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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To

We're finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article "Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series." Let's return to the Screaming Willies.…
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Posted inFun

Upcoming Probability & Statistics Talks! The Climate, Over-Certainty & More!

Update Classic Posts page link fixed. When & Where I have no idea. As soon as somebody hires me to give them. Since I am out of the system, I…
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Posted inStatistics

Paper Claims Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change And Violence. Nonsense.

When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need…
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Posted inStatistics

Please Don’t Smooth Your (Social Media) Data!

Don't Don't smooth your data and then use that smoothed data as input to other analysis. You will fool yourself. You will make over-confident decisions. It is the wrong thing…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Explanation Vs Prediction

Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…
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Posted inStatistics

There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection

This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…
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Posted inStatistics

Lovejoy’s New Attempt To Show We Are Doomed Does Not Convince

We last met Shaun Lovejoy when he claimed that mankind caused global temperatures to increase. At the 99.9% level, of course. He's now saying that the increase which wasn't observed…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Deadly Sin Of Reification! Day Three

Zeno Phobia Counting day. How many ways can you skin a cat if the number of sharp versus dull knives is this and such. Simple stuff, easy to get the…
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  1. C-Marie on AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)January 14, 2026

    Yay for the Truth!! God bless, C-Marie

  2. John M on AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)January 14, 2026

    I asked an AI: if the big bang theory is true, where is the center of the universe? The answer…

  3. hudbwu on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 14, 2026

    @R W Pearson: Okay good, we're talking about it. If I understood Correia correctly, he offers the following defence: "the…

  4. Tim on AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)January 14, 2026

    Absolutely true! After rephrasing or submitting more factual information, I get even more dismissive replies. Yeah, there are certainly "No…

  5. John M on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 14, 2026

    I think law enforcement needs to revisit how they respond to vehicles. If a vehicle is classified as a deadly…

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