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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…
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Posted inStatistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…
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Posted inStatistics

CARB Misinterprets Statistics, Calls For Elimination Of Dust

The California Air Resources Board, or CARB, has issued a press release that shows how easy it is to misunderstand statistics. That most do---fail to comprehend what statistical results are…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Homogenization of temperature series: Part II

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Aside: counterfactuals A counterfactual is statement saying what would be the case if its conditional were…
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Posted inStatistics

Homogenization of temperature series: Part V, The real Grand Finale

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Much of what we discussed---but not all---is in this picture. Right click and open it in…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part I

Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data…
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