Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Confidence Intervals, Logic, Induction
Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Truth of Things: When Probability & Statistics Cannot Be Used
I am always struggling with (my limited ability of) finding ways to describe the philosophy behind logical probability, especially to people who have a difficult time unlearning classical frequentist theory.…
Posted inStatistics
My Answers to Willis Eschenbach’s 14 + 2 Questions
Repost Mr Eschenbach had not had the chance to respond to this article before the two weeks wherein comments are automatically closed have elapsed. This re-post will allow him, and…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong
Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
Posted inStatistics
Phil Jones and the Lack of Warming; Or, Die, Statistical Significance, Die
According to the stunning New York Times headline, which quoted climatologist Phil Jones, there has been no "statistically significant" global warming in the past 15 years. Just kidding! The Times…
Posted inStatistics
Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part I
Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data…
Posted inStatistics
Homogenization of temperature series: Part V, The real Grand Finale
Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Much of what we discussed---but not all---is in this picture. Right click and open it in…
Posted inPhilosophy
Homogenization of temperature series: Part II
Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Aside: counterfactuals A counterfactual is statement saying what would be the case if its conditional were…