Posted inStatistics
Lockdowns Saved Trillions! …. Say Models
Joe Nocera --- read his Lockdowns Haven't Proved They’re Worth the Havoc --- sent us an article from the Washington Post which discusses how much money the lockdowns saved us.…
Posted inStatistics
Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1260234198578802690 "Trust science!" says Deng (lower down in the thread). Isn't science self-correcting? "Yes, that's why it's so great." Then science is sometimes wrong? "Well, yes, sometimes." So how do…
Posted inStatistics
The Tyranny Of Models
From reader Alistair Haimes comes this note about the Imperial College model, a note which will illustrate the tyranny of models. So, the errors in the Imperial College covid-19 model.…
Posted inStatistics
Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?
Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team colleagues scared the world silly in mid-March. They announced they ran a sophisticated epidemiological model which said Doom was on the…
Posted inStatistics
More On Coronavirus Model Accuracy
This post is mainly for me to have a place to collect model accuracy stories. If you see ones I missed, please add them to the comments. https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1247666625958023168 Yesterday I…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update VII — We’ve Got Models (Update)
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, and…
Posted inStatistics
On Cause In Probability Models
Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title "When Cause Is Not A Cause -- Another Anti-P-Value Argument". The post itself is extracted and modified from this…
Posted inStatistics
Two New Papers: Atmospheric Ammonia Modeling
Both of these are in review at "peer review" journals, because as we all know, peer review guarantees truth. Lot of people use what's known as the Ryden & McNeil…