We are finally at the most crucial part of the modeling process: proving if the damned thing works. Not "works" in the sense that we get good unobservable parameter estimates,…

We discussed this before, but since it has come up recently in personal discussions, I wanted to offer this clarification. Suppose we're in a standard epidemiological situation, or even a…

This isn't so much an extra proof, but a clarification on one of the proofs used in "Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof" (the first two arguments). Calculation of…

For even more edification, read this article in German: Denken Sie an eine Zahl zwischen 1 und 10. I'm picking a number between 1-10. What is the probability of you…

Now that the Democrats are poised to triumph over the House, we shall soon daily hear from the likes of Nancy Pelosi and the appalling Raul Grijalva on the tedious…