Briggs

How Naughty Researchers Learn To Imply Cause, Though Unproved, Has Been Discovered

Reading daily doses of WMBriggs.com linked to increases in manliness. Forwarding posts from WMBriggs.com associated with general all-around magnificence. Supporting or donating to WMBriggs.com increases world benevolence levels. Now these…

Philosophy

On The Logical Probability Of The Truth Of Mathematical Theorems

I was reading through some of James Franklin's papers on logical probability in an effort to not embarrass myself when I make my speech at the Broken Science Initiative event…

Philosophy

ChatGPT Only Says What It Was Told To Say

We covered this before, but there are indications our All Models chant is not effective, or is not believed. Here is another attempt at showing it is true. So, all…

Culture

What The Theory Of Elite Overproduction Misses

The Expertocracy plus DIE plus universal education creates a positive growth feedback of a negative beast. Each element reinforces the other, and each accelerates the mad rush...to where, exactly? Let's…

Fun

Broken Science Initiative Event — 18 February, Phoenix

I'm late (as usual) posting this. All the text below, with my paragraphifications, is from the Broken Science Initiative event page. Reserve Your Ticket You are cordially invited to The…

Statistics

What Can You Replace P-Values & Hypothesis Testing With, Especially When Computing Sample Sizes?

Dr B asks a question about what to do about sample sizes and hypotheses after the scourge of p-values and null hypothesis significance testing are recognized for what they are.…

Statistics

It Was Always Clear Masks Don’t Work In Stopping Respiratory Viruses

Listen to the podcast on YouTube (if they don't whack it for hurting their feelings), BitChute, or Gab. Dear reader, a full-on spacesuit equipped with oxygen tanks, or with filters…

Statistics

Coronadoom Misinformation Model Says What It Was Told To Say

Repeat after me (yes, this includes all you regulars, too): All models only say what they are told to say. Thank you. Now let's see this headline: "COVID-19 misinformation cost…

Briggs on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Paul, You're right. It sucked. I'm redoing. JH, Very well. Construct for us a model that does not do what…
Paul murphy on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Ok, maybe I need more coffee but I found that very confusing - too much I think that you think…
JH on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
The mathematical result from the Di Finetti's 0-1 Representation Theorem discussed here tells us, under the assumption of exchangeability (which…
spudjr60 on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Well, it is a good thing, that I know beyond any doubt that all conspiracy theories are false. And, I…
hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025
I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…