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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
Read More
How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
Read More
On The Limitations of AI: Predictions
Posted inStatistics

On The Limitations of AI: Predictions

This is on the philosophy (not mechanics) of the predictive limitations of so-called artificial intelligence models. AI is no different than other models in principle, being only statements which connect…
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Warming in Terms of Human and Natural Factors
Posted inStatistics

Warming in Terms of Human and Natural Factors

Today's title is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper "The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data",…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Research: Solar Activity Causes High Blood Pressure
Posted inStatistics

Research: Solar Activity Causes High Blood Pressure

In the Class, which I know all readers are dutifully following, bless you, I often cite Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlations site. It is a glorious (growing) compendium of ridiculous results…
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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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  1. NLR on On The Myths Of ScientismSeptember 15, 2025

    That was a good article by Grothendieck. I'm glad he mentioned so-called progress as one of the problems of scientism.…

  2. Uncle Mike on On The Myths Of ScientismSeptember 15, 2025

    I think I may be channeling Grothendeick but without the genius part. Or turning into him like Kafka's caterpillar. What…

  3. John Pate on On The Myths Of ScientismSeptember 15, 2025

    I'm considering that adopting flat Earth as my model is the way forward, as an antidote to all this nonsense…

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    @John - If you don't know already, you haven't been paying attention for, oh, your entire life. But you probably…

  5. John Pate on The Various Solutions To Black Crime AnalyzedSeptember 13, 2025

    I need a bit more of an explanation about "woke whites" - what exactly they are and what motivates them.…

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