Briggs

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…

Culture

Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded

Do you feel that chill? It's from a fell wind issuing from an Italian judge's courtroom, where he has just sent a group of seismologists and one politician to the…

Statistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…

Philosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

The debate between the three views is ancient, and extremely complicated. It can also seem at first glance to be very dry, esoteric, and irrelevant to practical life. But nothing…

Culture

Stand Up For Religious Freedom San Francisco

The strangest thing about yesterday's Stand Up For Religious Freedom rally in San Francisco were the "undecided" gentlemen who came dressed with brassieres on their heads. This was curious because…

Book review Philosophy

Top 10 Essential (Philosophical) Conservative Book List

Today, a classic column. Original appearance 5 June 2011. A list of (non-fiction) books concerning knowledge, and the limits of certainty, about man's relations to other men. The Federalist Papers…

Culture

University’s Non-Discrimination Clause

I've been looking at university positions and typical is this fine print from the University of San Francisco (which used to be Catholic): The University of San Francisco is an…

Philosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism IV: (some) Objections to realism—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

Johnson did not answer ...; but talking for victory and determined to be master of the field, he had recourse to the device which Goldsmith imputed to him in the…

Cary Cotterman on Lady Academics Tire Of Being Judged By Peer ReviewSeptember 21, 2026
Every time I think I've read about an academic paper at the very bottom of the abyss of idiocy, another…
Tars Tarkas on Lady Academics Tire Of Being Judged By Peer ReviewSeptember 21, 2026
"articulating that the checkboxes presume a reviewer who is an objective, disembodied expert untouched by power. " They aren't wrong…
Tars Tarkas on Lady Academics Tire Of Being Judged By Peer ReviewSeptember 21, 2026
Among the many flaws of peer review is the weaponization of peer-review for political purposes. Some academic offends the ladies,…
Neil Jordan on Class 94: Quantifying The UnquantifiableSeptember 17, 2026
At last, an opportunity to join you in the "Quagmire of Marginal Statistics." This and later quote are from memory…
McChuck on The MRS Degree — Guest Post by Johnathan EdwardsSeptember 17, 2026
"South Korea and Japan will no longer exist, perhaps in our lifetime, if they don’t start reproducing or bringing more…