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How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: xkcd’s Global Warming Time Series Mistakes

Today's post is at the Stream: xkcd's Global Warming Time Series Mistakes. The popular web cartoon xkcd has provided a wonderful opportunity to plug my must-read (and too expensive) book…
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Posted inStatistics

Heartland Climate Conference: Day 1. Everybody Gets Time Series Wrong

As predicted, there were cigars. But I missed them. The smoking party left without me while I listed to Ireland's version of the Mr Wizard brothers. A science experiment involving…
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Posted inStatistics

The IPCC’s And McKitrick’s “Hiatus” Time Series Models

Several readers asked me to look at Ross McKitrick's paper "HAC-Robust Measurement of the Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series", which is receiving the usual…
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Posted inStatistics

Time Series And Causality: Global Warming Example

Temperature causes Here is an atmospheric monthly average temperature series: T = (61, 69, 69, 70, 72, 65, 63) (all F). What caused the temperature to take the value T1…
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Posted inStatistics

Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example

Time series are the most abused statistics in the physical sciences. (It's an endless, raucous, peer-reviewed contest for the worst in the "soft sciences.") The Mann problem (is that a…
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  1. John Pate on On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble ReviewedDecember 16, 2025

    Referring to my previous comment, it's nature via nurture. In any complex system transferring the plans to the finished item…

  2. NLR on On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble ReviewedDecember 16, 2025

    It sounds like Noble has some good points. People are increasingly recognizing problems with reductionism. For instance, saying that things…

  3. Bobby Dress on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025

    I’m fairly certain that obtaining my degree from Cornell had the unintended consequence of lowering whatever theoretical IQ I might…

  4. JRob on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025

    I love this debate about the heritability of intelligence. The smart people use a lot math about Gaussian and Pareto…

  5. John Pate on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025

    We know we don't understand consciousness let alone intelligence. IQ testing gets a bad rep though, it's a proxy for…

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