Posted inStatistics
Can We Predict The Unpredictable?
The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today's post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To
We're finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article "Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series." Let's return to the Screaming Willies.…
Posted inFun
Upcoming Probability & Statistics Talks! The Climate, Over-Certainty & More!
Update Classic Posts page link fixed. When & Where I have no idea. As soon as somebody hires me to give them. Since I am out of the system, I…
Posted inStatistics
Paper Claims Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change And Violence. Nonsense.
When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need…
Posted inStatistics
Please Don’t Smooth Your (Social Media) Data!
Don't Don't smooth your data and then use that smoothed data as input to other analysis. You will fool yourself. You will make over-confident decisions. It is the wrong thing…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Explanation Vs Prediction
Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…
Posted inStatistics
There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection
This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…
Posted inStatistics
Lovejoy’s New Attempt To Show We Are Doomed Does Not Convince
We last met Shaun Lovejoy when he claimed that mankind caused global temperatures to increase. At the 99.9% level, of course. He's now saying that the increase which wasn't observed…