Search Results for “"time series"”

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Statistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…

Statistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Statistics

On The Limitations of AI: Predictions

This is on the philosophy (not mechanics) of the predictive limitations of so-called artificial intelligence models. AI is no different than other models in principle, being only statements which connect…

Statistics

Warming in Terms of Human and Natural Factors

Today's title is adapted from the peer-reviewed paper "The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data",…

Statistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…

Class Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…

Statistics

How Do Scientists & Soothsayers Know When They’re Right? Report on Fourth Broken Science Initiative Event

We had the fourth Broken Science Initiative event this past Saturday at the Castro Ranch in Aromas, California. Which is apparently where CrossFit got its start. Standing room only. Terrific…

hudbwu on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJuly 1, 2025
The wrinkle is in the (pseudo-)random number generator. In principle, the random number generator can be hijacked by a higher…
hudbwu on On The Probability Of GodJuly 1, 2025
I don't think omnibenevolence is part of the definition of God. Not only because, as you stated, there is nothing…
hudbwu on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJuly 1, 2025
> It is a characteristic of the breed—on average: we speak in generalities here—that in any argument women do not…
Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.
spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…