Statistics

Has The Surrender To Reality Begun? — Coronavirus Update LVII

ALAS, NO DOOM

Remember the wild wails of coming doom predicted with Texas returned to liberty? Didn’t happen. Left column: fear-based states. Right column: liberty-based states.

Seems the coronadoom doesn’t care one way or the other about government actions.

TYRANNY’S END?

This is from, if you can believe it, the New York Times, woke bible of the elite.

Florida reopened months before much of the rest of the nation, which only in recent days has begun to emerge from the better part of a year under lockdown. Live music returned this weekend to the bars of New Orleans. Crowds were pouring into restaurants in Atlanta and Kansas City, Mo. Movie theaters in California were poised to open their doors soon…

Realtors cold-knock on doors looking to recruit sellers to the sizzling housing market, in part because New Yorkers and Californians keep moving in. The unemployment rate is 5.1 percent, compared to 9.3 percent in California, 8.7 percent in New York and 6.9 percent in Texas. That debate about opening schools? It came and went months ago. Children have been in classrooms since the fall…

Yet in a country just coming out of the morose grip of coronavirus lockdowns, Florida feels unmistakably hot. (And not just because of global warming.) [Note: I let them have this to show you it’s still woke.]

“You can live like a human being,” Mr. DeSantis said. “You aren’t locked down. People aren’t miserable.” President Biden’s new hope of getting Americans together to celebrate with their families on the Fourth of July? “We’ve been doing that for over a year in Florida,” the governor boasted…

Yet Florida’s death rate is no worse than the national average, and better than that of some other states that imposed more restrictions, despite its large numbers of retirees, young partyers and tourists. Caseloads and hospitalizations across most of the state are down. The tens of thousands of people who died were in some ways the result of an unspoken grand bargain — the price paid for keeping as many people as possible employed, educated and, some Floridians would argue, sane.

The government may finally be feeling the sting of all these stimulus packages, which stimulate their donors more than us. They can’t keep it up forever. Inflation is already inching up. They want control, not chaos, which is what they’d get with runaway inflation. How many 2 trillions can they keep spending to solve the crisis they created?

The more progressive a place, state or country, is, the more fearful, and it is fear driving this. Fear in the populace that they will surely die if all do not subscribe to the Cult of the Mask and the government does not protect them. Fear in the rulers that they will be blamed for nature.

No fear can last forever. The evidence that places without fear do as fine or better as the places still cowering either has to be recognized or suppressed. The media and elite is fine with suppression and lying, but this thing is even beginning to inconvenience them. And the effort at suppression is becoming more and more difficult as more places release their fear.

Plus, summer is coming. As I show you week after week, there is no better cure than summer.

On the other hand, effeminacy is the rule in some lands, like Norway.

Yes, that’s a 1 at the end. The word I want to use about the p-people, I can’t, not on a family blog. But they’re that. And worse.

BMJ LETTER

Surprised we missed this one; rather, surprised the British Medical Journal ran it. Excerpt.

In March, at a time when the behaviour and lethality of this infection was largely unknown, and in the justifiable panic following camera footage of people falling dead in the streets of Wuhan, the WHO’s pandemic response plan, updated as recently as October 2019 was torn up. Fifty years of scientific and epidemiological research was dismissed, and instead Britain and Ireland, along with most of the developed world adopted the model espoused by the Chinese Communist Party.

The entire healthy population was locked up, elderly people were taken from hospital beds without expectation of further medical care, and legislation was passed, without parliamentary debate, removing fundamental human and constitutional rights-to movement, to association, to earn a living, to an education, to engage in public worship, and to access the range of medical services to which people were hitherto entitled.

Governments were advised in this course of action by scientists and medics whose identity, qualifications and aptitude for this work was largely hidden from public scrutiny. Even now, the conflicts of interest of these people on whose advice our futures depend are not publicly available.

And so on.

Along these same lines, this excellent article: Doctors Abandoning Medical Ethics for Covid-19 Money.

VACCINE DEATHS

This is only cursory. There is much information circulating, but it’s difficult to know what to trust.

First Hank Aaron, who we suspect, now Marvin Hagler, who died “in an ICU fighting the effects of the vaccine”.

Ireland, among other countries, suspended AstraZeneca vaccine “after reports of serious blood clotting after inoculations in Norway.” Italy is also giving AstraZeneca the stinkeye. And Germany.

When the media runs headlines like “Here is how death is good for you”, it is right to suspect something is up. But we must also keep in mind all vaccines cause side effects. Many cause death. Not just the coronadoom ones.

This letter is making the rounds, and there’s surely something to it: “Halt All Covid-19 Mass Vaccination Immediately (Open Letter to the WHO) — Vaccine Research Expert“. Gist: vaccinating people too soon with a rapidly evolving virus will exacerbate infections because of “immune escape”, the variants not targeted by the vaccines.

It can happen. But perhaps our experience with other vaccines, such as for flu, tempers this fear. Plus, the doomsday variants of coronadoom have been circulating in Florida and other places, and the forecasts of apocalypse have not verified.

On efficacy, papers like this can be helpful: Age-dependent immune response to the Biontech/Pfizer BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination.

While the majority of participants in both groups produced specific IgG antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, titers were significantly lower in elderly participants. Although the increment of antibody levels after the second immunization was higher in elderly participants, the absolute mean titer of this group remained lower than the <60 group. After the second vaccination, 31.3 % of the elderly had no detectable neutralizing antibodies in contrast to the younger group, in which only 2.2% had no detectable neutralizing antibodies.

And don’t forget the J&J vaccine, not studied there, is materially different than the others, which are all RNA based. J&J is of the old-fashioned kind of vaccine. So many different vaccines make this hard to figure out what’s happening.

BOOK

The Price of Panic.

From our publisher:

We are going to set up a 50% off sale on Price of Panic on Regnery.com starting on March 15. Would you please tell the authors so they can promote it on their social media?

The link to the PoP page is: Price of Panic

Customers should use code: PANIC50 at checkout to get 50% off.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

Daily tests:

Tests are dropping, thank God.

Every positive test the media falsely calls a “case”, when it is only an infection with varying degrees of seriousness—and most are not serious. The media really does not know how to tell the truth.

Positivity rate of the tests.

Notice carefully that this is not dropping because tests are dropping. If anything, and all things equal, fewer tests mean larger positivities, because it’s more likely only the sickest are being tested. And, depending on the kind of test, those who are vaccinated will show as positive (antibody test, say).

CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot, from late 2009 until now. The late drop off is late counting: it takes up to eight weeks to get all data. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the attributed COVID numbers.

The black line is deaths of any kind. The red is COVID. The blue line is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients). The blue is estimated starting mid year 2020 because CDC stopped separate reporting on flu. The suspicion is some flu and pneumonia deaths are being attributed to COVID.

There is nothing but good news in that plot.

Here is the CDC deaths “involving” COVID.

This is backed up in the daily data, too (source).

The cure which is present every year, as the all-cause perspective plot shows, is upon us.

Here is another way to look at all deaths, the week-of-the-year all-cause deaths. This one tells the real story!

Look at those deaths plunge! This chart should amaze you.

You can see the black dots on the green line, which indicate the late counts. But before that, even with some late counts coming in, this is low. Real low. It’s as if the bug came, killed off those most susceptible early on, people who would have died more spread out over the year, and now “too few” people are dying.

As we predicted early on.

MOST IMPORTANT: the 2020 excess deaths are not all COVID deaths! They include deaths from the “solution” to COVID, too. Plus increased suicides, septicemia and other iatrogenic kills, cancers, heart attacks, and everything else due to lockdowns. Like car crashes, as we saw above. Plus, there were over 80,000 drug overdose deaths last year. This point cannot be over-emphasized.

Flu is still missing. Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker, which still shows flu has gone missing everywhere:

Flu is still gone the whole world over.

Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of; “involving” is CDC’s word).

POPULATION FATALITY RATES
                 Age     COVID OtherCause
1       Under 1 year 0.0000120    0.00550
2          1–4 years 0.0000018    0.00024
3         5–14 years 0.0000020    0.00015
4        15–24 years 0.0000170    0.00091
5        25–34 years 0.0000710    0.00170
6        35–44 years 0.0002000    0.00260
7        45–54 years 0.0005800    0.00470
8        55–64 years 0.0014000    0.01000
9        65–74 years 0.0035000    0.02100
10       75–84 years 0.0089000    0.05100
11 85 years and over 0.0240000    0.15000

Once again, no matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID. If you’re under 44, the COVID risk is tiny. Our level of fear is in not in line with the actual risk for the majority of the population.

About masks in depth, see this article and this one. I am also working on a comprehensive article about masks. Hint: they do not work. Leave the Cult of the Mask.

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Categories: Statistics

33 replies »

  1. I congratulate you on surpassing your prior achievement as Statistician to the Stars and ascending to a role among America’s Premier Doomonologists (Before Time spelling: demonologist). So you’re probably aware that a new, and perhaps more soulless and vicious Doom (Before Time: demon), has emerged that may be even more powerful than the currently active Dooms (Goebbel Warming, WuHu Flu): viz., Transhumanism and all hir works. Transhumanism even has a cosplay group calling themself Transgender (née: Legion).

    Screwtape is earning his paycheck.

  2. We will soon return to death by diseases that once had vaccinations, courtesy of fear and loathing and very greedy lawyers. I really don’t care. Die of whatever you want, ignore reality, live in hell. Spread doom, get even with the other political party you hated, etc. Rational behavior is dead, insanity rules. It’s what you wanted and begged for and supported for years. Enjoy your victory.

    As for Norway, all of Scandinavia has gone straight to hell with stupid, airheaded women in charge. Again, they want misery and death. Let ’em have it. Why is everyone so intent on success and happiness? Most of the world lived in hell for all of history. Dictators were the rule, death and misery the fare of the day. Stupidity and lack of education was normal though often fatal. We’re just living like our ancestors did and everyone knows this is the right way to live because they were so smart.

  3. Out of how many vaccinations, Chuck? How many people died from the food they ate? How many died in car accidents. What percentage of people die in cars. From food? From medicaion? From untreated cancer? From treated cancer? Or are we just hating on one thing that you hate on and rational thought is out?

  4. Just because B follows A temporally does not mean that A caused B. Side effect lists are B following A. Of the about 1000 cumulative deaths reported following vaccination (what is the cumulative number of those now, by the way), there is a fraction where the vaccine did cause it and a fraction where the relationship is spurious. How many of the 1000 post-vaccination deaths drank water? ;p /sarcastic and rhetorical.

    Determining cause of death isn’t always obvious, just like determining whether a diagnosis is an accurate one isn’t always obvious, either.

  5. Here in Canada’s Capital, the local public health authority’s latest fear-tool is the increase in CV-19 detected in sewage. On March 5, they posted on FB: “The trouble is the COVID levels in poop have been rising sharply. So far that’s been a useful indicator of what will happen to our cases within the coming days.”

    Maybe this “poop” indicator is more useful than the clunky PCR tests? Here we are 10 days later and what do we see? So far, cases are flat while wastewater counts are up. It looks like another busted prediction.

    https://613covid.ca/wastewater/#

  6. “Has The Surrender To Reality Begun?”

    Never. Even though large tracts of Florida and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of Reality and all the odious apparatus of Deplorable rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in New York, we shall fight in the blue cities and ghettos, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the media, we shall defend our Narrative, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight with our bitches, we shall fight on the campus square, we shall fight in the courts and in the streets, we shall fight in the congress; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Oligarchy, or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Globalist Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by our fleets of Homos and Trannies would carry on the struggle, until, in Satan’s good time, the New World Order, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rape, plunder, and destruction of the old.

  7. The restrictions in Norway are mild compared to the restrictions in the “based” V4 countries – Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic went full retard – almost everything closed, no schools, no visits/guests allowed, night curfews, draconian fines, even police brutality for non-maskers..

  8. In March, at a time when the behaviour and lethality of this infection was largely unknown

    Excuse me?

    We had at least two petri dishes in the form of Cruise Ships

    The Diamond Princess, especially with over 3000 onboard although a skewed demographic demonstrated that
    (That was by the end of February)
    1 Not everybody got it
    2 Flulike for many that did get it
    3 Trouble for some people with or without comorbidities and especially those with comorbidity

    Albeit late March …
    The MS Zaandam pretty much confirmed those results with just under 2000, 193 were sick with 4 dead
    (one died from other cause(s), another apparently “unknown”)
    Because there were no tests until three weeks after setting sail, there were only 9 official cases with Covid

    This fact belies the idea that the virus is “active”? for over 21 days.

  9. If the MSM is any guide, the J&J vaccine is like the AstraZeneca one, in that it gives you the spike protein DNA rather than the mRNA for it.

    From what I can tell, *none* of the Western wuflu vaccines are actual vaccines – they all use mRNA or DNA for the protein spike:

    https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

    23 total:
    Pfizer: mRNA
    Moderna: mRNA
    AstraZeneca: DNA
    J&J: DNA

    Sputnik V (Russia): DNA
    EpiVacCorona (Russia): Protein fragments, no DNA/RNA
    Covaxin (India): Inactivated wuflu virus
    CoviVac (Russia): Inactivated wuflu virus

    Don’t much care about the Chinese options (they have a few).

  10. Briggs ==> I had the same reaction to the NY Times piece on Florida . . . either someone let that one sneak past the Editorial Narrative enforcers . . . . . . OR it is possible that the Editorial Narrative on Covid is beginning to change now that it is no longer necessary to beat the Covid Madness drum to drive out Trump.

    I had thought Covid Madness would dissipate like the fog once the inauguration was over — but it has taken a little longer than that…a whole two or three months.

    My Guess: State Covid Mandates (lockdowns, etc) will beginning falling like dominoes and the new administration will attempt to take credit for opening up country and saving us from the Covid Monster.

  11. There will be no surrender to reality, the panic porn will be repurposed. It was useful for Dems and media to drive out Trump, to seize more authorities, to limit citizen liberties, to capture more graft, to increase the centralization (flow of monies through DC)–what’s not to like? The Deep State uniparty never relinquishes power and control.

  12. Outtake from the NYT article:

    “The tens of thousands of people who died were in some ways the result of an unspoken grand bargain — the price paid for keeping as many people as possible employed, educated and, some Floridians would argue, sane.”

    Huh? Grand bargain? What grand bargain? Whatever its policies, Florida’s were surely not “unspoken.”

    Not interfering in the citizen’s right to conduct themselves free of nanny-state restrictions was a grand bargain paid for with the deaths of tens of thousands?? That’s disgusting pornography–a journalistic obscenity.

    Writing from NYC, the NYT is ignoring the carnage of death in New York, much far worse than Florida, despite NY’s draconian policies interfering in everyday life with nanny-state restrictions. What do we call NY’s policies? A grand bargain with the devil?

  13. The Terror Lords are loathe to give up COVID Terror. Every revolution requires a reign of terror to break the will of the masses and make them obey. Globalist Warming Terror caused some mild apprehension, but COVID Terror was a bold and well-executed campaign that was wildly successful in scaring people senseless. It drove out the chief enemy of the revolution and regained for the revolters mastery of their Evil Empire. Terror works. Absent terror, people will naturally slip back into disobedience, and they can’t have that.

    So as COVID terror wanes a new terror will be deployed. Likely a frightful new pathogen, real or imagined, since fear of ghastly infectious disease is a powerful motivator. These states, Florida, South Dakota, et al, attempting to free themselves from the hideous tentacles of the revolution will have to be brought to heel and made to obey, or counter-revolt will be emboldened. Get ready for Red Terror 2.0.

  14. Thanks for keeping us upto date with the testing numbers – and with respect to that I would like to draw your attention to a high quality survey going on in the UK.

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/coronavirus/stay-safe-cambridge-uni/asymptomatic-covid-19-screening-programme

    Around 4,000 students asymptomatic students are screened each week and any positive tests are repeated. Before Christmas, there were quite a few positive tests that were confirmed – but also many false positives. Since Christmas, there have been almost no real cases (i.e. confirmed tests) but there are still positives in the first screening.

    These are high quality tests done by professionals, not just a quick and dirty test. Their cumulative false positive rate is 1 in 400.

    I will leave it there.

  15. “CDC Director Redfield, before he was a top bureaucrat, was found guilty of falsifying data to make it look like his HIV vacksine candidate worked (lol). His accomplice was Deborah Birx.”

    It was also revealed recently that CDC has been falsifying Covid death numbers.

    So, the CDC, lead by a person with a known history of falsifying medical research data, is now engaged in falsifying data on “Covid.” Who could have predicted, eh? And still alongside Birx, who is a Gates-owned agent.

    Only in America would it be possible for such a person to become CDC chief, rather than being sent to jail and/or forever banned from holding any position within the medical field henceforth.

    Really, is there any institution or person in any position of authority in this country that isn’t utterly corrupt to the core? Just sickening.

  16. CDquarles: You’re right about being careful in attributing causation if someone dies subsequent to having received a vaccine, but it’s merely being consistent with the way “Covid deaths” are counted in many places. For example, in many jurisdictions anyone dying of ANY cause within 28 days of a positive Covid test, even if it is clear Covid was neither the actual nor proximate cause of death, is treated as a “Covid death” for official Covid reporting purposes. So…fair’s fair right, when dealing with these new Big Pharma concoctions? Anyone dying within 28 days of getting one of these experimental “vaccines,” should be deemed a “vaccine death” (including babies killed in vaccine-triggered miscarriages). Not that it matters, since laws have been passed to ensure the companies can’t be held liable for faulty products causing death!

    Mark: Nice vaccine tracker link; hadn’t seen that before. Amazing, eh? Thirteen “vaccines” currently in use worldwide within 12-14 months of the appearance of a supposedly “novel” coronavirus, when there had never before been a workable vaccine for any corona-type virus! – and two of them mRNA “vaccines,” a technology which a year ago was considered to be years from being suited even for human trials, and which many considered a dead end that would never be fit for human use!

    Yeah…nothing fishy at all going on…perfectly normal…just “the science” at work at world record speeds to produce a plethora vaccines for supposedly new viruses that 99.98% of people survive anyway!

    And also yesterday I saw the CEO of Pfizer was reported talking on an investor call about what a “great opportunity” this is for his company…and promoting the idea that people will probably “need” a third shot, plus annual Covid boosters, etc..etc..all a big f-ing boondoggle to line the pockets of Big Pharma and their political lickspittles.

    Wake up to reality? Most, unfortunately, especially under this perpetual “Dark Winter” Biden administration, seem a long way from that point.

  17. Around here there is tremendous social pressure to vaccinate. Almost every conversation I have with other people inevitable ends up including a discussion of vaccination appointments. But there is very little, oftentimes no, discussion of the supposed health benefits of the vaccine. It’s just something that’s expected.

    The most ridiculous example of this is an older acquaintance I know. He got COVID-19 and recovered. But since he had a monoclonal antibody treatment he is not on the current vaccine schedule. This upsets him because he cannot get vaccinated at the same time as everyone else (though I suspect it more upsets his wife than him). But the reason that he isn’t high priority for the vaccine is that he already has strong COVID-19 antibodies. There is no benefit to himself or others if he gets vaccinated. But he still has other people give him disapproving comments of “Oh? You haven’t been vaccinated yet?”

  18. Many of us have gotten blow-back for opposing (if only for our humble selves) this Covid-19 “vaccine”, which is not a vaccine at all, but rather, an experimental biological agent that (supposedly) manipulates our genes into telling our cells to create “spike proteins”, like the barbs on the alleged virus, which will, *if all goes well*, elicit an immune response to fend off future, actual viral attacks, at least until said virus mutates, and then there’s always next year, $Ka-ching!

    Apparently, it’s better to let them jab us with these experimental gene-altering agents, which after 20 long years of testing still haven’t received FDA approval, rather than take the chance of actually catching the virus itself, with its 99.98% survival rate, and average age of death “with” Covid at 80 years old and mostly sickly.

    (The average age of death from all causes is 79. We’ve lost a year of life expectancy since Obummercare took effect.)

    Yes, we must stop at nothing, including using human embryonic kidney cells (HEK-) from full-term murdered babies, in order to test, re-test, refine and perfect our Little Jab, to save humanity from this viral scourge, because…..“cases”.

    So how do these pharmaceutical companies get “emergency” approval for drugs and agents that won’t otherwise pass muster, except in their evil dreams? By claiming there are “No Therapeutics”, the golden exception that allows “emergency” bypass of the FDA “vaccine” approval process!

    Now we know why they’ve been running a dedicated, well-funded negative PR campaign against therapeutics like Hydroxy/zinc and other unprofitable drugs, this whole past year!

    Yes, thanks to The Pandemic™, Billionaires are now Trillionaires, and Big Pharma (much of it owned by Communist China) is raking in worldwide taxpayer cash like never before, for all of these “life-saving”, mostly mandatory “vaccines”, not to mention the face diapers and other mandatory medical supplies.

    Doktor Redfield is the CDC’s version of James Clapper. I didn’t realize he was a Designated Government Liar back during the height of the AIDS crisis too, but it figures. In 2019, more than 700,000 people worldwide, most of them young, died from AIDS, so we can see that Doktors Redfield and Fraudci and their fellow travelers, continue to have matters well in hand.

    Thanks for another excellent, thought-provoking article, Dr. Briggs.

  19. Johnson and Johnson admits their vaccine uses murdered baby parts. though they use the term Aborted babies’ cell lines for the description of its development, production and testing.

    Also, any of these vaccines will not be protectors for receivers of the vaccines for nearly 4 weeks after being vaccinated.

    And the second vaccine ought not to be given for three to four weeks after the first one.

    Defintely not getting one. Babies’ lives’ worth is established by God Who created them, and He did not and does not create them for research labs’ use.

    God bless, C-Marie

  20. There’s a lot of news stories in the last couple of weeks which talk about the vanishing flu. They all give the party line: the flu is gone because masks and social distancing are so gosh darn effective. None of them give any evidence for this conclusion beyond the decrease in the flu. None of them explain why the flu has vanished everywhere, even in places with minimal mitigation against COVID-19. None of them explain how the measures can be so dramatically effective even as we are constantly being lectured about our poor adherence to the guidelines. They ask the question of: “Why is there no flu?” and then immediately answer “probably because our health measures are so good” and immediately cease thinking about it further.

    Probably not a surprise to anyone considering this is (literally!) the epidemiologist’s fallacy.

    But what is interesting is the conclusion of the articles: currently they are split about 50/50. Half heavily hint or sometimes outright say that since masks, etc. are so effective we must use them forever, or else we will be guilty of murdering every single person that dies from the flu. The other half predict that the 2021-2022 flu season will be one of the worst flu seasons on record, since no one has gotten “boosted” antibodies from exposure to the flu. I find this interesting because the beginnings of the articles are all nearly identical, as if they are all reading from the same script. But the conclusions are very different. It’s almost as if the powers that be know that they want to exploit the flu in the coming year after people get over COVID-19 (both literally and psychologically), but they haven’t yet decided how they are going to exploit it.

  21. “Fear marks plebeian spirits.” – Vergil, Aeneid, BK 4

    “Surrender to reality” will require governments and people give up the fear they’ve apparently come to love so much. But is it possible in this low and plebeian age?

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