New paper up at Arxiv, which is a sort of précis to some key chapters in my book most relevant to probability and statistical modeling. Abstract: There is a third…

I have decided to let you, dear reader, help me finish my book, which I have tentatively entitled The Philosophy of Probability and Statistics. This is about the seventeenth version…

I am not a statistics wizard; an engineer, I value the predictive power of statistics. Indeed, if one can precisely control variables in the design of an experiment, statistics-based prediction…

I've never seen the show, but I've heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, "I want to believe." That sentiment characterizes…

Thanks to the many readers who sent me Johnson's paper, which is here (pdf). Those who haven't will want to read "Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof", the material…

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…

This is from my Classic Posts page, but seems appropriate to highlight in the wake of the latest gloom and doom from the IPCC. If you're looking for just one…