Posted inStatistics
Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores
This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…
Posted inStatistics
Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best
I forgot to remind you of this week's What Are The Chances? video. A truck carrying 216,000 dice spilled onto the highway, and they said the total was exactly 756,000.…
Posted inStatistics
Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters
Unobservable parameters abound in probability models. Why? Where do they come from? Are they needed? This is our first hardcore math lesson. You must read the written lesson today. WARNING…
Posted inStatistics
Let Go Your Wee P! — Reader Help Requested
I flatter myself that this is the best general thing I have written to explain why you must never, not ever, use a p-value, hypothesis test, "significance", Bayes value, or…
Posted inStatistics
Class 46: Explanation & Abductive Weakness
WARNING! If you're attempting to read this via email and not on the site, you might encounter problems: the text might look like gibberish. The LaTeX interpreter, which I need…
Posted inStatistics
A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence
In my forced isolation, which was in many ways a gift, I took to thinking of my failures to convince people not to use or trust standard statistical evidence. Here…
Posted inStatistics
Why Does Science Say Everything Will Kill You?
Everything, Science says, will kill you or ill you. Or cure you. Last week I gave readers homework to go to scholar.google.com and type in "X 'reduces' risk" (or 'increases')…
Posted inStatistics
Magnetically Created Lesions In The Brain & Telekinetic Movement Of M&Ms
Stick with me today, my friends. There is an important lesson buried in the madness, with a wider application than is at first apparent. A reader asked me to look…