Statistics

Coronadoom Update: Why Are Masks & Models Believed?

Many off this week, out on their last grand chance to cling to summer. As is proper. So you might have missed a few juicy coroandoom items.

Incidentally, we’ll tackle “excess deaths” next week. Not so easy, that.

One thing is very clear: We get a great big WE TOLD YOU SO. Not that it will make the least difference.

MASKS

A few tweets first, all of which are self-explanatory.

I was chatting with a Chinaman—a perfectly harmless, perfectly descriptive word, like Englishman or Latino, that somebody told me is now a slur; Why, I asked; I don’t know, I was told; Which part offends, China or man, I asked; I don’t know, I was told; So I’m using it, I said; You always were an idiot, Briggs, I was told—and he was asking what else beside masks could account for China’s remarkable success with the doom. Lying, I said.

Here’s the official body count, from a country with 1.4 billion souls:

Long-time readers will recall I was cautious, even too cautious, in ascribing lying to explain the numbers coming from China early in the panic. Everything was happening too fast, I thought, for lies to be well coordinated. And, do not forget, nobody knew with certainty what the panic would become.

Well, I was wrong. China was lying from the beginning. Perhaps not about everything, but certainly most things.

The total number of ascribed doom deaths in all of China is, as of this date, 5,226. With a hair under 1 million “cases”.

No.

Even supposing, as we heard early in the panic from the CDC, that only about 6% of all doom deaths had doom as the sole cause of death, the 5,226 number is absurd. Not even in the realm of believeability. It’s easier to believe a Chinaman can get pregnant.

Nor can we credit the paltry million “cases”. Especially given the panic is still on in China. People in certain areas have to be tested daily and must carry tracking devices (like you do, dear reader) on which their testing status is displayed. There is no chance, based on what we know, China is telling the truth.

The doom death rate in China is, by Google’s figures, 3.7 per million. Our World In Data has 3.0. Want to know a country that has a lower number?

North Korea. Point oh two (0.2). They say.

No. China is lying.

Maybe so, admitted my chatmate. But, he said, he had worn a mask the entire time and has not yet died. Quod erat demonstrandum.

I don’t want to dismiss that argument too quickly, because it is convincing to many. We can try countering it with a lot of blah-blah-blah about evidence, statistics, and modeling, as you and I have been doing these last two and half years. Even if we nail that part, and we did, it wouldn’t be understood by most, and wasn’t. It’s much, much easier for most to believe the Expert who says “Do as I say.” And so they do.

It turns out, in the USA, that you are a fascist if you do not wear a mask. Yes. And a Health Supremacist. Yes.

MODELS

Who out there remembers our litany about models? Anybody? How about mask wearers? Any of you?

Here’s our problem. The models stink. They have the aroma of a Portland Starbucks toilet after an Antifa rally. They smell like the inside of a furry costume after the Houston Pride parade. They…but enough. You have the idea.

Whatever the scent, the models were believed. And still are.

It’s easy to see why Experts still believe. “Shut up,” they explain. “We’re in charge and you’re not,” they clarify.

We can’t overcome that kind of logic. But what about ordinary civilians? They still believe, and I’d bet any you show that picture to would not swap belief and doubt. Trust in Experts and “the system” is still too strong.

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Categories: Statistics

25 replies »

  1. In a society where organized religion seems to be on the wane, I believe Humans still have an innate need to look to a “higher power” for wisdom and guidance. Scientists and their computer models are the new “higher power” (and a worse than poor alternative).

  2. See the Regime-PC/Prog (CNN, WaPo, etc.) masking witch, Dr Lena Wen, admit that her insane, obsessive, anti-reality magical-thinking virus-performance voodoo retarded her own kids’ development:

    “Masking has harmed our son’s language development, and limiting both kids’ extracurriculars and social interactions would negatively affect their childhood and hinder my and my husband’s ability to work.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/23/my-kids-wont-wear-masks-school/

    So, two years into demanding pure-blood control group sane citizens should be eliminated from society, she took a look around her own home, saw that her kids were not okay, and says: “No more masks for my family!” It’s all about me! Me and my husband are hindered in our work, so drop all that silliness. We weren’t serious, you know!”

    All that insanity of the last two years? “Never mind. Go about your business. Covid’s really just a bad cold.”

  3. From the cited studies, I conclude that masks are somewhat effective if you change to a new one after every breath. (Note, don’t breathe while changing them.) During sleep periods, you may need a second person to change them for you. (Make sure this second person isn’t already infected.)

  4. “Bottom line:

    They sampled masks from 109 volunteers and found that they are riddled with culturable pathogenic bacterial and fungal colonies which can potentially cause respiratory infections.”

    – I call BS. The bacteria and fungi are almost certainly all the wearers normal flora, and thus 100% harmless. If wearing masks all the time caused respiratory infections, then folks who wear them all day, such as operating room personnel and spray painters would have a strikingly high incidence of respiratory infections, which they do not.

  5. RE: Twitter link of Graphics.

    As I see these graphics, the are presenting the best/worst bounds on various model predictions; each model being under the assumption that no measures at all are taken, but the actual outcome is nowhere near them. Correct?

    On this basis, an uncritical viewer could conclude that the measures taken were an astounding success. Certainly this is what Sir Vallance would claim. This is not my view, of course. But these could be trotted out by the next gaggle of Karens when another ‘pandemic’ hits (which will probably be this winter as things go). “Look, see? We really really flattened the curve! Now wear that mask and stay home, OK?”

  6. Medical personnel who wear masks change them frequently, as do other folks that wear them for their job (painters, etc.).
    On the other hand, most common folk wear their masks repeatedly over a period of days, usually until they look too dirty to wear.
    What most “experts” never take into account is the real world. Real folks don’t even come close to using masks in the proper way, with a proper fit. They are useless from the get-go.

  7. The Chinese government lies?
    I’m stunned to hear that, but I guess I should have known they would, seeing as how they’re communists and don’t believe in freedom and democracy.
    Thank God I live in America.
    (yes, I’m being sarcastic)

  8. Robin,

    That’s why, if a model is honest, it should include projections for various scenarios. “We expect X deaths but if mask usage is above 75% we expect X-Y deaths, etc.” That way when we get to what happened in reality we can compare the numbers to the projection which most closely matches what happened.

    The few times that has happened the actual number of deaths has been far below that predicted in scenarios where more stringent restrictions were in place than reality. In those situations you can be 100% certain that the model was crap. So most don’t bother doing anything than predicting the “unmitigated” case, which we can never observe (but we can always panic about.)

  9. JDaveF writes: “I call BS. The bacteria and fungi are almost certainly all the wearers normal flora, and thus 100% harmless. If wearing masks all the time caused respiratory infections, then folks who wear them all day, such as operating room personnel and spray painters would have a strikingly high incidence of respiratory infections, which they do not.”

    As Jerry has noted, operating rooms don’t reflect the real world. People in operating rooms are in sterile environments and wearing rubber gloves. Their masks are changed between operations, and the room’s air usually contains extra oxygen to keep everyone awake. Even so, Briggs has noted studies showing no increase in infections when masks were NOT worn during surgery.

    Even painters, who generally wear respirators, not masks, take them off when they turn off the sprayer – they don’t go about their entire day wearing their respirators, as some poor souls are required to do with masks.

    As to JDaveF’s (unsubstantiated) assertion that the mask’s “fungi and flora” are 100% harmless”, tests don’t bear that out: for example, a bacteria commonly found on masks, E Coli, is never harmless. Think about the contaminants transferred to the mask every time the wearer “adjusts” it with their (likely) dirty fingers, after handling a public restroom doorknob, or when the mask goes in and out of dirty pockets and purses.

    Not only are masks embedded with dangerous bacteria and pathogens, these Communist-Chinese fabricated face diapers usually contain micro-plastics and even graphene fibers, for your breathing enjoyment.

    In April of 2021, the Canadian press published this, “Health Canada recalls masks containing graphene as it assesses risks to people”:

    https://www.cp24.com/news/health-canada-recalls-masks-containing-graphene-as-it-assesses-risks-to-people-1.5373556?cache=yes?clipId=104062?ot=AjaxLayout?autoPlay=true?autoPlay=true

    “Health Canada has issued a recall on disposable masks containing a material made of tiny particles it says could pose a danger if inhaled. The agency is advising people not to wear masks with graphene or biomass graphene because its preliminary assessment of the available research suggests the particles cause early lung toxicity in animals, though the risks to humans are not yet known.”

    Graphene is not just in “surgical” face masks. It’s also likely in vexxine serums:

    “How graphene in some vaccines can make you sick”:

    https://sciencenews22.substack.com/p/how-graphene-in-some-vaccines-can

  10. I smoke cigarettes and I haven’t died yet so they must be keeping me from illness.

    Yes, the argument can be dismissed out of hand immediately. People are clinging to masks with the same rationality as people who cling to other habits. At least nicotine is an addictive substance – we will have to work to find the addictive agent in the mask habit.

  11. Covid demonstrates two things: a huge swath of people are programmed dupes — and two; the programmers are power-crazed, pathological liars. The Jim Jones cult has been scaled up and franchised. Jones’ cult ended in a Great Reset. We’re headed in the same direction. Taking sensible precautions and making wise preparations can reduce risk. Some people survived Jonestown.

  12. Kent C-

    Our dear Chicom plant Leanna gave a TED talk several years ago where she put her narcissistic sociopathy on full display.

  13. Briggs: ”I was chatting with a Chinaman…”

    “Chinaman” is quite proper. Now, if you had said, “I was chatting with a slopey, slanty, buck-toothed chink”, I might have raised an eyebrow. Only because I’m an ice-nigger.

  14. Briggs is habituated to truth telling despite the nearly universal rejection of those truths by “experts.”

    Bu his Everything you believe is wrong. It is fantastic and easy to steal from.

    I was one vacation in Maine when I read his book and stole from it to badger and bewilder my Fam about climate change.”

    My sole objection to the content is on page 40 where he writes about our Catechism and religious freedom.

    “Errors has rights” he claims .

    Well, the claim was a good excuse for me to start drinking.

  15. Maybe so, admitted my chatmate. But, he said, he had worn a mask the entire time and has not yet died. Quod erat demonstrandum.

    I’ve been wearing my anti-dragon charm for 50 years and not a single dragon encounter! It works great!

  16. One things for certain the human species reacts much like a herd of
    cattle being led to the slaughterhouse. Someone long ago figured out
    all you really need is a metaphoric cattle prod of enlightenment and
    certainty to bait the trap.

  17. Colleges and Universities exist to condition people into misery.

    There was some recent brouhaha at some-such place recently that waited until all the tuition money from every applicant was in, and only then, at the latest hour, announced that any unvexxed would not be allowed to enter the building.

    Get your money back??? BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!

    As Project Veritas also recently exposed, their hiring practices are deliberately discriminatory against older generations and Catholics who tend to be less woke. One guy took the fall, and despite the school board’s insistence, they likely all knew and were fine being blind to it until it was on camera, and subsequently all over the internet.

  18. All of this raises the question – If an autistic Temple Grandin can design an effective hug machine why can’t American men think for themselves and stop hiding behind the Nanny State’s skirt?

    The smartest man I ever met was my F.I.L. who not only designed computer memory drums, he also built a smelter in his back yard so he could cook metal pipes in it and melt them down to be used as ballast for his sail boat he built in his garage Vermont and he had been raised to worship doctors.

    Lord have mercy.

    Doctor worship is a real thing in America

  19. We should also consider that our Expurts know what the Chinamen know…

    Lockdowns and covid theater are very useful for crowd control.

    There is a convenient new strain for every uprising!

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