I spell it vexxine for the comedy, but mostly because of our rulers and Experts vigorously censor the vaccine spelling when any hint of criticism is given. I know it can cause confusion, but given the insanity of our times, I’m going to stick with the neologism.
After we get past the hilarity of our rulers creating the problem through unnecessary punishing unhelpful lockdowns and then “solving” the problem by telling folks they didn’t have to pay rent, and past the small delight of seeing mega-real estate corps being stung, we realize that while there might be some reorganization and consolidation of mega RECs, they will survive because they can afford it. They will then, like vultures, consume the corpses of the small and medium landlords.
The rulers’ “solution” made the rich richer. Again.
And this is before considering how our rulers enlarged the subservient class, which through its new behaviors will also serve to enrich the rich even more.
All to “solve” the coronadoom crisis that wasn’t — lo! — solved at all.
And all cheered on by Experts.
God bless all for sending the emails with many helpful tips and links. I am now getting so many that keeping up and answering each one is taking much longer than usual. Apologies if I can’t write everybody back in short order.
VEXXINE & THE DREADED DELTA: UK DATA
Sweet Pete in the comments last week pointed us to a Public Health England official doc called “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England” dated 23 July (pdf).
One juicy bit was the ED visits for coronadoom broken down—at last!—by age and vexxination status. We still can’t compute infection chances, because they don’t provide the N for the relevant populations. But we can look at attributed death rates by age and vex for the Dreaded Delta.
In Table 3, a list of attributed dead by variant. Alpha, as befitting its name, leads the pack with 4265, then the DD with 461. Are first indication the DD panic is overblown (golly). Beta, you won’t be surprised, could only find the strength to slaughter 13. The is backed up in Table 4.
The real meat is in Table 5, “Attendance to emergency care and deaths by vaccination status among all sequenced and genotyped Delta cases in England from 1 February 2021 to 19 July 2021”, which focuses solely on the Dreaded Delta.
The attributed deaths and “cases” are counted for vexxination status (1 shot or 2 and unvexxed) and age (under 50, 50 and above).
Again, we can’t tell infection rates because we don’t know the population Ns, so we can’t read too much into the raw numbers. For instance, just over 199 thousand unvexxed people showed up at the ED with the DD, and only just over 15 thousand “fully” vexxed people did. This is likely in the vexxine’s favor, but again, it depends on the relevant population sizes.
And behavior. Confounding could happen. For instance, the vexxed with minor or trivial symptoms might not have bothered to venture to the ED reasoning, “I’m vexxed and I’ll be fine”, while the opposite is likely true of the unvexxed.
That supposition is backed up in the bodies. Let’s look at the attributed death rates, by vex and by age. The data is further broken down by less than 21 days first dose and greater than 21 dose first death; since the numbers were so similar, I combined these into “1 dose.”
|Age||1 dose||2 doses||No doses|
|< 50||6/48644 = 0.012%||4/15346 = 0.026%||34/119063 = 0.029%|
|≥ 50||59/5446 = 1.1%||220/13427 = 1.6%||131/2337 = 5.6%|
Accepting the numbers as is and their circumstance, and ignoring the potential confounders, it appears that regarding death:
- the vexxine does nothing for people under 50;
- the vexxine does provide some benefit for people over 50;
- that no more than one dose is needed for those over 50;
- possibly more than one dose is worse regardless of age.
A crude predictive model based on this would guess that in the next 20 thousand vexxed patients over 50 about 200 to 400 would die; and in the next 20 thousand unvexxed patients over 50, about 800 to 1,400 would die. But only 100 to 300 with one dose. Well, that’s the crude model.
This is, of course, for the Dreaded Delta alone, and says nothing whatsoever about vexxine risk beyond what we noticed here. The confounding of the type mentioned above would be less for deaths, of course.
OTHER VEXXINES THREAD
Breathless touting of the Novavax, but no details on its nature. https://t.co/XjMu3sA77o
However, one paper on a blinded placebo trial had 10/7569 = 0.1% doom + in the vex group, and 96/7570 = 1.3% in the placebo group.
0 deaths in both –
— William M Briggs (@FamedCelebrity) August 2, 2021
Remember: this thread dies of coronadoom in 7 days.
REASON TO DOUBT
A lovely article, and from the old-fashioned left, interviewing lefty (they said) medicos: “What We Got Wrong (and Right) About COVID-19“. Read the whole thing—it will be just like reading these updates. One juicy quote:
EY: Let’s talk about models. Some in public health have raised concerns that policymakers relied on alarming and supposedly predictive models that were not predictive, not reliable—and that had an enormous effect of distorting policies. Many people, certainly in the media, treated models as facts, not projections—no matter that many models were proven wrong. What needs to be done going forward regarding using models as the basis of policy?
SB: Historically, mathematical models would get integrated into a framework of evidence. So models can be part of that decision-making process. But using them as a primary form of decision-making concerns me greatly. It’s not that they’re all useless. It’s not that they’re perfectly useful. They are useful in their context and interpreted within their limitations. But I think the ones that were media-worthy were indeed the worst ones. There were lots of models being proposed, but the ones that really got covered in The New York Times and The Guardian were ones that were just truly catastrophic. I would say that how we use and integrate models into our decision-making process needs to be one of these elements we assess moving forward.
CULT OF CERTAIN DEATH
Honestly as long as you're vaccinated and not in some sort of special circumstance you should choose to live your life ~however you want under COVID but don't mistake overcaution for virtue or wisdom.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 30, 2021
The replies to this simple plain obvious tweet by one of the left’s darlings explains why we are in such deep kimchi. Do spend some time reading them.
They may be summarized: “BUT I’M STILL SCARED! Therefore, you must be mandated to be scared, too.”
The mind of the cultists is plain: only the vaccine, masks, and lockdowns will save you, and the vaccine does nothing, so mask and lock up. Long COVID, you know. And the Dreaded Delta.
The only thing that will bring these cultists back to Reality is when their rulers and media stop trumpeting Certain Death (packaged as “news”).
What’s most important to the hersterical is not just to do something, but to be seen to be doing something, even if that something is telling the world how frightened they are and making you acknowledge them and their fear.
As you can see, they become very angry when they perceive one of their own losing the Faith of Fear. Nothing will assuage that fear, and they want nothing to assuage it. They enjoy their fear.
One instance from hundreds:
? I'm vaccinated (not J&J), and well afterward I got the Delta variant and easily passed it along to a fully vaccinated friend.
We're far from bulletproof.
— Benjamin Wolfe (he/him) (@BenjaminWolfe) July 30, 2021
Inference: either (1) Don’t bother getting vexxinated, then, or (2) Everybody applauded. And more likely (2) than (1).
Many such cases. All of them saying, in effect, “Get the vexxine! It does nothing! But do something!”
They really don’t want this to end.
What I get from this, is that the vaccines are probably part of Delta’s advantage over other variants. https://t.co/QBGj56XAcZ
— eugyppius (@eugyppius1) July 30, 2021
Gist of this thread is that the vexxine tamps down symptoms of coronadoom infections, but doesn’t affect virus replication and therefore transmissibility. Thus, places with low vex rates would do better with the Dreaded Delta than those with high vex rates.
If this is so, and it’s entirely plausible, then it would be rude to laugh at the hubris of Experts who assured us of their immutable genius and our rulers who told us they knew best.
Assume this theory is true. Then it will be next to impossible for Experts to back down from their theories.
— Elevate Thy Gaze (@elevatethygaze) July 30, 2021
A huge problem is that our health agencies are so heavily focussed on "communication" – code for liberal-paternalist manipulation of the public – that they rarely provide honest information & their strategic thinking is wasted mostly on what they can fool people into doing next. https://t.co/two0f4ck6c pic.twitter.com/isgjNrPUB2
— eugyppius (@eugyppius1) July 30, 2021
Messaging has been it. Our betters always wanted to have a unified message, and to make us all follow it, even as that message changed, morphed, and contradicted itself. Experts must needs audience and submission.
This week’s U.S. data for 12- to 17-year-olds show:
15,086 total adverse events, including 909 rated as serious and 16 reported deaths — one less than what VAERS showed last week. Two of the nine deaths were suicides.
The most recent reported deaths include a 13-year-old boy (VAERS I.D. 1463061) who died after receiving a Moderna vaccine, a 16-year-old boy (VAERS I.D. ??1466009) who died after receiving his second dose of Pfizer and a 16-year-old boy (VAERS I.D. 1475434) who died with an enlarged heart six days after receiving his first Pfizer dose.
Other reports include two 13-year-old boys (VAERS I.D. 1406840 and 1431289) who died two days after receiving a Pfizer vaccine, three 15-year-olds (VAERS I.D. 1187918, 1382906 and 1242573), three 16-year-olds (VAERS I.D. 1420630, 1225942 and 1386841) and three 17-year-olds (VAERS I.D. 1199455, 1388042 and 1420762).
2,223 reports of anaphylaxis among 12- to 17-year-olds with 99% of cases
attributed to Pfizer’s vaccine.
394 reports of myocarditis and pericarditis (heart inflammation) with 390 cases attributed to Pfizer’s vaccine.
72 reports of blood clotting disorders, with all cases attributed to Pfizer.
CULT OF THE MASK
Mask mandates, as have been well proved by all observational evidence, don’t work. But theoretical, i.e. model, evidence says they do. Therefore, conclude Experts, mask mandates work. And are coming back.
Item: “Pressure grows on CDC to release data that led to mask U-turn as cities and states say they WON’T change guidance without seeing the evidence – and Kevin McCarthy claims study was conducted in India using vaccine not used in US”.
I don’t know how they’re getting away with this, but, in an old-fashioned approach to science, the CDC is putting out verifiable predictions of it models. Link.
Here’s one I downloaded on the morning of the 30th of July 2021, using data complete (they said) through the 26th.
A week from then, they say 2913, two weeks 2576, three 3199, four 3657. Let’s wait and see.
This is both stunning and brave, since if they’re wrong, etc. If they do turn out to be wrong, I can’t wait for the explanations from Experts about how they were ackshually right.
Here’s a screenshot (for when Twitter censors delete the original) showing lying is now official policy.
There are many more of these (do your own search, though after its exposure there are now many jokes). They all appear to originate with a Blue Checka calling himself “Sam Ghali, M.D.”.
I just left the ER.
We are officially back to getting crushed by COVID-19.
Delta Variant is running rampant and it’s MUCH more transmissible than the original virus.
99% of our ICU admits did NOT receive a vaccine.
Virtually ALL of them wish they had.
— Sam Ghali, M.D. (@EM_RESUS) July 22, 2021
His follow-up tweet right below this on 22 July says, “Just to give you some better insight into what is actually happening right now, we currently have MORE patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 than we’ve had at ANY other time since the pandemic began.”
People just can’t help but lie (see below for why we know it’s a lie). Even doctors. We saw this, too, in “Officer Dunn” who told Congress about the 6 January rally:
“One woman in a pink MAGA shirt yelled, ‘You hear that, guys, this nigger voted for Joe Biden!’ Then the crowd, perhaps around 20 people, joined in, screaming ‘Boo! Fucking nigger!’
This lie is just as in-your-face as Ghali’s. Since no one can question a black without being called a racist, and no one can question a doctor without someone saying “Are you a doctor?”, whoever is in charge of us knows they can get away with it.
Also, the need to be part of the story is overwhelming. Long-time readers will recall I had an exchange with another doctor back in March of 2020, who said he was “surrounded by death” because of the coronadoom in Seattle. This was at a time when the total attributed deaths for the entire state of Washington was in the single digits. When I called him on it, he deleted the tweet (and I neglected to save a screenshot).
Whoever is behind the bots thought the lie from the doc looked especially scary, and off it went. We’ve seen these bots before, and we’ve asked the question “Who is behind them?” without receiving any answer.
I’ve got so many tips, I can’t do them all in an update. Here are some.
Mandatory vexxines: Durst Organization employees not vaccinated by Labor Day will be fired: report. Vexxine tyranny follows wokeness almost one-to-one.
Expert expertology: ‘The war has changed’: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe. Have to love those Experts!
Fun Pfizer leak thread.
Cult of the Mask: Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review—from 2016! When Experts were far less political.
How vexxines can make things worse (no surprises): Vaccines Are Pushing Pathogens to Evolve.
Website of similar name: price of panic.
Sources: CDC State data (source), CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Causes of death (source). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday.
Daily tests (from here from Johns Hopkins) have spiked. The Dreaded Delta panic is still working. Testing now up to 1.5 million a day.
That leads to this, a surge in “cases”, testdemic:
We know it’s a testdemic and not pandemic because deaths aren’t following:
Since the UK got the Dreaded Delta before we did, and has a similar vexxine strategy, we’ll likely follow behind their curve. Here are their “cases”:
Attributed deaths lag “cases”, as expected. And, also as expected, the “cases” peaked (as we discussed last week) and are now falling.
Be careful falling for the hype about “hospitalizations”. Most are “with” and not “for”.
— Disclose.tv ? (@disclosetv) July 26, 2021
What about states? Remember the apocalypses predicted in Texas and Florida?
Michigan total 212 deaths per 100 thousand; Florida 182, Texas 180. Golly.
All cause weekly deaths:
However you slice it, the pandemic is over. The panicdemic is still with us.
How about the weekly coronadoom deaths?
Tell me exactly precisely why you’re panicked again?
Deaths by age, maybe?
So not age.
Ah. The media and foolish rulers.
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