We want Pr(H|Evidence), we get Pr(Data we didn't see | H false). And then everybody pretends they are the same. Why why why. Video https://youtu.be/WIZN3BesJps Links: YouTube * Twitter -…

In the Class, which I know all readers are dutifully following, bless you, I often cite Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlations site. It is a glorious (growing) compendium of ridiculous results…

Hypothesis testing has told us what probably isn't true. It can't see all evidence. Here's how to do it right. Video https://youtu.be/5yoRSQMWle4 Links: YouTube * Twitter - X * Rumble…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

I stole that title, ripped it right off, word-for-word, from the Study Finds website, a source rich in The Science exaggerations. I pulled off this heist because I can't think…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

I forgot to remind you of this week's What Are The Chances? video. A truck carrying 216,000 dice spilled onto the highway, and they said the total was exactly 756,000.…