There is this idea in statistics called the "bootstrap." The idea is not crazy, but it's not quite right either. Works like this: data comes in, and usually some parameterized…

"Hey, Briggs. I saw your take on the leaked New Zealand vaccine data. Interesting. But why didn't you use [Insert My Favorite Statistics Model Here]?" [Blog, Substack mirror.] I'll tell…

I'm stealing this from Spectator, which has done science right. It shows the UK's SAGE Expert models for covid. In each case, the gray and others colors are the model…

One of our main themes is Uncertainty. In short, there is not enough of it, especially in Science. Which is to say, there is a surfeit of certainty. We drown…

I stupidly sent out two posts today. Those who received the second won't get it again tomorrow. Apologies. Headline: "Scientists Warn 1 Billion People on Track to Die From Climate…

Here's a question for you, brought to you by propagandists: "Could permanent masks in public become Vic policy?" And here's the headline: "Could wearing masks in public be the answer…