The general theory, methods, and philosophy of the Science of Guessing What Is.
Nature headline: “Timing matters for COVID vaccine effectiveness: Younger and older people gained greater protection if they had their jabs in the middle of the day.” Good joke: “Went from ‘95% effective’ […]
Headline from 2014: “Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report“. Here from NASA is a picture by year of the estimated minimum sea-ice extent, which occurs around September […]
Update See the Twitter thread (and account) for many more examples. NOBODY has been able to find a word yet that Experts haven’t tied to “climate change.” Got an email telling me […]
Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper “Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety” by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph in Climatic […]
Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn’t. Bayes is a helpful […]
A model—which I do not distinguish between a theory—can be useful to one man and useless to the next. “But Briggs, people don’t treat theories the same as models.” Right: they do […]
Video Here it is: And here is Greg’s talk: Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don’t have a transcript of Greg’s talk. […]
There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article “The Gambler Who Beat Roulette“, and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose at casinos; […]
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