This is a slow day, with most off the internet, as is right and proper. So I will leave us with this repetition: All models, good or bad, inexpert or Expert, ephemeral or computerized, only say what they are told to say.
This is not a bug, but a feature. Parroting their instructions is what models are supposed to do. Think: if a model about, say, blood flow in yaks suddenly decided to spout facts about interarrival times of patrons in the Library of Alexandria, you’d be right to suspect something has gone awry.
Models are sets of instructions that are like this: “If X, then Y”. That’s it. It is then no surprise if the model is fed X and Y pops out. Of course “If X then Y”: that’s in the code! Even if the path from X to Y is long and complex, so complex it is perhaps beyond the ability of the programmer to see the path.
All this means is it that is always absurd if modelers or propagandists announce, “IF X THEN Y!” as if a discovery has been made. As if Science has come upon some new thing.
Enter the JAMA article “US COVID-19 Vaccination Efforts May Have Prevented More than 1 Million Deaths, 10 Million Hospitalizations“, sent in by alert reader Stephen Shipman.
The key paragraph is this:
To estimate the effects of the vaccine program, the researchers used a computer model to analyze features of the coronavirus (of variants that emerged before the Omicron variant, including the highly infectious Delta variant), its transmission, and its effects, accounting for factors such as waning immunity and changes in population behavior over time as travel increased and schools and businesses reopened. They then compared the trajectory of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring between December 12, 2020, and November 30, 2021, with those estimated under a scenario without the vaccine rollout.
All that is “If X then Y”, and nothing more.
What is the purpose of saying “computer model” instead of just “model”? In part because it sounds cooler to say the model was done on a computer, and computers are good at calculations, therefore, they want you to falsely imply, the calculations here are necessarily correct.
Of because, perhaps, of the hope it will be implied the computer has done a little thinking on its own, beyond that which happened in the modelers’ heads.
Which is, of course, impossible. An abacus doesn’t think: turning its beads into bits and plugging it in doesn’t turn the mechanics into thought. It merely makes the sliding happening faster than the eye can follow.
Anyway, nothing has been discovered here. The model was told to say the vaccine would say Y lives under condition X, it was run under condition X and said Y lives were saved.
None of this is any help at all in discovering whether the vaccine did in fact, or did in falsity, save Y lives. That’s a much harder problem, one that is even impossible, at this point, to know with any certainty.
If a guy is vexxed then gets covid and recovers, was it the vex that let him live? Or was it the weakness of the bug? Or the strength in his own body? How can you know?
If a guy is vexxed, gets covid, and dies, was it covid that killed him? Would he have lived if he didn’t get the vex, which weakened his immune system?
If a guy is not-vexxed and gets covid and lives or dies, same question.
If a guy is not-vexxed and doesn’t get covid and lives, well, we seem to have a clear cut case. Only he might have got covid and never knew it, which happened often.
The vex was rushed into use, then pushed with a fervor greater than Amway. Careful, long term testing, that would allow us to give decent answers to these questions, was never done. It’s been nothing but panic lathered with gross over-certainty since the beginning.
Buy my new book and own your enemies: Everything You Believe Is Wrong.
Subscribe or donate to support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal click here
aaah the computer model – I failed a unit in my MBA because the input parameters in the model were corrupted. When discovered we were all given a “conceded pass”. That’s why I cringe every time someone says “the model says”.
How does one keep him/herself from total cynicism concerning the State and the state of the Church? We could use a little direction on this dilemma.
Your enemies are at it again,
“Of because, perhaps,” should be “Or because, perhaps,”.
“if a model about, say, blood flow in yaks suddenly decided to spout facts about interarrival times of patrons in the Library of Alexandria, you’d be right to suspect something has gone awry.”
But it would be really cool though.
What if the model is a supermodel and is modeling a really kool clothing line on the NYC Fashion Week runway?
But Briggs, top-selling v’axe salesman Donald Trump says the v’axe saved a million billion trillion, and never harmed one hair on anyone, anywhere, and he should know, because sooper-dooper computer models sez so, see? Sure, that might sound stoopid, but that’s just because it’s The Science mixed with 46-D underwater chess by Grand Master Q casting wizard spells through space-time, I mean, real big-brain, top-drawer, first-water, mega-giga-biga-shlomo-homo-noodle-foamo-presto-change-o-rope-a-dope. That’s what we’re dealing with here.
Yea I’ve always harbored reservations about Trump, he may be the greatest deep
fake that ever lived. Look at how the news was manipulated around all of the faux
scandals, Russia investigations, impeachments, etc. burying news stories of any
relevance or substance. That’s been the news model for years but it seemed to
take on another level of shrillness under twitter-man.. His greatest accomplishment
may have been to allow the left to brand anything on the right as fascist. He entered
the fray with with all the attendant media attention and repetition cycles to ensure
victory which may be the biggest tell of all. I voted for him twice but may go back my
baseline of not voting which allows me complain. It’s not an election it’s a selection.
It’s 4D chess alright first this: Dr. Fauci Predicted a Pandemic Under Trump in 2017
and Trump follows up with the lockdowns, riots of 2020, and vaccine after having
failed to drain the swamp much less lock anyone up. The centerpiece of the exercise
being the vaccines themselves with attendant resistance, coercion, illegal mandates,
passport schemes, and digital currency to follow. Add to the tension CRT, and the
globo-homo rhetoric which started under Obama but flourished under Trump
and you’ve got cultural destabilization at a level once thought impossible. The
only thing left to feckless Biden is a war somewhere…anywhere.
I’m still waiting on all the data that proves the injections, “prevent severe symptoms leading to hospitalization.”
I’m sure we’ll see that before we see the Lightbringer’s real birth records.
at least with honest climatologists (like Cliff Mass out of the University of Washington) you can assume they’re testing their models against real outcomes and then modifying their models each time. So short term weather forecasts keep getting more and more accurate each year. Long term forecasts have way more inputs and take longer to validate and refine. So Cliff Mass is honest about the state of global climate models. And for his honesty he’s a pariah.
I know of no such corresponding honestly in the covid modelling world. Maybe it exists. But I haven’t seen any such honesty yet.
The model used to justify the lockdowns in MN predicted, in the absolutely best case scenario, that there would be at least 12,903 deaths in MN after a year. This was in a scenario with massive testing with better accuracy than the real tests, and where everyone who tested positive isolated and did not infect anyone else. Obviously that didn’t happen.
The actual number of attributed deaths nearly two years out is 10,516. So the model is disproven about as much as any model can be.
Yet you will still sometimes hear people say “if we had done nothing, 80,000 people could have died in the first year!” using the same model. (Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they made alternate models to retroactively claim even higher “lives saved.” The original model predicted that in the “unmitigated” case about half of those who would die would die in the first month, after which point deaths would drop dramatically due to most vulnerable population already being dead and the spread of natural immunity in the population. Since it is no longer acceptable to mention natural immunity, nor is it acceptable to say that much of the population is not at high risk, the projected deaths for the counterfactual “unmitigated” case could be made far higher.)
Dear Briggs! I love your website! I meant to comment at your Christmas posting to thank you for everything. Because of you I found Ianto Watt – the first article I read was about the Fatima prophecies, then I purchased his The Barbarian Bible (must reading for everyone!) Then you introduced me to Wolfgang Smith – what can one say? I have read five of his books now. I am so grateful for you!
I also want to say how much I love my Briggs ‘family’ of commentors – I love everyone of you (even the trolls – as St. Paul says we are all parts of the body of Christ and we all know that some body parts while necessary are unmentionable). I always read every comment after the articles. Hagfish! You had me laughing out loud with your “The Science mixed with 46-D …” etc., to the end of that sentence! Happy New Year to all!
Year in Review (YIR): https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/-coffee-and-covid-friday-december-7d4
Eric1 hr ago: (Liked by Jeff Childers)
I don’t know how to possibly add to this (YIR), but I’ll try:
Just give us 2 weeks to slow the spread.
2 years later; now on deck, Load of Crap Variant #3
Lockdowns will work
Lockdowns will help
Lockdowns are not the answer
Let’s try it again just to be sure
Toilet Paper is the answer
We need more toilet paper
Where the hell is all the toilet paper!
Don’t wear gloves.
Wear a mask.
Don’t wear a mask
Wear a mask
Don’t wear a mask
Wear a mask
Wear 2 masks
Don’t wear 2 masks
Wear a mask
Masks are stupid
Wear a mask inside
Wear a mask outside
Don’t wear a mask outside
Wear 3 masks
Wear a mask while you’re standing
Remove your mask if you’re sitting, except while driving.
Cloth masks are useless
All masks are useless
Surgical masks work
Surgical masks are only useful in the operating room
Use a surgical mask
Use hand sanitizer frequently
Using hand sanitizer doesn’t work
It spreads on surfaces
It doesn’t spread on surfaces
Stay 6 ft. apart
Stay 10 ft. apart
Stay 12 ft. apart
Stay 3 ft. apart
We must protect the children
Plexi-glass should do it
Well, that was dumb
Walk single file in retail stores
We will never force people to get vaccinated.
We are mandating that everyone get vaccinated
My body my choice
Your body our choice
An apple a day keeps the doctor away
A doctor a day keeps the apple away
Get vaccinated and things will go back to normal
Get vaccinated wear a mask, stay 6 ft away from each other, limit travel and produce a vaccine card if you want to continue to enjoy your McNuggets
The vaccine is 97% effective
The vaccine is no longer 97% effective
We’re unsure of how effective the vaccine is
The vaccine will prevent you from getting covid
The vaccine will not prevent you from getting covid
The vaccine will prevent you from spreading covid
The vaccine will not prevent you from spreading covid
The vaccine will reduce the severity of covid
The vaccine may or may not reduce the severity of covid
The vaccine only works if everyone takes it
If everyone takes the vaccine they’ll be no one left to do yard work
The vaccine will do your yard work
The vaccine is completely safe
Vaccine injuries and deaths are within acceptable limits
You won’t need any boosters
You’ll need one more booster
You won’t need a 2nd booster
You will need a 2nd booster
You’ll need a 3rd booster
You’ll need a 4th booster
You’ll need more boosters²
Natural immunity is baloney
We’re still investigating natural immunity
The CDC is baloney
Twitter is baloney
Facebook is baloney
MSM is baloney
Brandon is baloney²
There’s a lot of baloney out there
Stop eating baloney
Ivermectin is dangerous
Ivermectin is for horses
Saddle up, Ivermectin saves lives
Ivermectin must be put out to pasture
Boosters will prevent you from getting sick
Boosters won’t prevent you from getting sick
The vaccinated do not need to be tested regularly
The vaccinated have the same risk as the unvaccinated
The vaccinated are doing the right thing
Regular testing is the answer
Regular testing is not the answer
The testing works
The testing is not always accurate
False positives are low
False positives are higher than expected
False positives are off the freaking charts
Quarantine for 14 days
Quarantine for 12 days
Quarantine for 7 days
Quarantine for 5 days (NFL in jeopardy)
Quarantine for 16 minutes
Our patients needs come first
We will fire every doctor and nurse who does not comply
I love beagles
It wasn’t me, it was the sand fleas
Follow the science
“I am the science.” (Uh, oh)
Bill Gates is good
Bill Gates is bad
Bill Gates is bad
Bill Gates should have watched Bob Ross
Bob Ross would say that Bill Gates is a “crappy little accident”
Omicron is like a cold
Omicron is deadly
The unvaccinated are making everyone sick
The unvaccinated are going to die this winter
The vaccinated are going to die this summer
We’re all going to die
Only some of us are going to die
We have no idea who’s going to die
Common Sense is dead
Happy New Year!
The tides are a-turnin’ and many vexxed cruise passengers are very very upset and suspicious, and inflation is overflowing, and they really really need you to keep taking those boosters until late 2024 because “voting,” so gub’mint needs some PR to look good. That’s the real story here. They saved you! Be grateful and keep complying and please don’t try us for crimes against humanity because they really had to drop those atomic bombs to save lives and end a war whose terms of surrender were already being negotiated.
Since we are playing the what-if game, I just modeled this scenario:
No mandatory lock-downs except for nursing homes, no mandatory social distancing, no mandatory masks, no mandatory shutdowns, no Covid relief payments, no blanket liability immunity for new pharmaceuticals.
The output of this model, of course, was an omicron-ish variant appearing far sooner, far fewer excess deaths, continued low inflation, continued full employment, Trump still in the White House, and the pandemic fading fast from our memory.
The modeling algorithm is available on request, but I think you can guess what it is.
Johnno: “…and please don’t try us for crimes against humanity because they really had to drop those atomic bombs to save lives and end a war whose terms of surrender were already being negotiated.”
Yeah, and let’s not mention those POW camps getting bombed as well. Or the Nagasaki Christian community.
Truman considered Japanese women and children completely expendable if it would intimidate the Russians.
It’s not like the Japanese hadn’t been looking for terms since 1944. It’s also clear that the reason Japan surrendered was because the Russians declared war as promised at Potsdam and had overrun Manchuria, had captured the Kurils and were preparing to invade Hokkaido. Japan had been hoping the Russians would mediate in a negotiated surrender with America, as America had mediated in the Russo-Japanese war of 1905.
The atomic bombings were Truman’s political decision against senior military objections.
Of course, if Roosevelt had listened to Nimitz instead of Dugout Doug McArthur, the Pacific war could really have been concluded in 1944.
“Since we are playing the what-if game, I just modeled this scenario:
“No mandatory lock-downs except for nursing homes, no mandatory social distancing, no mandatory masks, no mandatory shutdowns, no Covid relief payments, no blanket liability immunity for new pharmaceuticals.
“The output of this model, of course, was an omicron-ish variant appearing far sooner, far fewer excess deaths, continued low inflation, continued full employment, Trump still in the White House, and the pandemic fading fast from our memory.
“The modeling algorithm is available on request, but I think you can guess what it is.”
My model is even simpler. What did the Amish do that we did not?
And just to be perfectly clear: “I profess, in the sincerity of my heart, that I have not the least personal interest in endeavoring to promote this necessary work, having no other motive than the public good of my country, by advancing our trade, providing for infants, relieving the poor, and giving some pleasure to the rich. I have no children, by which I can propose to get a single penny; the youngest being nine years old, and my wife past childbearing. “
Bad news for the model…
FLURONA IS COMING!!!!!
Virus panic: First case of ‘flurona’– Covid and flu merge to form horror double infection
THEY CAN NO LONGER DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THEM ANYMORE (har-har)!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!
Ooooo I wanna take ya to…
Ooo I wanna show ya…
On occasions such as this, I like to quote Charles Babbage, designer and creator of the first automatic digital computer:
‘On two occasions I have been asked, ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?’ I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question’.
– Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher, 1862
Has everyone heard that the CDC is dropping Kary’s PCR amplification process for detecting the COVID?
So now what do we do with all the phony data that has been extracted for over a year?
I know Kary Mullis is turning over in his grave because he tried to tell us all that his process should not be use to determine disease and such.
Anthony Fauci and the WHO and whoever else pushed this senario should be wearing orange and put in the same cell as Jeffery Epstein.
HOHOHOHOHO!!! 100% compliant Vexxine results from Antartica!!!
Update from Australia…
Tide’s a turnin’
And now more of that wacky Justin Trudeau
Pfizer reminds us why we should inevitably kill them all
Philemon’s list wins the thread.
“Philemon’s list wins the thread.”
Not me! It was Eric on Coffee and Covid! But, I do agree, that list wins any thread!
Even more important: https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/dr-robert-malone-hits-it-out-of-the