again.

    This therefore is either HIGHLY remarkable, or indicates statistical evidence that points to direct manipulation and fraud.

    For example, counting done by a similar mathematical algorithm in voting machines.

    This really needs to be checked.

  28. vetrani sui sunt circuli


    We lost the Republic.

    You lost America, and we’re not going anywhere.

    Enjoy holding your “gains.”

  29. Just came here to make sure Briggs is looking into the confusing titles other commenters pointed out.

    1) Oakland Straight
    2) Oakland Straight 2020
    3) Oakland Straight 2016
    4) Oakland Variable 2020

    Seems like it should be:

    1) Oakland Straight 2016
    2) Oakland Straight 2020
    3) Oakland Variable 2016
    4) Oakland Variable 2020

    But then I need to be reassured that the graphs also correctly match the titles.

  30. Uncle Mike

    There is a lot more going on re vote counting fraud than stats and lawsuits. To pull off this coup, and it is a coup, required involvement of the CIA, FBI, George Soros, the Clintons, Obama, computer hackers, foreign governments, international cabals, and Deep State actors. The truth will come out; it always does. There is a boatload of excrement about to hit the fan.

    PS — note who Trump fired this month. The Kracken is much more than you might realize at present.

  31. BrutusVa

    “Almost never does the percent of absentee ballots cast for Trump exceed the percent cast for Biden. There are only rare exceptions, such as in very small precincts where we’d expect totals to be more variable.”

    Virginia reports absentee votes only at the locality level (county/city). Biden’s % of votes cast as absentee exceeds Trump in 132 of 133 localities. The lone exception had no absentee ballots.

  32. Vetrani Sui Sunt Circuli

    The Fraud is not only statistically unlikely and suspiciously consistent, it was so comprehensive in human, paper, software, and coordination terms to be best called a Massive Brute Force Hack Fraud of the election.
    1. All the swing states stopped counting at the same time and kicked out the observers. They then found a massive number of unobserved Biden votes; completely reversing the results from before they “stopped counting” but kept counting until Trump’s wins became a massive tide of “mail in” votes. * To tell everyone you stopped counting then to continue to count in secret invalidated those elections in of itself. *
    2. The long history of Dominion and Smartmatic from Venezuela 2004 to now is full of Democratic candidates and Representatives holding hearings, suits like Stacey Abrams (D) in GA 2018 (on that suit rests the current Wood vs Raffensperger in GA suit) and has been publicly dissected by forensic techs since 2018. There are at least 3 now public affidavits laying out what servers and what admin passwords by name are Internet accessible to Dominion servers in Iran, China, Belgrade. Those people can remotely access the machines and alter votes using Windows 10 file explorer and Recycle bin (delete). Moreover the affidavits lay out exactly how per the Dominion user manual has a feature called “Ranked Choice Voting” wherein the Operator can alter the votes. By design Dominion has no audit trail – violating Federal Laws to hold records for 22 months after the elections; these machines were illegal all along.
    And you can add or subtract votes with a USB card – 50,000 votes are missing in MI on 47 missing USB sticks.
    3. Finally the statistically unlikely and suspiciously consistent sudden “mail in” ballots that Mr. Briggs addresses the turnout in many counties and even states equaled or exceeded 100%. In Benton TWP, MI 350% of voters voted.
    An enormous turnout of mail in votes indeed, no wonder Democrats prefer “vote by mail.”

    Now all of the above is publicly available on the web, has the suits and affidavits. I won’t bother pasting them, it will all be brazenly denied, called “baseless” and “claim disputed”.

    As to “you lost, just admit it” here is my answer; We did not lose the election, we just lost voting.”

    Enjoy holding your gains.

  33. Dee

    “The point is that Brigg’s seems to have found that the total increase in every area is roughly almost exactly the same ( 1.5 -1.6% ) increase.”

    If this is indeed the point of the article I missed it – not trying to offend, but…stats folks need English majors more than ever.

  34. Amateur Brain Surgeon

    Dear Dee. Yes, for without English Majors our children would have been deprived of the great work of Rigoberta Menchu. So what if it was feminist fiction?

    Our excellent English Majors insisted it truly did describe the experience of an indigenous person. For heaven’s sake, she got a Nobel…

    As to the indigenous Native Americans (ALL men born in America are native) well, their history is verboten and we must deny they have any civil or human rights, especially because some white men wrote the Preamble to The Constitution that described the motivation for creating America- for the white man and his posterity: secure the Blessings of liberty, to ourselves and our Posterity…

    White men wrote that and their prosperity was the white christians native americans they wives gave birth to.

  35. Reg Mordling

    All this data shows is that many more Democrats voted by mail this year than they did in 2016, as was expected. Trump urged his voters to vote in person people like you could turn this into another conspiracy. Nothing else. Nationwide more Dems voted by mail (absentee) than Republicans. If Ohio only counted mail-in/absentee voting, then Biden would have won Ohio by 400,000 votes.

  36. DAV

    All this data shows is that many more Democrats voted by mail this year than they did in 2016, as was expected.

    Doesn’t explain the astonishing ratio of Biden to Trump of 1.5-1.6 in all precincts even in Republican counties while in 2016 the ratios were roughly 1. Imagine a population that uniformly distributed.

  37. “But were Democrats exactly 1.5 times as panicked and afraid everywhere? It beggars imagination.”

    Interesting, but does it really beggar the imagination? This new easy mail in voting is a new circumstance. How well understood is it? Is there anything similar to compare it to?

  38. lux

    This is a very, very curious argument. Why? Since it feels that Dr. Briggs shows with statistics something we would have, or let’s say, some of us would have expected anyway.

    I am no mathematician, but I always loved mathematics, and I used statistics often in my own field. I especially loved them when they surprised you in their simple beauty, when they told you something you didn’t expect. Then you can start to concentrate on finding out why?

    Now let’s look at this expertise for Sidney Powell. And let’s look a bit into the difference between mail-in ballots in 2016 and 2020. Assuming Michigan had the same rules/laws/regulations for mail-in votes in both years. We didn’t expect this?

    There is no difference between 2016 and 2020?

    Seems Trump referred to mail-in votes very, very rarely in 2016 and the connotations were positive.

    Speech: Donald Trump in Delaware, OH – October 20, 2016″…Early voting is underway. So make sure you mail in your ballot. And you have to do it quickly and in person. But on November 8th, get there, we’re going to do something that has never been done before in this country. Believe me….”
    View Full Transcript, Oct 20 ’16

    In 2020 starting during his Coronavirus press briefings in April 2020, he kept hammering into the heads of his supporters that mail-in voting both unreliable and a source for fraud. I am sure he also mentioned it was especially untrustworthy especially in states dominated by Democrats.

    You may want to take a look at the Trump database. Wouldn’t you expect this to have an impact on his voters?

    Well it did and you just showed it.

    Helpful that his supporters by now connotate mail-in votes with fraud?

  39. If there’s something fishy about Michigan’s mail in votes, could they be compared and contrasted with mail in votes from other states?

  40. DAV

    Mollie Hemingway has criticized the “fact checking” of the Georgia election video by Lead Stories. In a not-so-surprising turn, Facebook is using Lead Stories to censor her criticism of Lead Stories.

    In a related Federalist post, the video is shown in more detail.

    In case you haven’t heard Sidney Powell’s Georgia suit was dismissed for lack of standing, wrong venue, and being too late. Of course, if it had gone through the proper venue it would have been dragged out until it was too late — Catch-22.

  41. V


    Nice piece of software. Very flexible.

  42. Jenny willkerson

    Would it be possible to show similar plots for a couple of non-battleground states?

  43. Jenny,

    TX responded to similar responses itself. You should read it. The summary is Politifact is also fake news.

  44. Jenny willkerson

    It isn’t I accept Politifact’s account, but they raise technical issues with the analysis. This has to be refuted. Otherwise it appears those in support of irregularities on the order to call into question the results of the election are just sore losers.

  45. I just told you where to look. Texas responded to most of the major claims themselves already. Look it up. Or, if it “needs” to be refuted for peace of mind, do so. Nobody is stopping you.

  46. Jenny willkerson


    A bit more specific please.

  47. Jenny willkerson

    Thanks Malcolm. Politifact and others make a fundamental claim:

    “Groups can split drastically by geography. In Wisconsin, for example, Milwaukee County and Ozaukee County are next to each other, but one went 69% for Biden and the other 55% for Trump because demographics in the two counties are very different.”

    It continues:

    “So a key part of understanding why early and late returns differ is looking at where those votes came from and how they were cast. This claim ignores that question altogether to treat each vote as if it were a coin flip.”

    Given the massive get out the vote in Milwaukee County, does the increase in absentee voting in Milwaukee County account for a significant % of Biden vote surge?

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