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Posted inCulture Statistics

Do Stricter Gun Laws Lead to More Crime? Brady Gun Law Scorecard & Murder Rates

The final installment of the Liberal Fascism review will appear tomorrow. I was inspired to write this after reading a Mike Adams column, in which he pointed to a Don…
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Posted inStatistics

Phil Jones and the Lack of Warming; Or, Die, Statistical Significance, Die

According to the stunning New York Times headline, which quoted climatologist Phil Jones, there has been no "statistically significant" global warming in the past 15 years. Just kidding! The Times…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy

Keynes: The Return of the Master by Robert Skidelsky

Keynes: The Return of the Master by Robert Skidelsky Recommendation: read (buy here). (It's Keynes Week here at wmbriggs.com!) The book's tag-line is, "Why, sixty years after his death, John…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Rumsfeld and Keynes on Probability

In 2003, ex-sailor and then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, said the following: As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know…
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Posted inStatistics

Seasonal Climate Forecasts Do Not Have Skill

David Lavers is the lead author in a GRL paper "A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications." Lavers et al. checked eight different climate models and…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part II

Read Part I : Download the Quirk’s article. To understand why ordinary regression assumptions are bad, we need to look at some (new data) scenarios. Suppose that Bob had a…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part I

Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data…
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Posted inStatistics

Quirk’s: Telling the future from the past: predictive versus classical statistics

Today's post is at Quirk's, the well known trade journal and marketing research review. If you want to read the article on-line at Quirk's, registration is required, but free. You…
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  1. C-Marie on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 24, 2026

    God bless you, dear Matt, and all yours, all the days, and thank you for your faithfulness to our Father,…

  2. spaceranger on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

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  3. Dave Narby on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    There's been some pretty clear ones lately, at least to the resolution of the camera used, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcEEXLOORLI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zkZ3x1T0QU This…

  4. James on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    The same logic applies to the phenomenon of "ball lightning". It sounds credible, but there are no photos of it…

  5. Uncle Mike on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 21, 2026

    Please enjoy your well-earned respite. Warmth is indeed a boon and blessing -- it's in the eighties here today and…

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