Statistics

Those Exposed To Disease To Be Thrown In Jail For 90 Days, Given Forced Treatment Says Proposed NY Law: Coronavirus Update XLVII

I’ve cleaned up the figures to get to the essential matter faster and easier.

NEW LAW

Here are portions of the text of New York Assembly Bill A416, which “Relates to the removal of cases, contacts and carriers of communicable diseases who are potentially dangerous to the public health”. The full text is at the link. The original was in all-caps, but I retyped it for easier reading. All emphasis mine.

2. Upon determining by clear and convincing evidence that the health of others is or may be endangered by a case, contact or carrier, or suspected case, contact or carrier of a contagious disease that, in the opinion of the governor, after consultation with the commissioner, may pose an imminent and significant threat to the public health resulting in severe morbidity or high mortality, the governor or his or her delegee, including, but not limited to the commissioner or the heads of local health departments, may order the removal and/or detention of such a person or of a group of such persons by issuing a single order, identifying such persons either by name or by a reasonably specific description of the individuals or group being detained. Such person or group of persons shall be detained in a medical facility or other appropriate facility or premises designated by the governor or his or her delegee and complying with subdivision give of this section.

If the government suspects you may be sick, you may be arrested and locked away in solitary confinement and incommunicado for (it goes on to say) “three business days” (later expanded to “five”). After “such person or member of such group shall, upon request, be afforded an opportunity to be heard. If a person or group detained pursuant to subdivision two of this section needs to be detained beyond three business days, they shall be provided with an additional commissioner’s order pursuant to subdivisions two and eight of this section.”

The good news is that “In no event shall any person be detained for more than sixty days without a court order authorizing such detention.”

Which can quickly turn into 90 days: “The governor or his or her delegee shall seek further court review of such detention within ninety days following the initial court order authorizing detention and thereafter within ninety days of each subsequent court review.”

So it’s 90 days between each review.

It’s not all bad. The government will provide you, free of charge, “A notice advising the person or group being detained that they have a right to request a release from detention, and including instructions on how such a request shall be made.” You will be comforted by this piece of paper in your cell.

If you misbehave in the medical camp, or attempt to leave, you will face further punishments, the law goes on to say.

Not only that, but you will be made to undergo treatment: “To require an individual who has been exposed to or infected by a contagious disease to complete an appropriate, prescribed course of treatment, preventive medication or vaccination, including directly observed therapy to treat the disease and follow infection control provisions”. Your body, their choice.

Is it any good explaining to these experts that “exposed to” does not imply “infected”? That’s a rhetorical question, son.

Those who have followed this from the beginning recall it was originally a “conspiracy theory” to suggest we would have to carry vaccination papers and passports wherever we go. But they are now a thing, well supported by government.

Now the ruler who proposed this said he meant it to apply to ebola. Which makes it okay.

Handy on-line form to rat out your neighbor.

What are we doing to ourselves in our gibbering fear?

THE UK

The UK has lost its mind. Last week we saw how lockdowns cause more spread of bugs than liberty. People are not allowed outside the homes except for limited reasons—like swelling together in limited spaces to spread the bug more efficiently.

What caused the deaths to drop in summer? What caused them to re-peak in winter, even amid a harsh lockdown?

It’s a complete mystery. Yes, sir, a mystery so deep even experts with their computer models can’t figure out.

BOOK UPDATE

The book is back in stock! For now, anyway. The Price of Panic.

As I write this, the price is $12.99 for the hardback. You can’t afford not to buy.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot, from late 2009 until now. The late drop off is late counting: it takes up to eight weeks to get all data, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the attributed COVID numbers.

The black line is deaths of any kind. The red COVID. The blue line is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients). The blue is estimated starting mid year because CDC stopped separate reporting on flu. The suspicion is some flu and pneumonia deaths are being attributed to COVID.

DEATHS ALWAYS PEAK IN MID JANUARY. DO NOT BE ALARMED. PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON!

The January peaks are caused when we enter our voluntary lockdowns in winter, spreading bugs. This is also the “solution” governments hit upon to stop the spread of bugs. Lockdowns kill.

Besides the increasing deaths due to population increase, notice that about every other year deaths are higher. Like this winter.

Here is another way to look at all deaths, the week-of-the-year all-cause deaths.

The number of deaths for each year are also given. My simple “excess” deaths model, a year-on-year extrapolation, predicted 2.92 million deaths for 2020 absent COVID. So far, there have been 3.15 registered deaths. This gives 232 thousand “excess” deaths for 2020.

Again, so far. Once the late counting comes in, this number will grow to about 300 thousand. IMPORTANT: these are not all COVID deaths! They include deaths from the “solution” to COVID, too. Plus increased suicides, cancers, heart attacks, and everything else due to lockdowns.

Daily tests:

This is the number of daily tests. Each positive test in the media is counted as a new “case”. These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.

We’ll know the panic has ended when this numbers subsides. It hasn’t yet.

Flu is still missing. CDC found one pediatric death for flu this year. One. Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker, showing flu has gone missing everywhere:

If we focus only on COVID deaths, we lose all perspective. We can see above that deaths peak every January, because of our self-enforced wintertime lockdowns, when we all hunker down inside and spread bugs among ourselves.

Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of; “involving” is CDC’s word).

Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:

POPULATION FATALITY RATES
                 Age     COVID OtherCause
1       Under 1 year 0.0000085    0.00420
2          1–4 years 0.0000012    0.00019
3         5–14 years 0.0000012    0.00012
4        15–24 years 0.0000110    0.00071
5        25–34 years 0.0000450    0.00130
6        35–44 years 0.0001300    0.00200
7        45–54 years 0.0003500    0.00370
8        55–64 years 0.0008500    0.00800
9        65–74 years 0.0020000    0.01600
10       75–84 years 0.0052000    0.03900
11 85 years and over 0.0150000    0.12000

No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID. If you’re under 44, the COVID risk is vanishingly low. Our level of fear is in not in line with the actual risk.

About masks in depth, see this article and this one. I am also working on a comprehensive article about masks. Hint: they do not work.

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Categories: Statistics

27 replies »

  1. A couple points-

    1) At present the NY state system is opt-in. Do not opt-in. That means no air travel to NY.

    2) There are less than 5000 sworn troopers in a state of 19.5 million. Do the math.

  2. Tell them to be VITAL to Nancy Pelosi’s wishes and there is no chance of being jailed. They can VOTE IN PERSON with a positive covid test. Go kiss up to the crazy woman now if you live in New York.

    LEAVE NEW YORK. Problem solved. If you stay, you deserve jail.

    Now, burn the places to ground like in the Civil War, or learn to love this. SHUT UP OR ACT. I no longer care about whiney SHEEP. You asked for this. You DESERVE this. Whiney, stupid Americans deserved hell and they will get it. Worse, they want the spineless fool who did not fire Fauci back in office. Who let America live in hell and DID NOTHING. Why???? Rewarding the stupid and wrong? Elect the Turnip in the Basement and live in hell more quickly. Why prolong the stupid? You’re getting it either way. (Read the empty-headed Tom Cotton for proof of stupid.)

    Hell is visited on the stupid and lazy. Evil wins. So shut up stupid and lazy. Football and beer were more important than America and damn sure more important than your kids. You pleaded and begged for this and NOW YOU HAVE IT. Shut up.

  3. So basically, face-diaper dissenters shall be herded into internment camps. Got it.

    Where will be the “Resistance!”? Where the repudiation? Where the judges who are supposed to be the bastions of Americans’ liberties?

  4. It seems like the NY law is a response to the Supreme Court ass whooping they took, when they were hoping to prevent Jews from gathering for worship but got curb stomped by the Robed Gang. So instead, they will write a new law and Cuomo can detain them whenever he wants. Ain’t government grand?

    Because nothing says I stand against fascism like rounding up Jews and detaining them against their will!

  5. Cuomo is merely a tool for testing the national socialist policies his CCP masters demand in return for their massive payoffs to the bank accounts held by his cutouts.

  6. So, as it turns out, excess deaths are going to be pretty close to the increase of all-cause deaths over 2019 ? I thought it was more nuanced than that.

  7. The link Briggs included shows CDC all cause death counts at 2.932M. Unsure where he got the 3.15M number. 2.932M is higher than last year, but it doesn’t seem significant, even with the inevitable increase from late reporting that is bound to happen. But it certainly isn’t 300k higher. If it was, it would be easy to say COVID caused all the increase since the reported number of 307k COVID deaths matches the increase YOY. Saying increases in death from other causes is virtually impossible to prove because everything is attributed to COVID.

    I wanted to make sure I understood the numbers since there have been other articles saying that total All Cause Deaths will be flat this year and it looks pretty close to true.

  8. Joel,

    That link only starts in February. You have to link to the Week 38 files to get January deaths and add them in.

  9. Didn’t we have a similar spike in 2018 over 2017 due to a harsh flu season? I think fluctuations of a few hundred thousand year over year are common.

  10. I’m still confused though. Aren’t excess deaths estimated in a different manner than simply noting increase over average minus projected population growth ? Also, I could be wrong, but I thought that Briggs had earlier predicted 230k, then amended to 250k … now 300k ?

  11. This is just sick stuff. The growing Covid totalitarianism around the world is, nearly a year on, unabating and getting worse. They will not be happy until all the world submits to Covid paranoia and tyranny, and all small businesses and lives and liberties are destroyed, and those who refuse to meekly don their face diapers and submit to insanity, Stasi-like “contact tracing,” forced “treatments” and vaccinations, etc., simply opt to leave this world altogether as a better solution than living at all under the present global political and social regime.

    And in the meanitime as Rome burns, we have a Congress whose first day of business was more interested in pursuing an insane levels of language policing to placate the LGBT lobby (doing away with “ombudsman” etc) coupled with a fool Congressmen – an alleged ordained minister no less – giving a “benediction” which ended with “Amen and Awomen,” because apparently this pig-ignorant moron thinks “Amen” (and ancient Hebrew word) is actually some gendered sexist gendered English word designed to give offense to women. What a sick and disgusting country this has become.

  12. Reminder that on labor day it was shouted from the rooftops that 420,000 would die in the US by labor day.

    As I predicted several times we came in far below that number and no one in the media has made any comment about the prediction being wrong.

    And, as expected, there are articles talking about some new huge death total from the IHME, which has been wrong every single time. Most common prediction being touted seems to be 500k dead before April, though a couple are claiming 700k dead by April by reading off the “Mandates Easing” projection, which has never even been close to reality.

    So I’ll make the easy prediction again: in April there will be less than the IHME predicts in deaths (currently about 560k) and when April rolls around with a lower death count no one will report on this but instead everyone will report on the newest projected death count.

  13. “As I predicted several times we came in far below that number and no one in the media has made any comment about the prediction being wrong.”

    The only prediction that’s never wrong is that facts don’t/won’t matter when it comes to anything related to Covid. All a political and media con job now, and really has been since nearly day 1.

  14. It doesn’t matter if 335k is less than 700k. Indeed, it doesn’t matter if we make a compelling argument that Covid deaths are half the reported total. We will still get, “So, you’re okay with 170k dead ? 2018 was a bad flu season and only 61k died then !!!”

  15. The tell that our dear rulers have completely lost the thread is that they have apparently forgotten that Covid-19 originated in animals and can be transmitted to humans by animals. Locking down humans without also locking down all animals is simply a wasted effort.

  16. “The tell that our dear rulers have completely lost the thread is that they have apparently forgotten that Covid-19 originated in animals …”

    Except it almost certainly originated in a lab, and they know that, but hiding that fact and pretending it just happened by accident from a “wet market” is part of the con to placate China (especially on part of WHO, which is basically a wholly-owned subsidiary of a partnership between the CCP and the Gates Foundation).

  17. Awildgoose: More astroturfed “youth leaders” conveniently sponsored by the WEF Great Reset gang. Is there anything real in this world anymore, or just all BS & PR manipulated by shady scumbags?

  18. Dennis-

    I’m at a point where I view everything as a psyop.

    Or, if you know pro wrestling, think of everything as a worked shoot.

  19. The state bill actually has a sentence that refers to a section of the New York City Health code.
    So, I looked it up and what I found is that this bill is basically just a copy of a different section (11.23) of the NYC health code with Governor replacing the NYC Health Commissioner in the bills language.

    So, the residents of New York City currently live under this “law”

  20. Governor Walz has a modest proposal for those in the legislature who have accused him of usurping congress’s power through his executive orders: just pass laws that match the text of his executive orders.

    I have no idea why he would do this other than to just rub Minnesotans’ faces into thing further. He clearly doesn’t believe that he has any need to actually get permission from the legislature, based on what he has done so far. His stated rationale is that this is necessary since things are winding down, which makes no sense. He’s framing this as how somehow putting things like mask mandates into law will make it less likely for them to be long term, which just makes me wonder if he’s a moron or if he just thinks that I am.

  21. Tuskegee airman Theodore Lumpkin, Jr. recently died a few days short of his 101st birthday.

    What was the cause of his death?

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