Posted inStatistics
Uncertainty’s A Hit!
It hasn't been a year, but Springer issued its annual report, and, in my eyes anyway, Uncertainty is a hit! From 30 June 2016 through the first two weeks of…
Posted inClass Statistics
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part II New (Free) Software Regression 1
Mandatory! Read Part I. I will ignore all comments already answered in Part I. Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. Update If you downloaded before, download again. This is version 0.2!…
Posted inStatistics
Pope Francis Induces Warm Thoughts Of Global Warming
It's official. Science has donned the leather jacket, slipped on a pair of becoming Bermuda shorts, strapped on a pair of water skies, and soared into the air over the…
Posted inClass Statistics
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part III New (Free) Software Regression 2
Mandatory! Read Part I, Part II. I will ignore all comments already answered in Parts I & II. Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. If you downloaded before, download again. This…
How’d We Do On Our 2019 Predictions?
A strong no prize this year. Nobody did well enough. Not enough specific predictions, or those that were specific did not come to pass. Doom predictions are too easy: they…
Posted inStatistics
Trend Models & The Inability To Discover Cause
The plot atop this post is one of an observable, the cause of which is known to be related to a variety of physical, chemical, biological, geographical, and even sociological…
Posted inStatistics
Confidence Interval Interpretation
This post originally ran 3 November 2014. Reader Professor Doctor Moritz Heene writes: I read your post on CIs with great interest, especially this one: https://www.wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=11862, see "Thinner is better":…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Induction & Intellection: Excerpt From Uncertainty
Induction is badly misunderstood. Here is an abridged and augmented excerpt (how's that!) from Uncertainty's Chapter 3. There is no knowledge more certain than that provided by induction. Without induction,…
