Statistics

Dreaded Delta Bows To Alpha; Cult of Certain Death; Cult of the Mask; Vexxine Effectiveness; Propaganda Bots; Model Insanity; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXXII

WHY VEXXINE?

I spell it vexxine for the comedy, but mostly because of our rulers and Experts vigorously censor the vaccine spelling when any hint of criticism is given. I know it can cause confusion, but given the insanity of our times, I’m going to stick with the neologism.

RENT FIASCO

After we get past the hilarity of our rulers creating the problem through unnecessary punishing unhelpful lockdowns and then “solving” the problem by telling folks they didn’t have to pay rent, and past the small delight of seeing mega-real estate corps being stung, we realize that while there might be some reorganization and consolidation of mega RECs, they will survive because they can afford it. They will then, like vultures, consume the corpses of the small and medium landlords.

The rulers’ “solution” made the rich richer. Again.

And this is before considering how our rulers enlarged the subservient class, which through its new behaviors will also serve to enrich the rich even more.

All to “solve” the coronadoom crisis that wasn’t — lo! — solved at all.

And all cheered on by Experts.

EMAIL!

God bless all for sending the emails with many helpful tips and links. I am now getting so many that keeping up and answering each one is taking much longer than usual. Apologies if I can’t write everybody back in short order.

VEXXINE & THE DREADED DELTA: UK DATA

Sweet Pete in the comments last week pointed us to a Public Health England official doc called “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England” dated 23 July (pdf).

One juicy bit was the ED visits for coronadoom broken down—at last!—by age and vexxination status. We still can’t compute infection chances, because they don’t provide the N for the relevant populations. But we can look at attributed death rates by age and vex for the Dreaded Delta.

In Table 3, a list of attributed dead by variant. Alpha, as befitting its name, leads the pack with 4265, then the DD with 461. Are first indication the DD panic is overblown (golly). Beta, you won’t be surprised, could only find the strength to slaughter 13. The is backed up in Table 4.

The real meat is in Table 5, “Attendance to emergency care and deaths by vaccination status among all sequenced and genotyped Delta cases in England from 1 February 2021 to 19 July 2021”, which focuses solely on the Dreaded Delta.

The attributed deaths and “cases” are counted for vexxination status (1 shot or 2 and unvexxed) and age (under 50, 50 and above).

Again, we can’t tell infection rates because we don’t know the population Ns, so we can’t read too much into the raw numbers. For instance, just over 199 thousand unvexxed people showed up at the ED with the DD, and only just over 15 thousand “fully” vexxed people did. This is likely in the vexxine’s favor, but again, it depends on the relevant population sizes.

And behavior. Confounding could happen. For instance, the vexxed with minor or trivial symptoms might not have bothered to venture to the ED reasoning, “I’m vexxed and I’ll be fine”, while the opposite is likely true of the unvexxed.

That supposition is backed up in the bodies. Let’s look at the attributed death rates, by vex and by age. The data is further broken down by less than 21 days first dose and greater than 21 dose first death; since the numbers were so similar, I combined these into “1 dose.”

Age 1 dose 2 doses No doses
< 50 6/48644 = 0.012% 4/15346 = 0.026% 34/119063 = 0.029%
≥ 50 59/5446 = 1.1% 220/13427 = 1.6% 131/2337 = 5.6%

Accepting the numbers as is and their circumstance, and ignoring the potential confounders, it appears that regarding death:

  1. the vexxine does nothing for people under 50;
  2. the vexxine does provide some benefit for people over 50;
  3. that no more than one dose is needed for those over 50;
  4. possibly more than one dose is worse regardless of age.

A crude predictive model based on this would guess that in the next 20 thousand vexxed patients over 50 about 200 to 400 would die; and in the next 20 thousand unvexxed patients over 50, about 800 to 1,400 would die. But only 100 to 300 with one dose. Well, that’s the crude model.

This is, of course, for the Dreaded Delta alone, and says nothing whatsoever about vexxine risk beyond what we noticed here. The confounding of the type mentioned above would be less for deaths, of course.

OTHER VEXXINES THREAD

Remember: this thread dies of coronadoom in 7 days.

REASON TO DOUBT

A lovely article, and from the old-fashioned left, interviewing lefty (they said) medicos: “What We Got Wrong (and Right) About COVID-19“. Read the whole thing—it will be just like reading these updates. One juicy quote:

EY: Let’s talk about models. Some in public health have raised concerns that policymakers relied on alarming and supposedly predictive models that were not predictive, not reliable—and that had an enormous effect of distorting policies. Many people, certainly in the media, treated models as facts, not projections—no matter that many models were proven wrong. What needs to be done going forward regarding using models as the basis of policy?

SB: Historically, mathematical models would get integrated into a framework of evidence. So models can be part of that decision-making process. But using them as a primary form of decision-making concerns me greatly. It’s not that they’re all useless. It’s not that they’re perfectly useful. They are useful in their context and interpreted within their limitations. But I think the ones that were media-worthy were indeed the worst ones. There were lots of models being proposed, but the ones that really got covered in The New York Times and The Guardian were ones that were just truly catastrophic. I would say that how we use and integrate models into our decision-making process needs to be one of these elements we assess moving forward.

CULT OF CERTAIN DEATH

The replies to this simple plain obvious tweet by one of the left’s darlings explains why we are in such deep kimchi. Do spend some time reading them.

They may be summarized: “BUT I’M STILL SCARED! Therefore, you must be mandated to be scared, too.”

The mind of the cultists is plain: only the vaccine, masks, and lockdowns will save you, and the vaccine does nothing, so mask and lock up. Long COVID, you know. And the Dreaded Delta.

The only thing that will bring these cultists back to Reality is when their rulers and media stop trumpeting Certain Death (packaged as “news”).

What’s most important to the hersterical is not just to do something, but to be seen to be doing something, even if that something is telling the world how frightened they are and making you acknowledge them and their fear.

As you can see, they become very angry when they perceive one of their own losing the Faith of Fear. Nothing will assuage that fear, and they want nothing to assuage it. They enjoy their fear.

One instance from hundreds:

Inference: either (1) Don’t bother getting vexxinated, then, or (2) Everybody applauded. And more likely (2) than (1).

Many such cases. All of them saying, in effect, “Get the vexxine! It does nothing! But do something!”

They really don’t want this to end.

VEXXINE EFFICACY

Gist of this thread is that the vexxine tamps down symptoms of coronadoom infections, but doesn’t affect virus replication and therefore transmissibility. Thus, places with low vex rates would do better with the Dreaded Delta than those with high vex rates.

If this is so, and it’s entirely plausible, then it would be rude to laugh at the hubris of Experts who assured us of their immutable genius and our rulers who told us they knew best.

Assume this theory is true. Then it will be next to impossible for Experts to back down from their theories.

Followup.

Messaging has been it. Our betters always wanted to have a unified message, and to make us all follow it, even as that message changed, morphed, and contradicted itself. Experts must needs audience and submission.

VEXXINE SAFETY

From Anon:

This week’s U.S. data for 12- to 17-year-olds show:

15,086 total adverse events, including 909 rated as serious and 16 reported deaths — one less than what VAERS showed last week. Two of the nine deaths were suicides.

The most recent reported deaths include a 13-year-old boy (VAERS I.D. 1463061) who died after receiving a Moderna vaccine, a 16-year-old boy (VAERS I.D. ??1466009) who died after receiving his second dose of Pfizer and a 16-year-old boy (VAERS I.D. 1475434) who died with an enlarged heart six days after receiving his first Pfizer dose.

Other reports include two 13-year-old boys (VAERS I.D. 1406840 and 1431289) who died two days after receiving a Pfizer vaccine, three 15-year-olds (VAERS I.D. 1187918, 1382906 and 1242573), three 16-year-olds (VAERS I.D. 1420630, 1225942 and 1386841) and three 17-year-olds (VAERS I.D. 1199455, 1388042 and 1420762).

2,223 reports of anaphylaxis among 12- to 17-year-olds with 99% of cases
attributed to Pfizer’s vaccine.

394 reports of myocarditis and pericarditis (heart inflammation) with 390 cases attributed to Pfizer’s vaccine.

72 reports of blood clotting disorders, with all cases attributed to Pfizer.

CULT OF THE MASK

Mask mandates, as have been well proved by all observational evidence, don’t work. But theoretical, i.e. model, evidence says they do. Therefore, conclude Experts, mask mandates work. And are coming back.

Item: “Pressure grows on CDC to release data that led to mask U-turn as cities and states say they WON’T change guidance without seeing the evidence – and Kevin McCarthy claims study was conducted in India using vaccine not used in US”.

OLD-FASHIONED SCIENCE

I don’t know how they’re getting away with this, but, in an old-fashioned approach to science, the CDC is putting out verifiable predictions of it models. Link.

Here’s one I downloaded on the morning of the 30th of July 2021, using data complete (they said) through the 26th.

A week from then, they say 2913, two weeks 2576, three 3199, four 3657. Let’s wait and see.

This is both stunning and brave, since if they’re wrong, etc. If they do turn out to be wrong, I can’t wait for the explanations from Experts about how they were ackshually right.

LIES APLENTY

Here’s a screenshot (for when Twitter censors delete the original) showing lying is now official policy.

There are many more of these (do your own search, though after its exposure there are now many jokes). They all appear to originate with a Blue Checka calling himself “Sam Ghali, M.D.”.

His follow-up tweet right below this on 22 July says, “Just to give you some better insight into what is actually happening right now, we currently have MORE patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 than we’ve had at ANY other time since the pandemic began.”

People just can’t help but lie (see below for why we know it’s a lie). Even doctors. We saw this, too, in “Officer Dunn” who told Congress about the 6 January rally:

“One woman in a pink MAGA shirt yelled, ‘You hear that, guys, this nigger voted for Joe Biden!’ Then the crowd, perhaps around 20 people, joined in, screaming ‘Boo! Fucking nigger!’

This lie is just as in-your-face as Ghali’s. Since no one can question a black without being called a racist, and no one can question a doctor without someone saying “Are you a doctor?”, whoever is in charge of us knows they can get away with it.

Also, the need to be part of the story is overwhelming. Long-time readers will recall I had an exchange with another doctor back in March of 2020, who said he was “surrounded by death” because of the coronadoom in Seattle. This was at a time when the total attributed deaths for the entire state of Washington was in the single digits. When I called him on it, he deleted the tweet (and I neglected to save a screenshot).

Whoever is behind the bots thought the lie from the doc looked especially scary, and off it went. We’ve seen these bots before, and we’ve asked the question “Who is behind them?” without receiving any answer.

LINKS

I’ve got so many tips, I can’t do them all in an update. Here are some.

Mandatory vexxines: Durst Organization employees not vaccinated by Labor Day will be fired: report. Vexxine tyranny follows wokeness almost one-to-one.

Vexxine efficacy: Exclusive: Over half of Covid hospitalisations tested positive after admission.

Vexxine risk: Risk of vaccine-resistant variants highest when most jabbed: study.

Expert expertology: ‘The war has changed’: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe. Have to love those Experts!

Fun Pfizer leak thread.

Cult of the Mask: Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review—from 2016! When Experts were far less political.

Also this: 47 studies confirm ineffectiveness of masks for COVID and 32 more confirm their negative health effects.

How vexxines can make things worse (no surprises): Vaccines Are Pushing Pathogens to Evolve.

BOOK

The Price of Panic.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

New Review!

THE NUMBERS

Sources: CDC State data (source), CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Causes of death (source). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday.

Daily tests (from here from Johns Hopkins) have spiked. The Dreaded Delta panic is still working. Testing now up to 1.5 million a day.

That leads to this, a surge in “cases”, testdemic:

We know it’s a testdemic and not pandemic because deaths aren’t following:

Since the UK got the Dreaded Delta before we did, and has a similar vexxine strategy, we’ll likely follow behind their curve. Here are their “cases”:

Attributed deaths lag “cases”, as expected. And, also as expected, the “cases” peaked (as we discussed last week) and are now falling.

Be careful falling for the hype about “hospitalizations”. Most are “with” and not “for”.

What about states? Remember the apocalypses predicted in Texas and Florida?

Michigan total 212 deaths per 100 thousand; Florida 182, Texas 180. Golly.

All cause weekly deaths:

However you slice it, the pandemic is over. The panicdemic is still with us.

How about the weekly coronadoom deaths?

Tell me exactly precisely why you’re panicked again?

Deaths by age, maybe?

So not age.

Then what?

Ah. The media and foolish rulers.

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Categories: Statistics

22 replies »

  1. I am looking forward to the rent fiasco. Now that rent has doubled and housing prices are way up, the only ones taking it short are the soon-to-be-evicted. Payback for living in a house free after the government destroys your job. Your government is not your friend.

    Since the government owns all the gene sequencing equipment, they can create whatever variants they want or need and no one can argue. Sweet.

    The White House assistant spox said we know these things are true because experts said so. The same type of experts that gave thalidomide to pregnant women.

    Counting suicides in with vaccine deaths is as dishonest as counting motorcycle deaths as Covid. And anaphylaxis is very common and means nothing as far as the vaccine goes. One should try and find the trigger if possible.

    There are some great memes on Twitter concerning the Delta variant tweets!

    I now CERTAIN “the little boy who cried wolf” is banned and burned everywhere…..

  2. For the TLDR; crowd (not me, of course), perhaps I can summarise for them?

    “All the data is useless gobbledy-goop”; everything you are being told by expertologists is a lie; and to whinging leftists: please just STFU.”

  3. “All of them saying, in effect, “Get the vexxine! It does nothing! But do something!”

    “Everybody, shut up and OBEY OVERLORD ORDERS!”

  4. What consequences?

    Close businesses having declared employers and employees non-essential, provide temporary supplemental compensation (funded by future taxes), freeze evictions due to non-payment of rent.

    Surely unicorns will discover the pot o’ gold at the end of the rainbow…

  5. @Matt – Rather than bogging down in micro-issues, and given that all the research we get to see is dishonest from conception to publication and then in media dissemination; I find it best simply to focus on the fact that this is *a test-driven birdemic*; and the test (diagnostic PCR) is not valid.

    What Was hardish data – death counts – at the start of the birdemic has become softer/ uninterpretable due to multiple and continuing changes in labelling, use of summary statistics and invalid comparisons – and especially because health services have now been *crippled* by the ‘response’ to the birdemic. If there was no birdemic then population health mortality (at least in the UK) would be much worsened by drastically reduced provision of health services for severe problems.

    Indeed it is absolutely possible that there is no single specific germ behind the positive tests (since the ‘identification’ and inferred structure/ sequence of the birdemic agent was done by piling unverifiable inference upon inference in ways that would have been regarded as invalid not so long ago) – and by soaking up more and more respiratory pathologies (especially influenza).

    New ‘variants’ are therefore best regarded a consequence of new versions of the (invalid) PCR tests. It is quite possible that there is nothing more to it than that – Nothing At All; but of course nobody can *know* the truth of it, because ‘everybody’ is lying All The Time.

  6. Sheri: “Since the government owns all the gene sequencing equipment, they can create whatever variants they want or need and no one can argue. Sweet.”

    They’ve had to withdraw their emergency-use-authorized PCR test because it can’t distinguish between cold, flu, and who knows what-not and COVID, add to that it isn’t a disease diagnostic tool and the excessive cycle threshold levels that can make sheep, papaya, and motor oil test positive for COVID, and then it seems the actual virus has never been isolated and purified so what they’re working with is computer models of the thing, so all their testing is crap… then, how are they determining variants?

    Sheri you nailed it — this is another cash cow for all the testing labs contracted to give the CDC whatever the CDC tells them to find, just as in climate fakery the research money flows to those who produce whatever the Overlords direct them to find. “Sequencing” — it’s SCIENCE! — “I’m sorry sir, your sample of motor oil has unfortunately sequenced positive for the Dreaded Delta! —– OMG! I have to put a mask on my quart of motor oil or the children will die!

    This hoax is hoovering up billions from the people and pouring it into the coffers of the hoaxsters.

  7. Hi Matt, thanks for your work and perspective. Please comment on any data you can find about breakthrough cases in those with prior COVID infections. It appears that “herd immunity” has been redefined to exclude actual infections.

  8. I have a friend that bought a couple of cheap houses to rent out and supplement his income as he tried his hand out on construction projects out of state. At first it worked out great, but then COVID hit and his projects dried up at the same time that his renters stopped paying because they couldn’t be evicted. Since these houses are in Minnesota, he still can’t evict the renters (there’s a state eviction moratorium which prevents him from filing for eviction until September 12, but only if the renters are “ineligible for COVID emergency rental assistance. ” If they qualify he can’t file to evict them until June 1, 2022, and that’s assuming that they don’t pass through another extension to the law in the mean time.)

    Seeing what he has gone through has killed off any sympathy I may have had for renters relying on the moratorium.

    Note too that the media is crowing about how amazing the economy is and how much money everyone is now making (even citing inflation as proof of how well off we are), while simultaneously saying that requiring people to pay rent at any time in the conceivable future is ridiculous and heartless.

  9. Well, there is the military industrial complex with its never ending wars, and now there is the pharmaceutical industrial complex with its never ending pandemics.

  10. A propos that “Sam Ghali, MD” bot factory, recall this story from a few weeks ago that was repeated ad nauseum on Twatter and elsewhere from someone claiming to be an Alabama ER doctor, “Brytney Cobia” (always distrust anyone who makes up new spellings of ordinary names like Brittany): https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/this-alabama-doctor-says-covid-19-patients-beg-her-for-the-vaccine-at-the-end-of-their-lives-but-it-s-too-late/ar-AAMrQ3E; see also https://nypost.com/2021/07/21/its-too-late-doctor-forced-to-turn-down-covid-patients-begging-for-vaccine/ (how can an alleged conservative/traditionalist/integralist like Sohrab Ahmari stomach working for such a disgraceful hack outlet like NY Post?)

    She was lying, of course (she apparently doesn’t work at the hospital ER she claims, and the hospital says no cases matching her description happened in their ER. If she were a right-winger pushing anti-covidvax messages you can bet her license would be revoked. Think the medical board of AL will take action here? Don’t bet on it. A pic of her – clearly a very stable and intelligent follower of The Science appears at the top of this article: https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2021/7/22/liar-liar-facemask-on-fire).

  11. e: “That supposition is backed up in the bodies”

    Data presented by Dr. Briggs is from Table 5 on Page 18-19.

    That table breaks data down into ‘included’ cases that attended ER and were later admitted; i.e.cases that had a positive PCR test before being seen in ER, as opposed to ‘excluded’ cases, that had a positive PCR test as part of their ER admission workup.

    If you use use ‘included’ population that attended ER and were later admitted to hospital, instead of ‘all’ cases, you get calculated death rates as:
    received 2 doses >50yrs old = 220/703 = 31.3% (ouch!!!)
    unvaccinated >50yr old = 131/440 = 29.8%

    Without “integrating [these stats] into a framework of evidence”, I would conclude:
    1. Severe Covid19 really is quite deadly to over 50’s if you treat in a NHS hospital with tylenol and ventilators.
    2. Don’t worry if your are over 50 and chose to get vexxinated. Your chances of dying with hospital care are only slightly more than if you remained unvexxinated!

  12. In regards to:

    Accepting the numbers as is and their circumstance, and ignoring the potential confounders, it appears that regarding death:

    the vexxine does nothing for people under 50;
    the vexxine does provide some benefit for people over 50;
    that no more than one dose is needed for those over 50;
    possibly more than one dose is worse regardless of age.

    We need more information in terms of these folks overall health.

  13. “…but then COVID hit and his projects dried up at the same time that his renters stopped paying because they couldn’t be evicted…”

    By extension I fear that January is going to be a nightmare.

    Renters being chucked out on the street, COVID vaccine effect wearing off on a large percentage of the population, boosters (do we even know what they will contain?), antibody-dependent enhancement (yes it’s real and already happening) kicking in big-time, and thrombotic/neural degenerative diseases emerging (usually showing up about 3 to 5 months after vaccination; prions, you see). It’s going to be nasty – especially since 2022 is a another crucial midterm election year. Things are going to go mad-max crazy.

    If you can escape to a red state better to do it now or even yesterday if possible.

    I predict, as a result of the impending disaster, that next year the Democrats will flip on the vaccines and blame the calamitous outcome on Trump (the Vaccine President) – who presently running around foolishly bragging about them.

  14. “We’ve seen these bots before, and we’ve asked the question “Who is behind them?” without receiving any answer.”

    Who is behind it all? All campaigns, all organizations have organizational structure and hierarchies. This Plandemic is part of a campaign, rolling out according to plan to achieve defined goals. Who is directing it? Who is directing Joe Biden, for that matter. Yes, Obama and his crew are in the organization, but Obama was selected by the kabal and set on the throne. I know Scratch McLucifer is Chairman of the Board and I know the general outlines of the Money-Power kabal who’ve been whoring themselves out to Scratch for worldly power, but I want to see the organizational chart filled out with actual names. How can they carry out such a vast operation and nobody knows who’s running it or how it works? In WWII we knew precisely the organization structures and names of both our Japanese and German enemies (while not knowing the names or precise organization of that Power — same crew — which manipulated us into those unnecessary conflicts).

    A formless, nameless enemy is more difficult to fight. A leaderless, unorganized resistance is more prone to failure. Sun Tzu, again: Know yourself and know the enemy; wins every time. Not knowing one or the other; you may win or lose. Not knowing either; loses every time. For us, our leader is Jesus Christ. We are His soldiers. And we may ally with any who truly intend to resist the tyranny of Satan and his hoard of whores and fools. Now, I want to see the names and organizational chart of our damed enemy. He’s not formless, and he’s not nameless.

  15. DeBlasio was explicit:

    “We’ve got to crush the people at this point and say, ‘OBEY!.’ We tried voluntary. We could not have been more kind and compassionate, I mean, for a kabal of Satanic shitbags. Free fake testing, death-jabs everywhere you turn, diabolical incentives, a friendly, warm embrace of death. But the voluntary phase is over,” de Blasio said on MSNBC last week. “No more Mr. Nice Guy — it’s time for OBEDIENCE!, you effing cattle, you puny, disgusting, contemptible maggots, OBEY YOUR MASTERS OR DIE!!!!! — because it’s the only way to escape the terrifying wrath of your Overlords! FEAR!!!!!!!!!!! ME!!!!!!!!!!!”

    Sounds just like the great and terrible Oz.

    Toto, pull back the curtain so the people can see the ridiculous little men who presume to rule mankind.

  16. Unless there’s pushback by the people in NYC the devils will keep driving this stake deeper until the unvexxed are arrested and forcibly injected. Europe and London have mounted tremendous marches of resistance but so far not a peep out of the poor sheep of New York. Why is that? Will they awaken before slaughter?

  17. The media and political establishment are coming out in full force against DeBlasio today. I find the timing pretty interesting. We know from plentiful past experience that these sorts of accusations don’t mean a thing if you are politically useful enough. Therefore I see three possibilities:

    1.) Despite the talk, the elites are not on board with vaccine passports in America, at least not yet. DeBlasio is being punted for messing things up by actually going through with it.

    2.) They do want the vaccine passport, but they know that it is immensely unpopular. They are hoping that by removing DeBlasio they will soothe the public’s anger at him for doing this, while being able to quietly keep the most important parts of the passport infrastructure in place.

    3.) His actions were so incredibly depraved and the allegations so hard to dispute that they know that they can’t protect him. Given what other politicians have gotten away with this is the least likely scenario, but theoretically it could be true.

  18. Dr. Briggs, Would you please do an article on the decline and politicalization (not just of medical organizations like the AMA) but of federal agencies — specifically, the FDA? As a medical professional, it is extremely upsetting that the FDA will abandon all regulatory approval guidelines and make a political decision to approve the Covid vaccines without credible RCCTs, appropriate follow-up, control groups, replication of data, or reasoned risk-benefit analysis. “FDA-approval” is now a marketing and political label, rather than any semblance of a trusted measure of drug safety and efficacy. Thank you!

  19. Briggs,
    I can’t seem to find it… have you seen any study/data to demonstrate an all cause mortality benefit of getting the covid vaccine. Seems to be the most important question to ask(given all the vitriol and drama) but no one is reporting any stellar data.
    L

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