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Posted inClass Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That

Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…
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Posted inStatistics

Eliminate The P-Value (and Bayes Factor) Altogether & Replace It With This

Good news and bad news. Good news it that there is a growing number of people who are aware that p-values are sinking science and they want to do something,…
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There Is No “Problem” Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Theory
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

There Is No “Problem” Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Theory

Update I often do a poor job setting the scene. Today we have the solution to an age-old problem (get it? get it?), a "problem" thought to be a reason…
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Posted inStatistics

Clever Statistical Method To Discover Fraud (Or Mistakes)

This is in the I-wish-I-had-thought-of-it category. A simple tool that suggests where fraud or major malfunctions in statistical research might exist. First, a description of the tool; second, a description…
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Posted inStatistics

Real Versus Statistical Control

The ideal experiment is one in which control is exerted over all aspects of an environment. We desire to measure an outcome; for ease suppose this is a simple number.…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VII
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VII

Review! This is our last week of theory. Next week the practical side begins in earnest. However much fun that will be, and it will be a jolly time, this…
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Posted inStatistics

Nature: “‘One-size-fits-all’ threshold for P values under fire.” Good. Shoot Them All Down

Nature magazine reports "'One-size-fits-all' threshold for P values under fire: Scientists hit back at a proposal to make it tougher to call findings statistically significant." Researchers are at odds over…
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Posted inStatistics

The Alternative To Null Hypothesis Significance Testing

This article jumps right in with continuous-valued probability models, which are explained in Uncertainty, as is the subject of this article in great detail. This article is only a rough…
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