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On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking
Posted inStatistics

On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking

Thucydides in The Peloponnesian War speaks of Athenian prisoners dying from "variation in the temperature" in the conditions they were kept. Athens itself suffered deadly droughts at least in the…
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There Is No Such Thing As A Fair Coin
Posted inStatistics

There Is No Such Thing As A Fair Coin

Not only is there no such thing as a "fair" coin, there are no "fair" dice, either. Or "fair" anything. Which I shall prove to you. From Khan Academy, a…
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Congress Mandated Experts Design Plan To Block The Sun — And Kill Us All
Posted inStatistics

Congress Mandated Experts Design Plan To Block The Sun — And Kill Us All

The White House itself, the very bastion of Experts, issued the report "CONGRESSIONALLY MANDATED RESEARCH PLAN AND AN INITIAL RESEARCH GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK RELATED TO SOLAR RADIATION MODIFICATION" (pdf). Mandated. I…
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The Randomized In Randomized Controlled Trials Is Pure Superstition; Bad Magic
Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics

The Randomized In Randomized Controlled Trials Is Pure Superstition; Bad Magic

Why You Need To Read This My dear readers, a complex subject today, presented in the guise of a book review. We are increasingly beset by lunatic psychotic sociopathic rulers…
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A Partial Solution For The Replication Crisis In Economics
Posted inStatistics

A Partial Solution For The Replication Crisis In Economics

I was invited by friends at Banking University, in Ho Chi Minh City, to write a paper with the title of today's post. That paper is here at this link,…
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(Yet Another) New Paper Proves There Is No Nitrogen “Crisis” In The Netherlands
Posted inStatistics

(Yet Another) New Paper Proves There Is No Nitrogen “Crisis” In The Netherlands

There is in the Netherlands a concocted "nitrogen crisis", which has all the earmarks of a manufactured panic. I don't mean in the conspiratorial sense. I mean in the Expert-created…
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How Can A Man Who Loses A Race Be Called The Winner & What Does This Have To Do With Science?
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

How Can A Man Who Loses A Race Be Called The Winner & What Does This Have To Do With Science?

In which we start simple, stay simple, come to Plateau Easy, and the readers begins to wonder why he bothers, which he discovers at the end to his puzzlement. Get…
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Academics Say Morality Isn’t Decreasing, But The Increasing Numbers Who Say It Is Decreasing Cause Morality To Decrease
Posted inStatistics

Academics Say Morality Isn’t Decreasing, But The Increasing Numbers Who Say It Is Decreasing Cause Morality To Decrease

This is part of our Mind of Academics series. I struggled both long, and, yes, hard, to come up with a clever joke to introduce today's academic "research", which claims…
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  1. C- Marie on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I understood much of the logic of this. Thank you, Matt! God bless, C- Marie

  2. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…

  4. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    hudbwu, You could be right.

  5. hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

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