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Update: That Silly Asylum Applications & Temperature Fluctuations Paper
Posted inStatistics

Update: That Silly Asylum Applications & Temperature Fluctuations Paper

Update at bottom. I was asked by Axel Bojanowski, Science Editor at Der Spiegel to examine the Science paper "Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations" by Anouch Missirian and Wolfram…
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Cliodynamics And The Lack Of A Hari Seldon
Posted inClass Statistics

Cliodynamics And The Lack Of A Hari Seldon

There will be no Hari Seldon. But there will be prophets. If there is no Seldon, there will be no psychohistory, the fictional astonishingly accurate mathematical science predicting gross human…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI

Review! This class is neither frequentist nor Bayesian nor machine learning in theory. It is pure probability, and unlike any other class available. And for the right price! Last time…
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The Sixth and Best Way to Fix Statistics
Posted inStatistics

The Sixth and Best Way to Fix Statistics

Nature had Five ways to fix statistics, which asked a few folks, some of whom are our friends, how to shore up the sandy soil of statistics. Thanks to Al…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part V
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part V

Review! This class is neither frequentist nor Bayesian nor machine learning in theory. It is pure probability, and unlike any other class available. And for the right price! We have…
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The Substitute For P-values Paper is Popular
Posted inStatistics

The Substitute For P-values Paper is Popular

The Substitute For P-values paper is popular. Received an email from the American Statistical Association informing me of the unusual viewing activity. The email copies this earlier email (I'm cutting…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IV
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IV

Review! Code coming next week! Last time we decided to put ourselves in the mind of a dean and ask for the chance of CGPA falling into one of these…
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There Is No “Problem” Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Theory
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

There Is No “Problem” Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Theory

Update I often do a poor job setting the scene. Today we have the solution to an age-old problem (get it? get it?), a "problem" thought to be a reason…
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  1. Johnno on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 26, 2026

    JAMES, YOU FOOL! There ACKSHULLY has been evidence of Ball Lightning on High Definition Video and on the News! https://youtu.be/dMsGHmGxyxo?si=obuqsc5ionM10SGw…

  2. Johnno on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 26, 2026

    But how much bacteria is on the surface of a smartphone touch screen? The filthy thing we tap with our…

  3. C-Marie on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 24, 2026

    God bless you, dear Matt, and all yours, all the days, and thank you for your faithfulness to our Father,…

  4. spaceranger on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    Two things I can never figure out are UFO pictures and police body cam videos.

  5. Dave Narby on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    There's been some pretty clear ones lately, at least to the resolution of the camera used, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcEEXLOORLI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zkZ3x1T0QU This…

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