Posted inStatistics
Selling Fear Is A Risky Business: Part Last
Read Part I, Part II. Don't be lazy. This is difficult but extremely important stuff. Let's add in a layer of uncertainty and see what happens. But first hike up…
Posted inPhilosophy
On The Probability God Exists
In order not to make the reader sick with jealously, I will not tell him that I sit on the porch on a bright summer morning mere steps away from…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Regression Really Is
Bookmark this one, will you, folks? If there's one thing we get more questions about and that is more abused than regression, I don't know. So here is the world's…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Objective Bayes Vs. Logical Probability (Vs. Frequentism)
Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…
Posted inStatistics
Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn; Part Last
Read Part V From his page 55 (as before slightly edited for HTML/LaTex): Consider the case of a binary event where the two outcomes are success, S, or failure F…
Posted inStatistics
An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2
The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…
Posted inStatistics
Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die
Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…
Posted inStatistics
Top 15 Posts Of All Time: My Choice
When last we met, that sodden yet miserably cold, supposedly summer-ish day, we gandered at the top 20 posts of all time, as decided by you, the reader. It's not…