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Update: That Silly Asylum Applications & Temperature Fluctuations Paper
Posted inStatistics

Update: That Silly Asylum Applications & Temperature Fluctuations Paper

Update at bottom. I was asked by Axel Bojanowski, Science Editor at Der Spiegel to examine the Science paper "Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations" by Anouch Missirian and Wolfram…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Pew: Partisan Divides Over Political Values Widen, Part II

Read Part I first. On the subject of Islamic violence (see the picture leading the article), Pew says: While overall public views have shifted only modestly, the partisan gap on…
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Posted inStatistics

Death To Those Who Call For Death For Climate Change Denial!

Stream: Death To Those Who Call For Death For Climate Change Denial! Sharp readers will notice differences between the version here and at the Stream. The intro here is mine.…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Video: How To Think About Statistics, Figures, And New Ideas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmMBLTz6Pp8 Hard link to the video. This post ran originally on 28 February 2015. Given the quiet weekend, I postponed our Summa Contra Gentiles until next week. It is a…
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Posted inClass Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That

Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…
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Posted inStatistics

Middle Ground Between Precautionary Principle & Inaction

From reader (and listener!) Phil Pilkington (there asterisks are original): Hi Matt, Loved your speech. Hyperskeptical Economist that I am, M Taleb did us some great favours in outlining the…
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Posted inStatistics

DDP: Quack Cures For What Doesn’t Ail Us, Part II

I'm at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting in No-History City, Louisiana. Here's Part II of (an earlier draft of) the speech I gave Saturday. Consider donating $1 for every…
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Posted inStatistics

DDP: Quack Cures For What Doesn’t Ail Us, Part I

I'm at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting in No-History City, Louisiana. Here's Part I of (an earlier draft of) the speech I gave Saturday. Consider donating $1 for every…
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  1. Cary D Cotterman on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 25, 2026

    Interesting, but he could have said everything he had to say in half as many words.

  2. Brian (bulaoren) on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 25, 2026

    Whatever women's intellectual deficiency, they make up for it with raw animal cunning.

  3. Dan MacDougald on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 25, 2026

    Paul Johnson, the great British Historian, in his "History of the American People," the US started down the road to…

  4. Marbles! – William M. Briggs on Marbles!June 24, 2026

    […] I am on the road and am way behind on posts—I have a 3,500 word article on deriving Oughts…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Marbles!June 24, 2026

    For the past 48 hours, I've been considering a fundamental, structural, problem with marbles; " Marmorism". Some people will accumulate…

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