Statistics

How Many People Are Dying & Of What These Days

Been a long while since we updated the coronadoom numbers. The big reason for our tardiness is the CDC is always late in reporting numbers, by at least eight weeks, sometimes longer. They compile many early reports, but the full numbers, trickling in as they do in this magnificent country of ours, take time.

Let’s start with the total dead per week: this is dead from all causes.

The thin lines are previous years, as indicated in the margin. Thick red is 2020, green 2021, and blue this year. Those thin lines show a slow and steady increase through the years. That is surely caused by population increase. Therefore, without other changes, such as introduction of the doom, we’d expect the red to be slightly above all the other thin lines, the green slightly above the red, and the blue slightly above the green.

Ignore the dotted lines for a moment. Look at the red early in 2020. It’s lower than we would have guessed, knowing only previous years. Well, 2018-2019 wasn’t a good flu season, and it killed a lot. So perhaps there were fewer old people available to die early in 2020.

The doom, and other things, got going in earnest about week 13 in 2020. Total deaths were much more than we would have otherwise guessed. Had to be something. Like the doom and other changes in the medical system.

We see the initial peak in spring 2020, then the drop. What caused the drop? Can’t have been the vexxines. They weren’t available yet. So again I ask, what caused the drop? Can’t have been masks, because mask mandates didn’t get going, and not even everywhere, until mid summer.

So again I ask, what caused the drop?

Probably summer, in the large. In the north, where people dared going into the germicidal fresh air and life-giving sunshine. In the south, well, many stayed in and out of the heat.

Staying indoors, i.e. locking down, helps spread disease. We have our first clear indication of our rulers and Experts causing harm.

All right, the doom, as expected, peaked in the winter (red to green) of 2020-2021. It got cold and people went inside. Then, as always happens, deaths started dropping in the spring of 2021. Why?

The big vex push was in the spring of 2021, and on through the year. Funnily enough, after the first vex thrust, the doom switched gears and started killing again in late summer early fall (green bump). Oops.

Deaths again peaked in winter, as expected, and even after the vex hersteria. I say even after. Golly.

Now some of you might recall that, using CDC numbers, we predicted that most everybody would be infected sometime in the winter of 2021-2022. Also recall that in summer 2021, even the CDC estimated that about 15% of people infected never even knew it.

Once almost everybody is infected once, we’d expect deaths to drop to regular levels. As we see now in the blue.

Ignore the drop in the blue at the end. That’s the late counts. Start at least eight weeks back from the last point (start before week 22). That blue line looks to be about where we’d expect it, given the other thin lines. Yes?

Here’s a different way to look at it. Same data as a time series.

Same drop off problem here. The dashed green line is a simple model (mine), which only says what it is told to say. I told it to say “Extrapolate the seasonal signal and linear increase”, which it did.

You can see where the model goes awry with the introduction of the doom and its “solutions”. The winter peaks are evident, both for the doom, and for all previous years. It is harder to see here, but the green line now is above the black, even from eight weeks ago.

If we’re back to “normal”, then weekly deaths will continue to drop the next few weeks, and then pick back up again, reaching, say, 65,000 per week this winter.

I emphasize: that more people will start to die is not a reason to re-panic. It is natural, and caused by behavior changing with the coming cold weather.

Let’s look at the first figure again, and those dotted lines, and at the second figure, the dashed black. These are all deaths minus official doom deaths. Recall, too, how anxious authorities were to classify any death they could as a doom death.

Those dotted lines should be in the where the extrapolated thin lines would be if doom was the only new thing killing people. Make sure you understand this. If the dotted lines are above where we’d expect them, it means something else besides the doom was doing extra killing.

The initial red dotted peak surely includes over-zaloused (a word my old sergeant adored) docs cramming ventilators down throats, killing many.

The red dotted stayed a bit high in the summer of 2020, the time of the Great Lock Down, when all sorts of people where frightened into staying away from hospitals. And in ignoring their cancer treatments, and so forth.

But lockdowns ceased by 2021, for the most part. It’s therefore rational to seek other causes to explain why the green dotted line is so high—especially when contrasting it to the blue dotted line, which is about where we’d expect it.

What else could have been killing people in the big panic of the summer and fall of 2021?

Second question: How many readers got fired for not complying with a certain mandate in 2021?

The vex panic has waned, more or less. It’s not entirely absent, but the bug-eyed drooling fervor is gone. Especially after Joe “You Can’t Catch Covid When Double-Boosted Vexxed” Biden announced he got the doom.

Incidentally, if you believe masks work, show us where in this data how they fared.

Here’s some specific causes of death, by week:

Stare at that a while. You’ll notice Alzheimer’s has its usual winter peaks, as well as that spring 2020 peak, so prominent in other causes. We also see that Alzheimer’s has a sort of steady decrease. The explanation is simple: the doom killed mostly old people. Not enough of them were left to be killed by Alzheimer’s.

Look at septicemia. That spring 2020 ventilator peak is there.

You can see the drop in flu and pneumonia. I won’t show it, but flu has finally returned (WHO data sees it). The doom is also now one of the smallest, if not the smallest of the weekly tracked killers. Note that doom deaths are counted much, much faster than other deaths.

Here’s the same data, all together, making comparisons easier:

You can see the late counting affects this plot. Still, the doom hasn’t been important for quite some time. You may now enjoy a death from a heart attack or cancer instead. Or even diabetes.

Let’s break the total all-cause (not just doom) deaths by age. Three plots.

Pay close attention to the y-axes, which change from figure to figure.

This is where the late counts slow us down from making any conclusions about how the vex push for children is going. That really only started a month to two months back, and we need to wait at least two more months to get good body counts. We won’t see any real signal, if there is one, for at least that long. Just the way it is.

Incidentally, these are total deaths. Not “excess deaths”. Excess deaths are always, absolutely always, the result of a model. So to understand them, you must always understand the model used. Which changes from source to source. Don’t go off half cocked, or even full cocked, by any reports of “excess deaths” unless you know all about these models.

That said, it’s obvious the old die more than the young (surprise). And everybody dies more in winter than otherwise.

The 45-54 year olds, and the 35-44 years to a smaller extent, and the 25-34 even smaller, had big peaks in the summer of 2021. Oddly. That was the time of the vex panic. Curious.

The youngest? Well, there doesn’t appear to be much to see in those 24 and younger. This is the group the least vexxed, too. And the group least affected by the doom. Once again, if there’s a vex signal to be seen, we’re going to have to wait to see it.

It isn’t the doom. Since January 2020, just 161 kids 1-4 died of the doom, and 363 from 5-14 (says CDC). More than twice as many died of, oh, pneumonia. There was never a compelling reason to vex kids. Except panic.

Panic kills.

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Categories: Statistics

14 replies »

  1. “Staying indoors, i.e. locking down, helps spread disease.” Huh? This is an airborne infection. You catch it by inhaling droplets containing the virus other people have exhaled. How, exactly, do you think locking down and avoiding other people “helps spread disease”? The fact is, the ultimate way to avoid catching Covid-19 would be to lock yourself away and never come near anyone else.

  2. JDave,

    Best thing is to move to the moon.

    Everybody else has to stay on earth, and venture out for food and so on, as in lockdowns.

  3. ”Been a long while since we updated the coronadoom numbers.”

    Ah, the coronadoom, I remember it well, Briggsy. Those were the days! The world was so young, so full of life, so filled to the brim with wild stupidity we felt our bowels would burst. I remember, in those more innocent days, walking to school through snowdrifts up to my armpits, and being chased by crazy Mr. Poopdick in wig and high heels waving a syringe and screaming how he was going to stick it in my butt. Good times. Young people these days don’t know how it feels to wake each morning eager to see what fresh idiocy the new day will bring. They just cower down in their bunkers amidst the smoking ruins watching bombs blast away at the marauding zombie hordes as if they hadn’t a care in the world. Disgusting. They may laugh and call us Doomers, but we know, we were there, and we lived life to the full in the dumbest crisis men have ever faced.

    Thanks Briggs for that sweet reminiscence.

  4. How do we figure in the 12% drop in live births?
    The enormous rise in miscarriages and stillbirths among vaxxed women?

  5. McChuck–My speculation is that couples in panic mode would probably avoid conception under concerns about maternal health–and, “wouldn’t it be prudent to just wait a little while to see how this pans out”? When you look at the numbers regarding avoided medical treatments and reduced office and hospital visits because, well, why go as the risk of catching the WuFlu seems worth avoiding, a reduction in births makes sense to me.

    Generally, people scream at my response as they “want” the jab to be the cause. I dunno. That takes evidence. Women in prime age for pregnancy (20-39) were not exactly the first or second or third target population for the jab. And yet, that doesn’t dismiss the jab as having some effect.

  6. The only reason for the panic is the leadership of countries were told from a primary source where this virus had come from.

    That primary source knew ground zero from the start and said panic!

    We now have -so called- scientific publication obfuscating the source by intellectually saying “don’t look there…look over here where we say!”

    No deal…once a source of information lies they can never be trusted again.

  7. The unclassified death count sure spiked up. What happened to their ability to diagnose? Hmmmm.

  8. What ABOUT THE UNBORN? ARE THEY INCLluded?? HOW MANY??? FROM Trevor in New Zealand.

  9. How, exactly, do you think locking down and avoiding other people “helps spread disease”?

    Because instead of being outside in the fresh circulating air and disease killing vitamined subshine, exercising and the like, you are now trapped indoors, perhaps with other people most of the time and re-inhaling your recycling airbourne droplets full of the stuff your body expels for good reason on a daily basis. Try it with a mask! See what collects! See what you are keeping close to your face all of the time! Oooohhh THE SCIENCE ™! Aaahhh its Expurts!

  10. Pk

    The unclassified death count sure spiked up.

    This question has been done to *ahem* death

    Unclassified is an artifact of how the data is collected and/or finalization

    The graph always looks like that … last year it looked like that … six months from now it will look like that

  11. John (b)

    Thank you. I didn’t think it through before running my mouth (forefinger) off. Duh!

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