I did a poor job explaining that The Only Way To Avoid Illegal Discrimination Is To Illegally Discriminate. I said:
I won’t show the math, but it should be easy to see that as the number of Victim classifications grows, the chance of breaking the law must only increase. Even if no one is “discriminating”.
Today I show the math. Because it is important. Not for you, and not for me, but for those who come after us. Because we ourselves are doomed, dear readers. We have embraced the DIE, and we will die by the DIE. No evidence will convince Experts and rulers to stop DIEing. (Even if SCOTUS rules no DIEing, they will find another way to DIE.)
After our doom, there will come a restoration. It is my hope our descendants do not repeat the same asinine idiot foolish moronically stupid errors we lovingly slobber over.
Background: Society is divided into Victims and Oppressors. Rulers continuously create laws banning “discrimination” on new categories. Each category creates a new Victim group, and, necessarily, an Oppressor group to match. Just last week, the Governor of Texas barred “discrimination” based on—and I swear to you this is true, though you will not believe it—hair texture. I repeat: we are doomed.
Definition: “Discrimination” is defined statistically. No Victim ever need prove he was oppressed by an Oppressor. All Victims need to do is show that their numbers in any organization or group are proportionally lower than they are in the population.
Make sure you understand this. For it is this egregious error, this unthinking thought, this pure academic theory, this most sublime midwittery, that will cause our doom.
Now there can always be proportionally more Victims in any group, but there must not be fewer. If there are fewer, then “discrimination” is defined to be present.
For instance, women are Victims. For a long time, there were proportionally fewer women in colleges than Oppressors (men). This was called out as “discrimination” (and various smilar words). But now women far outstrip Oppressors, proportionally, but none call this “discrimination”.
Blacks are eternal Victims. No one thinks black-owned, black-only hiring businesses are “discriminating”. No one thinks the Black Information Network, which runs radio stations, is “discriminating”. And so on and on.
Victims can never be too many: Oppressors can.
Assumption: You and I are going to assume there are no differences between Victims and Oppressors. None. All are equally capable and intelligent. All have equal temperament. Indeed, we assume that there is no way to tell, at all, between a Victim and an Oppressor except for self-applied labels.
Fact: There are only so many Victims in society, and so many Oppressors. There are not infinite supplies of either.
Further, since each new law, like that “hair texture” law, that bans “discrimination”, creates a new Victim group, thus the proportion of Victims in the population usually grows. Though some Victim characteristics can be shared, like how black women are Victims twice over; either way, there is still a fixed number of black women.
Easy math: Let’s start simple. We have a population which contains 13% Victims and 87% Oppressors. A company needs to hire 100 staff. The company will take the first 100 people that walk in the door, since by assumption everybody is equally capable.
What is the chance this company illegally discriminates?
The sane answer is 0, since the company engaged in no discrimination whatsoever, except for the ability to show up. But we are not dealing with sanity.
The once United States of American certified by the Supreme Court insane legal answer is 46%.
Forty-six percent. Just about a coin flip. (Perhaps surprisingly, this result does not depend much on the number of hires; it’s 49% for 1,000, and 50% for 10,000 hires. Company size really doesn’t matter.1)
There is about a fifty-fifty chance this most innocent of companies will illegally discriminate. Which here is hiring 12 or fewer Victims. Because 12/100 = 12%, which is less than the 13% required by law not to discriminate.
Now whether this company will be charged is an entirely different matter. That depends on a host of other factors not of interest to us today. But that they could be charged, with about fifty-fifty odds, is what’s important.
WHICH IS WHY THERE ARE AND MUST BE VICTIM QUOTAS—EVEN IF EVERYBODY IS PERFECTLY EQUAL AND THERE IS ZERO DISCRIMINATION.
The company cannot afford to take the chance that their sane behavior won’t result in insane results. The law says DO NOT DISCRIMINATE, but the company absolutely must discriminate if it doesn’t want to be charged with discrimination. There is no other way to guarantee the minimum 13% Victim hires.
Harder math: The above is calculated using a binomial distribution, an approximation which uses the excellent assumption the population of both Victims and Oppressors is a lot larger than the number the company is hiring.
Perhaps only 12% Victims would not trigger a lawsuit, though it might. Maybe 10% would: with that, there is still a 23% chance 10 or fewer Victims would be hired, and thus “discrimination” found. That is still way too high a chance for the company to take.
With only 7 Victims or fewer hired, which would surely be noticed, since 7% is about half the 13%, there is just over a 4% chance the company could be tagged. Even that number is likely too large in our litigious land.
That 4% is much larger than you think, when you consider there are many companies. The chance of at least one such company sued for discrimination falsely is 4.3% for one company, but soars to 99% if there are 100 such companies. And there are many more than 100 such companies in the land.
Which means it’s all but certain companies will be falsely accused of discrimination—even when everybody is perfectly equal and there is zero discrimination. The companies that are prosecuted will be noticed by other companies, which again will lead directly to VICTIM QUOTAS.
Even harder math: This so far, my friends, is the happiest picture. For we have yet to consider Victim category. In life, there are many more than one, like hair texture and height (yes).
So let’s next suppose we have those same 13% Victims, but broken out by sex, which we’ll take as 50-50. That gives four groups: Victim-females, Victim-males, Oppressor-females, and Oppressor-males, with population proportions 0.065, 0.065, 0.435, and 0.435. But recall all women are Victims, too. So there is only one true Oppressor group, which is 43.5% of the population.
Discrimination in our company can now be found, legally, if there are fewer than 6.5 Victim-females, or fewer than 6.5 Victim-males, or fewer than 43.5 Oppressor-females (since all females are Victims).
What is the chance of this? We are now in multinomial land, with the same excellent assumption on the size of the population.
There is now a 70% chance this company will have fewer than the correct number of Victims. For just one company. Almost 100% for more than one.
This should be obvious, because with the proliferation of Victim groups, the harder it is to get the right number of each Victim group hired—even assuming everybody is absolutely equal and with no discrimination at all!
Recall there are many, many kinds of Victims. Not just 13% Victims and sex Victims, but hair texture Victims, height Victims, weight Victims, and on and on and with more to come.
It therefore becomes as certain as you like that companies, no matter how many people they hire, can legally be accused of discrimination, because it is nearly impossible to hire all Victim groups proportionally.
I don’t know what else to tell you but that this is insane. It is not sane. It is whatever sanity is not.
But it is the law of the land. Which is why VICTIM QUOTAS are the only rational response companies can make.
Saddest math: If we finally weaken the assumption that all are equally capable and all are of the same temperament, and allow differences in these characteristics, as we see in Reality, well, not only does the law guarantee VICTIM QUOTAS, it guarantees that these quotas must necessarily cause harm.
Must cause harm. Have caused harm. Will continue to cause harm.
Which is why we are doomed.
Just so I’m clear: unless the law that defines discrimination by lack of proportional representation is removed, which it will not be, we are doomed. Even if it is removed today, it may already be too late, because the incompetence caused by it so far is too deep.
I repeat: we are doomed. Get ready for it.
1The reason for this is that for most p, the proportion of Victims, and n hires, n * p is the expected value of the Binomial, a kind of mean, so we’d expect about half to be below n*p and about half above it. Changes a bit for very large and very small p. However, all these calculations are not meant to show how hiring works in Reality, which it doesn’t. They are to prove companies must absolutely discriminate in favor of Victims, if they are to avoid being charge with discrimination.
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